利率上升 2025年年底，票据利率大幅下探。Wind数据显示，2025年12月30日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率降至 0.6%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率降至0.3%，均为2025年低点。2025年12月31日，票据转贴现利率有 所回升，6个月期及3个月期国股银票转贴现利率分别提高35BP、20BP。 对此，普兰金服方面表示，2025年12月，信贷适度平滑，2025年末月大行和中小行提前发力配置，主导 市场行情，开票量高位回暖，卖盘出现长收益短调整期限结构，票据利率震荡攀升。2025年年末，部分 机构规模临时调整，中小行需求纷纷涌现，买方低价抢票，卖盘出口寥寥，票价大幅跳水。随后，多数 机构信贷规模调整到位，买方需求收敛，供需力量转换，票据利率底部冲高。年末尾盘随着收口略有提 振，票价整体再度下降。 Wind数据显示，2026年开年，票据利率大幅度上升。2026年1月8日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率为 1.24%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率为1.50%，相比2025年12月31日分别上涨29BP和100BP。 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，2025年12月，银行提前发力配置，买方主导市场，全期限票价开始走 低 ...

相较于开证金额，福费廷交易规模增长更快，其中伴随电证基础设施逐渐完善，电证福费廷交易规模增速超过200%，年内呈不断增长态势。 （来源：票风笔记） 2025年，国内信用证市场规模继续保持快速增长，伴随市场参与者增多，福费廷交易规模也随之扩大；福费廷利率与票据利率大体同步，年内呈 总体呈下行走势，但也有区别，合理配置两种资产可以提高收益率的同时降低市场波动风险。展望2026年，这一趋势预计仍将延续。 一、国内信用证市场简析 国内信用证开证金额在2024年首次突破4万亿元大关，2025年继续保持快速增长，全年增速在20%-30%左右，开证金额突破5万亿元大关。从年内 开证金额来看，国内信用证开证金季节性特征比较明显，季末月的开证金额明显高于其他月份，一季度和四季度开证金额高于其他季度，年中的 6-8月增速相对较低。 二、人民币福费廷利率走势 2025年，福费廷利率总体呈下行走势，年末翘尾。1月，由于信贷开门红原因福费廷利率如期高开，1年期国股银行福费廷利率开盘于1.6%附近， 随后走低，月末反弹，福费廷利率中枢在1.50%左右；2月福费廷利率单边下行至1.30%左右，自3月起到6月一直在1.30%附近震荡。7月末 ...

（来源：票风笔记） 一、资金面情况 2025年12月，资金投放方面，央行开展逆回购操作37361亿元，买断式逆回购16000亿元，MLF投放4000亿元，国库现金定存发行1500亿元； 资金回笼方面，逆回购到期34542亿元，买断式逆回购到期14000亿元，MLF到期3000亿元，国库现金定存到期1200亿元，共实现净投放6119 亿元。 12月资金面年内资金保持宽松，跨年资金较为紧张，7天SHIBOR利率大部分时间在1.40%附近，年底因跨年大幅攀升至1.96%，1个月以上期 限的SHIBOR利率小幅上升。 源：qeubee 二、票据市场行情 1. 票据市场规模 2025年12月，票据市场承兑发生额4.28万亿元，同比下降1.7%；贴现发生额3.25万亿元，同比下降5.0%。承兑量增速高于贴现量，贴现承兑比 为76%，较11月下降2个百分点，也低于去年同期的79%，票据市场总体呈供大于求的状态。 数据来 2. 票据利率 2025年12月，票据利率呈震荡上行走势，月末两天大幅跳水后回弹。12月首个工作日，6个月期限国股银票转贴现利率开盘于0.75%附近，随 后震荡上行至月中的0.93%后开始小幅回落，最低下探 ...

（来源：票风笔记） 在此前的投票中，多数人认为12月票据利率中枢在0.7%-0.8%之间，在经过两日的连续上行，今日明年6月到期国股银票转贴现利率已经来到0.80%关口， 上行幅度超出不少人的预期，是否还会继续上行呢？ | qeubee | | | | 票据双国股报价参考 | | 2025/12/04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期限 | 到期日 | 全天价格区间 | 11 | 较昨日 (bp) | 昨日收盘价 | 今日收盘价 | | 托收 | 25年12月 | 1.23 - 1.23 | - | 0 | 1.23 | 1.23 | | 1M | 26年01月 | 0.10 - 0.11 | ﮯ | | 0.10 | 0.11 | | 2M | 26年02月 | 0.60 - 0.66 | ﮯ | (ଚି | 0.60 | 0.66 | | 3M | 26年03月 | 0.42 - 0.43 | - | -1 | 0.43 | 0.42 | | 4M | 26年04月 | 0.79 - 0.80 | | 1 | 0.79 | 0.80 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early October, the bill rate dropped rapidly. The transfer and discount yield of 3M state-owned and joint-stock bank drafts across the year was only 0.47%. The expectation of real - economy credit supply within the year still needs to be boosted, and narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening [1][2][10]. - Although narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening, the central bank still emphasizes "preventing capital idling" in the third - quarter monetary policy meeting. The situation of a "lower limit" for repo rates still holds, and the yield range of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit may be between 1.6% - 1.65% [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. 10 - early - October Bill Rate Rapid Decline - The "five - factor method" shows that central bank investment, commercial bank credit supply, and fiscal factors may all be favorable to the capital market in the fourth quarter, indicating an endogenous basis for loosening of narrow - sense liquidity. The rapid decline in the transfer and discount yield of 3M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts across the year in early October implies poor expectations for real - economy credit supply in the fourth quarter by commercial banks, which is favorable to narrow - sense liquidity. On October 9, the transfer and discount yields of overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, and 6M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts were 1.28%, 1.28%, 1.19%, 0.47%, and 0.77% respectively [2][10]. 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Investment in Outright Repos - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (October 9 - 10), the central bank's pledged repos had a net withdrawal of 16423 billion yuan. As of October 10, the central bank's repo balance was 10210 billion yuan, significantly lower than on September 30 but still slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. The commercial bank system's excess reserves still depend on central bank investment [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the total maturity amount of outright repos was 13000 billion yuan, and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank renewed 11000 billion yuan of 3M outright repos, with an excess renewal of 3000 billion yuan [13]. 2.2 Institution's Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Strong Supply and Demand - Fund supply: On October 10, large - scale banks' net fund lending (flow concept) was 38608 billion yuan, an increase of 14269 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 45983 billion yuan, an increase of 3652 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of money market funds was 18758 billion yuan, a decrease of 437 billion yuan compared to September 30. In early October, joint - stock commercial banks had large - scale net borrowing, and the net borrowing amount was at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [16]. - Fund demand: On October 10, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase of bonds in the whole market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3358 billion yuan compared to September 30. The whole - market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to September 30. The leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to September 30 [26]. 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Volume Increase and Price Decrease at the Beginning of the Month - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the volume of the inter - bank pledged repo market increased while the price decreased, in line with the seasonal pattern at the beginning of the month. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos was 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 24969 billion yuan compared to September 29 - 30. The median R001 was 1.37%, a decrease of 9bp compared to September 29 - 30. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 4.4bp, a decrease of 6.3bp; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 13.2bp, an increase of 2.3bp, indicating small liquidity friction [28][30]. - Fund sentiment index: At the beginning of the month, the fund market was seasonally loose, and the fund sentiment index was around 50, generally loosening in the afternoon [32]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Increase The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate decreased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.56%, a decrease of 2bp compared to last week, and the interest rate was at the 12% quantile since 2020 [33]. 3. Government Bonds: Low Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - Affected by the holiday, the net payment of government bonds was small in the past week. In the coming week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 852 billion yuan, with a relatively low overall net payment pressure. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds is 1261 billion yuan, and local bonds have a net repayment of 409 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, and small on other weekdays [37]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of October 11, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.8%, an increase of 2.8% in the past week, with about 1.08 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6%, with 0.85 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space in 2025. The issuance progress of refinancing special bonds was 99.8%. Recently, the net supply scale of treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds has slowed down, but the issuance rhythm of new local bonds may still be relatively fast in October [38]. 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significant Decline in Net Financing Scale, and the Pressure on Banks' Long - term Liabilities May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yield - On October 10, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.45%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.68% respectively. Among them, overnight, 7 - day, and 1M increased by - 6bp, 5bp, and - 1bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged. The yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks on October 10 were 1.84%, 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.27%, and 2.33% respectively. Among them, 1M and 3M decreased by 1bp and 6bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged [42]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (October 9 - 10), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 16.52 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 70%, 7%, 5%, 8%, and 10% respectively. Among them, 1M increased by 59.19 percentage points compared to last week, while 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 16.75 percentage points, 13.39 percentage points, 13.11 percentage points, and 15.93 percentage points respectively compared to last week [46]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 10, the spread between the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit and R007 was 18bp, at the 37% quantile since 2020. The spread between the yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds and 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 18bp, at the 41% quantile since 2020 [49].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious based on certificates of deposit (CDs) and interest rate swaps [1]. - The central bank's continuous "incremental renewal" of MLF for seven months indicates its care for the capital market, and it is expected that the cross - quarter liquidity will be generally stable, with the capital market likely to ease after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs CDs and Interest Rate Swaps - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 969.21 billion yuan, and the issuance was 791.87 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 177.34 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.69%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 168.84 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [1]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.57%, up from the previous week [1]. Repurchase Market - Last week, the pledged repurchase trading volume was between 6.7 trillion and 7.6 trillion yuan. The average R001 repurchase trading volume was 5.5536 trillion yuan, down 724.7 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repurchase balance was 12.2 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [2]. - By institution, the lending scale of large banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and funds decreased, while that of wealth management increased. As of Friday, the reverse repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 4.28 trillion yuan and 2.48 trillion yuan, down 110.3 billion yuan and up 145 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.76 trillion yuan, 1.97 trillion yuan, and 867.5 billion yuan, down 30.7 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and up 122.8 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [2]. Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.85%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decline in bill interest rates indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in the demand for bill volume - boosting [3]. - Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.13, up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since July. The US also announced the PCE price index for August, showing that the increase in personal consumption expenditure in August exceeded expectations, and the basic inflation pressure remained stable [3]. Capital Market and Policy - Last week, the open market had a maturity of 2.1268 trillion yuan, including 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open market made a total investment of 3.0674 trillion yuan, including 1.5674 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase, and 600 billion yuan of MLF, with a net investment of 940.6 billion yuan [6]. - Last week, the capital market was generally tight. The average DR007 was 1.54%, up 2BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.62%, up 10BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.41% and 1.46% respectively. The exchange repurchase interest rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.82%, up 29BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 2.4674 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [6]. This Week's Focus - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 516.6 billion yuan, all of which are reverse repurchase maturities [4]. - On Monday, the eurozone's economic sentiment index for September will be announced; on Tuesday, China's official manufacturing PMI for September will be announced; on Wednesday, the eurozone's harmonized CPI for September will be announced; on Friday, the US non - farm payroll data for September will be announced. There may also be a Politburo meeting this week [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the main factors influencing bill interest rates, proposing a framework that includes funding rates, credit and social financing, and monetary policy as the three primary influences on bill interest rates since 2019 [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Bill Interest Rates - The bill market serves as a crucial channel for short-term financing for enterprises, with interest rate fluctuations influenced by multiple factors [2]. - The first factor is funding rates, which have a significant impact on bill prices, as evidenced by various studies showing a strong correlation between funding rates and bill interest rates [2]. - The second factor is credit and social financing scale, where the relationship between credit scale and bill interest rates is complex, with recent studies indicating a correlation that is more suitable for longer-term analysis [3]. - The third factor is monetary policy, which affects funding rates and total funds, with bill interest rates acting as a leading indicator of monetary policy changes [4]. Group 2: Data Selection and Main Conclusions - The observation period for the analysis spans from 2019 to June 2025, focusing on monthly weighted rates of 3M and 6M national bank discounted bills [5]. - Empirical results indicate a strong correlation between the three influencing factors and bill interest rates [6]. Group 3: Results Analysis - Funding rates show a clear positive correlation with bill interest rates, with variations in the relationship observed over different periods [10]. - The ratio of undiscussed bills to bill financing is positively correlated with bill interest rates, while the ratio of bill financing to short-term loans is negatively correlated [11]. - Monetary policy tools, particularly quantity-based tools, have a significant impact on bill interest rates, although the correlation is relatively weak compared to other factors [12]. Group 4: Future Research Directions - Future research could focus on refining the modeling of the three factors and their dynamic relationships with bill interest rates, including the use of text mining techniques for more timely data extraction [14][15]. - Additionally, exploring the temporal changes in the influence of these factors on bill interest rates during significant market events could provide deeper insights into market dynamics [15].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant rise, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increasing by 0.52% as of 10:00 AM [1] - The latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2509) was 119.07 yuan, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 46,165 contracts and a total open interest of 117,716 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw increases, with the 10-year bond (T2509) up 0.16%, the 5-year bond (TF2509) up 0.07%, and the 2-year bond (TS2509) up 0.01% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan, maintaining a bid rate of 1.40% [1] - Major interbank interest rates for government bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 3.25 basis points to 1.715% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 4 basis points to 1.921% [1] Bond Market Insights - As the end of July approached, bill rates fell sharply, with the 1-month corporate acceptance bill rate dropping to 0.01% [2] - The demand from small and medium-sized institutions, represented by rural commercial banks, was strong, indicating insufficient credit issuance in July [2] - Major banks have been actively purchasing bills, with net purchases exceeding 210 billion yuan from July 21 to 25 and over 500 billion yuan for the entire month, compared to just over 120 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 30-year government bond yield declining nearly 4 basis points and other maturities recovering by 2-3 basis points [2] Investment Product Highlight - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes [3] - This product allows investors to engage in day trading for profit and helps in extending portfolio duration or hedging equity positions [3] - It serves as a high-elasticity cash management tool and a duration adjustment tool, making it attractive for investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the bill discount rates in the market, particularly highlighting the sharp decline on July 30, 2023, and the implications for credit demand and supply dynamics in the banking sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1]. - The bill discount rates experienced a dramatic drop, with the 6-month bill discount rate falling to 0.2%, marking a 30 basis point decrease from the previous day [2]. - The 3-month and 6-month bill discount rates rebounded significantly in the afternoon after reaching historical lows, indicating a volatile supply-demand balance in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends - July is traditionally a "small month" for credit, leading to expectations of a seasonal decline in credit issuance, which is reflected in the lower bill discount rates [4][5]. - The 6-month bill discount rate has shown a downward trend throughout July, dropping from 1.19% at the end of June to 0.41%, a decrease of 78 basis points [3][4]. Group 3: Credit Demand and Supply - The article notes that the bill discount rates have been influenced by banks' shifting preferences towards short-term loans, which have reduced the demand for bills [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that the recent fluctuations in bill rates are symptomatic of a broader imbalance in supply and demand within the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors and changing lending practices [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Data Insights - In June, the total new corporate loans reached 1.77 trillion yuan, with short-term loans contributing significantly to this figure, reflecting a trend towards short-term financing over bill financing [5][6]. - The current spread between bill rates and other financial instruments, such as government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, has reached new highs, indicating a potential misalignment in market pricing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in bill discount rates indicates a potential weakening in credit demand, with the 6-month bill discount rate falling to a historical low of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On July 30, the bill discount rates experienced a sharp decline, with the maximum drop reaching 50 basis points (BP) [1] - The 3-month and 6-month bill varieties rebounded in the afternoon, with increases of over 20 BP [1] Group 2: Credit Demand Indicators - The decline in bill rates is viewed as a leading indicator of credit issuance sentiment, suggesting weaker credit demand [1] - July is traditionally a "small month" for credit issuance, and a seasonal decline in credit allocation is expected [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bill market's function as a credit "barometer" has weakened this year due to short-term lending surges, leading to reduced demand for bills [1] - Changes in supply chain payment terms in certain industries have reinforced the substitution effect, impacting bill rates [1]