证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 23 日 1Y 同业存单利率有望小幅下行 ——商业银行同业存单及负债梳理 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年下半年以来，同业存单余额下降较明显。截至 2026 年 1 月末，同业存单余 额 19.03 万亿元，较 2025 年 5 月末下降了 2.77 万亿。具体来看，截至 2026 年 1 月末，国有大行同业存单余额 6.34 万亿，较 25H1 下降了 1.36 万亿；股份行同业存 单余额 5.59 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.6 万亿；城商行同业存单余额 5.81 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.13 万亿；农商行同业存单余额 1.14 万亿，较 25H1 变动较小。从发行期限结 构来看，2025 年初以来 1Y 的规模占比有所下降，从 2024 年末的 63.2%降至 2026 年 1 月末的 50.2%。 2025 年下半年以来大行同业存单余额明显下降，或与央行加大流 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - There is a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q1 2026, but the likelihood of a rate cut is lower than that of an RRR cut [3] - The bond market is in a headwind period, and the downward space for interest rates driven by loose policies is limited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10th to 11th, 2025, set the tone for policies in 2026. The implementation timing of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts has become a point of contention in Q1 [1] Factors for RRR Cuts - To supplement the seasonal liquidity gap, the liquidity gap in January 2026 is about 190 billion yuan after considering fiscal deposits, cash flow, and bank reserve requirements [3] - The local government bond issuance plan in Q1 2026 is front - loaded compared to the previous year, with the total quarterly issuance decreasing but a need to hedge the high issuance in January [3] - To reduce bank liability costs, RRR cuts have the lowest capital cost for banks, and can help stabilize the net interest margin and create conditions for subsequent interest rate cuts [3] Factors for Interest Rate Cuts - From the fundamental perspective, the economy in 2025 showed a "high - first - then - low" trend, and an interest rate cut can help achieve a good start in 2026 [3] - If an RRR cut is implemented, it can reduce bank liability costs and open up space for interest rate cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a structural adjustment in deposit products as the net interest margin remains under pressure, leading to differentiated competition among banks [1][14]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - The five-year large denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are gradually exiting the market, with major state-owned banks collectively removing these products [2][5]. - Currently, only shorter-term CDs (one year, two years, three years, and six months) are available, with interest rates for three-year CDs at 1.55% and one-year/two-year CDs at 1.20% [2][11]. - Some banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for large CDs, with examples including a minimum of 100,000 yuan for certain products, while maintaining lower thresholds for others [6][12]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - There is a growing prevalence of interest rate inversion, where shorter-term deposits offer higher rates than longer-term ones, challenging traditional pricing logic [4][17]. - The average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q3 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11 basis points [17]. Group 3: Strategies of Different Banks - While large banks are reducing high-cost long-term deposits, smaller banks are increasing deposit rates to attract customers during the year-end savings season [14][15]. - For instance, Shengjing Bank has raised its one-year deposit rate to 1.65% and three-year rate to 1.8%, indicating a competitive strategy to enhance deposit attraction [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing pressure on net interest margins is expected to drive banks to continue lowering funding costs, with a trend towards reducing deposit interest rates likely to persist [17][18]. - Analysts suggest that banks will not only lower deposit rates but also adjust the structure of their deposit products to manage costs effectively [17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market strategy for 2026, characterized by a "slow bear" and "divergence" in "relative value" [1] - The real estate industry is expected to bottom out in Q2 2026, with sales, inventory, and new construction growth rates having reached their lowest points [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The projected upper limit for interest rates in 2026 is 2.25%, driven primarily by nominal GDP recovery, which is expected to exceed 5% [1][3] - The current policy framework emphasizes stability to address uncertainties and structural challenges, avoiding large-scale stimulus while supporting emerging industries [1][7] - The CPI is forecasted to center around 0.8% next year, while PPI is expected to recover to above -1%, influenced by monetary activation and the bottoming out of real estate investment [1][8] - The market's focus on the lower limit of interest rates is determined by the cost of bank liabilities, which is currently stable at around 1.6% [1][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The phenomenon of monetary activation is reflected in the M1-M2 differential, which has decreased from over 8% to 1%-2% recently, indicating a shift from time deposits to demand deposits [4][5] - The real estate sector is currently experiencing negative growth across all metrics, but improvements are expected as investment growth bottoms out [6] - The sales regulations are aimed at protecting investors and promoting long-term holding, which has led to behavioral changes in the market [21][22] - Non-bank institutions are facing challenges due to new sales regulations and valuation adjustments, leading to potential liquidity opportunities [14] - The macro trading strategy for 2026 will focus on the expected recovery of fundamentals and the panic caused by new redemption fee regulations [15] Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2026 will be characterized by "trading," with structural gaming opportunities arising from the rotation between interest rates and credit [20] - The current monetary policy is expected to have limited room for rate cuts, with only 1-2 potential cuts anticipated [11] - The anticipated rise in funding prices for 2026 is expected to be around 1.5%, slightly higher than the current levels [12] Conclusion - The bond market strategy for 2026 will require a focus on trading and structural opportunities, with an emphasis on liquidity and the impact of regulatory changes on market behavior [20][21]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The resumption of government bond trading will primarily lead to asset replacement rather than extending the duration of liabilities for commercial banks. The operations will adjust the asset structure without expanding the balance sheet [2][3][19]. - The impact on the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) from government bond trading is minimal due to the low net buying scale and the 5% coefficient for government bonds in the NSFR calculation [4][5][26]. - Government bond trading can help alleviate pressure on banks' interest rate risk indicators, providing a feasible option for managing the increasing supply of government bonds [6][28][29]. - The improvement in banks' funding costs from government bond trading is limited, with a potential cost reduction of approximately 1 basis point if the central bank buys 1 trillion yuan of bonds [7][30][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Government Bond Trading on Bank Asset and Liability Structure - The essence of government bond trading for commercial banks is asset replacement, with liquidity from bond sales being utilized in various ways, including maintaining excess reserves or replacing other monetary policy tools [2][15][19]. - The operations do not lead to a balance sheet contraction but may tighten overall liquidity due to reduced excess reserves [16][19]. 2. Limited Improvement in NSFR - The resumption of government bond trading may not significantly alleviate the pressure on banks' funding costs, as the current high balances of MDS and MLF remain a concern [4][21][22]. - The potential for NSFR improvement is small, with estimates suggesting a reduction in required stable funding of about 500 billion yuan from a net buying scale of 1 trillion yuan [26][27]. 3. Alleviation of Interest Rate Risk Pressure - The increasing supply of government bonds necessitates strategies to manage interest rate risk, including the use of government bond trading as a tool to absorb some of the supply [6][28][29]. 4. Limited Effect on Funding Cost Improvement - The mechanism for improving funding costs involves replacing MDS and MLF with liquidity from bond sales, with a projected minimal impact on overall funding costs [7][30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the trend of increased liquidity in corporate and household deposits, indicating a shift towards demand deposits while maintaining a significant level of time deposits [1][2] - In June, the proportion of demand deposits in new corporate and household deposits reached 83% and 95% respectively, compared to historical ranges of 40% to 70% [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates is identified as a key factor driving the trend towards liquidity in deposits, as banks adjust rates to stabilize interest margins [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the trend towards liquidity, the proportion of time deposits remains high, with household time deposits accounting for 73.5% as of mid-year, showing only a slight decrease from the previous month [2] - The asset side of banks has seen a more significant decline in interest rates compared to the liability side, contributing to a narrowing net interest margin [2][3] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates were around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [2] Group 3 - Financial regulatory authorities emphasize the importance of maintaining a reasonable net interest margin to support both the real economy and the health of the banking system [3][4] - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the market-oriented interest rate transmission mechanism to support banks in lowering their funding costs [3][4] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a more significant role in supporting key sectors and weak links in the economy, thereby reducing banks' funding costs [3]