（来源：票风笔记） 在春节后首个工作日票据利率走平之后，票据利率已连续两个工作日大幅上行，2026年2月26日，票据利率继续全线攀升，6个月期限国股银票转贴现利率 单日上行9BP至1.33%，创年内新高，而且年内首次来到国债利率上方。 一、日内行情（2-26） | qeubee | | | | 票据双国股报价参考 | | 2026/02/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期限 | 到期日 | 全天价格区间 | 11 | 较昨日 (bp) | 昨日收盘价 | 今日收盘价 | | 托收 | 26年02月 | 1.18 - 1.18 | - | 0 | 1.18 | 1.18 | | 1M | 26年03月 | 1.05 - 1.50 | | 50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | | 2M | 26年04月 | 1.25 - 1.50 | 9 | 25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | | 3M | 26年05月 | 1.25 - 1.50 | 9 | 25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | | 4M | 26年06月 | 1.15 - 1.43 | ...

| | | （来源：票风笔记） 2026年2月24日，春节后的第一个工作日，票据利率基本走平，日内微降后回弹。从昨日至今投票来看，市场对于2月底票据利率存在较大分歧。 一、日内行情（2-24） 二、历史行情 2026年2月首个工作日，票据利率大幅低开，7月到期国股银票转贴现利率大幅下行28BP至0.83%，8月到期国股银票则成交于0.85%附近。次日票据利率开 始触底反弹，随后票据利率逐步回升，春节前一周上行幅度尤为明显，2月14日，8月到期国股银票转贴现利率已上升至1.15%。2月24日，春节后的第一 个工作日，票据利率基本保持平稳，8月到期国股银票转贴现利率继续保持在1.15%。 上午，市场交投清淡，买卖双方处于观望状态，部分大行出票，临近中午标杆大行抬价入场收8月票据，买盘主要为以农商行为代表的中小机构，期 限集中在3月和8月到期票据，带动对于期限票据利率小幅下行，7月到期票据买盘不多略有上行。截至午盘，3月到期国股银票下降5BP至0.85%，7 月到期国股银票上升1BP至1.07%，8月到期国股银票下降1BP至1.14%。 下午，6月、8月票据卖盘增多，利率临近尾盘略有上行，8月国股银票利率回到开盘利 ...

| qeubee | | | | 票据双国股报价参考 | | 2026/02/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期限 | 到期日 | 全天价格区间 | 11 | 较昨日 (bp) | 昨日收盘价 | 今日收盘价 | | 托收 | 26年02月 | 1.18 - 1.18 | - | 0 | 1.18 | 1.18 | | 1M | 26年03月 | 0.50 - 1.00 | 个 | 50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | | 2M | 26年04月 | 1.10 - 1.18 | ﮯ | 8 | 1.10 | 1.18 | | 3M | 26年05月 | 1.07 - 1.18 | 1 | 11 | 1.07 | 1.18 | | 4M | 26年06月 | 1.05 - 1.10 | 个 | 5 | 1.05 | 1.10 | | 5M | 26年07月 | 0.95 - 1.01 | e- | ត្រី | 0.95 | 1.01 | | 6M | 26年08月 | 1.07 - 1.14 | | 5 | 1.07 | 1.12 | 二、 ...

（来源：票风笔记） 一、资金面情况 本周为2026年2月第一周（2026年2月2日-2月6日），央行逆回购到期17615亿元，买断式逆回购到期7000亿元；央行开展逆回购操作10055亿 元，开展买断式逆回购8000亿元，本周实现净回笼6560亿元。月初资金面趋于宽松，周五，DR001较上周五下降5BP至1.28%，DR007较上周 五下降13BP至1.46%，略高于7天逆回购利率1.40%。 源：qeubee 数据来 二、票据市场行情 周一，2月第一个交易日，在市场预期票据利率大幅低开的情绪下，早盘国有大行降价入场收票，带动票据利率开盘走低，7月到期国股银票 开盘于0.88%，国有大行和城商行积极收票，买盘需求旺盛，卖盘主要为非银，卖盘惜售，供不应求下票据利率日内继续下行，7月到期国股 银票最终下行至0.83%收盘。5月到期国股银票转贴现利率下降55BP至0.90%；7月到期国股银票转贴现利率下降28BP至0.83%；8月到期国股银 票少量成交于0.85%附近。 周二，早盘多家国有大行继续降价收票，部分卖盘仍捂盘惜售，各期限票据利率继续惯性下行，7月到期国股银票利率最低下降至0.75%。但 大行并未跟随继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has a conservative expectation for January's credit growth, influenced by factors such as the smoothing of credit issuance before the end of 2025 and the performance of the bill market [1] Group 1: Credit Market Expectations - January is traditionally a significant month for credit issuance, but expectations for this year are subdued, with some analysts predicting new loans to be around 5 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's levels [1][7] - The bill market, which combines both funding and credit attributes, is seen as a leading indicator for bank credit issuance, and the recent decline in bill rates has raised concerns about the strength of credit demand [2][3] Group 2: Bill Market Trends - In January, the six-month bill discount rate initially rose to 1.29% but then fell to a low of 1.07%, indicating a 22 basis point fluctuation, which is atypical for this time of year [2] - The three-month bill discount rate fluctuated between 1.30% and 1.50%, with a notable decline towards the end of the month, suggesting weaker credit demand than expected [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Predictions - Historically, January is a peak month for credit issuance, with new loans from 2019 to 2025 averaging between 3.23 trillion yuan and 5.13 trillion yuan, but this year is expected to be flat compared to last year [6] - Some institutions predict that January's new loans will be between 5.2 trillion and 5.5 trillion yuan, with a significant portion expected to be issued from mid-January onwards [6][7]

（来源：票风笔记） 2026年1月，票据利率高开并上行至1.28%后便步入下行通道。本周为1月最后一周，票据利率波动明显加大，今日（1月26日），7月到期国股银票转贴现 利率单日下行5BP至1.08%，月内首次跌破1.10%关口。 二、历史行情 2026年1月，票据利率总体呈震荡下行走势。月初呈现高开高走态势，首个工作日，6月到期国股银票转贴现利率大幅高开29BP至1.24%，7月到期国股银 票转贴现利率开盘于1.20%附近；随后票据利率继续上行，7月到期国股银票最高上行至1.28%，此后便步入下行通道，7月到期国股银票一路下行至1.14% 附近，随后窄幅震荡多日。 本周进入1月的最后一周，市场不确定性因素增多，票据利率波动开始加大，周一（1月26日），票据利率便快速下行，7月到期国股银票转贴现利率单日 下行5BP至1.08%，月内首次跌破1.10%关口。 一、日内行情（1-26） 上午，周一票据一级市场供给偏低，转贴卖盘较少；部分国有大行早盘接近市场价收票，农商行和非银亦在收票，买盘显著多于卖盘，票据利率快 速下行。票据利率大幅下行后，卖盘逐渐增多，利率趋于平稳。截至午盘，3月到期国股银票下降5BP至1.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new regulations in 2023 has led to a reduction in the maximum term of notes to 6 months, with a consistent downward trend in note interest rates observed over the years, particularly with a notable decrease in volatility expected in 2025 [1][11]. Group 1: 2023 Note Interest Rate Trends - The overall trend for note interest rates in 2023 was downward, peaking at 2.59% at the end of March and dropping to a low of 0.97% by the end of July, with an annual average of 1.64% [2][12]. - Monthly fluctuations were significant, with extreme market conditions occurring frequently at month-end [2][12]. Group 2: 2024 Note Interest Rate Trends - In 2024, the note interest rates continued to trend downward, reaching a high of 2.29% in early January and a low of 0.58% by the end of December, with an annual average of 1.30% [4][14]. - Compared to 2023, the volatility of interest rates in 2024 was reduced, although significant fluctuations still occurred at month-end [4][14]. Group 3: 2025 Note Interest Rate Trends - The trend for note interest rates in 2025 remained downward, starting the year at a high of 1.60% and dropping to a low of 0.20% by the end of October, with an annual average of 0.95% [5][15]. - The volatility of interest rates further decreased in 2025, with fewer occurrences of extreme fluctuations at month-end [5][15]. Group 4: Summary of Three-Year Trends - The average interest rate has been decreasing year by year, with the average for 2023 at 1.64%, 2024 at 1.30%, and 2025 at 0.95%, indicating a reduction of approximately 35 basis points each year [9][19]. - The number of extreme fluctuations (defined as movements over 20 basis points) decreased from 7 occurrences in both 2023 and 2024 to 4 occurrences in 2025, reflecting a significant reduction in volatility [10][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in bill discount rates at the beginning of 2026, highlighting a sharp increase in rates compared to the end of 2025, driven by changes in credit supply and demand dynamics in the banking sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bill Discount Rate Trends - As of January 8, 2026, the 6-month and 3-month national bank bill discount rates rose to 1.24% and 1.50%, respectively, marking increases of 29 basis points (BP) and 100 BP from December 31, 2025 [1]. - On December 30, 2025, the 6-month and 3-month national bank bill discount rates hit their lowest points at 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, before experiencing a rebound at the end of the year [2]. - The 6-month bill discount rate increased by 60 BP to 1.20% on January 4, 2026, and the 3-month rate rose by 100 BP to 1.30% on the same day, indicating a strong recovery in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - In December 2025, banks proactively adjusted their configurations, leading to a buyer-dominated market and a subsequent decline in bill prices, which were later slightly supported by year-end trading [1][2]. - The performance assessment of banks is shifting from a focus on quantity to quality, which may reduce the impact of volume-driven factors on bill discount rate trends in the future [4]. - The structure of social financing is evolving from being primarily credit-based to incorporating bonds and equity financing, suggesting a potential decrease in the influence of credit volume on bill rates [4].

Group 1: Domestic Letter of Credit Market Analysis - The domestic letter of credit issuance amount surpassed 4 trillion yuan in 2024 and is expected to continue rapid growth in 2025, with an annual growth rate of approximately 20%-30%, breaking through 5 trillion yuan [2][13] - The issuance amount exhibits seasonal characteristics, with significantly higher amounts at the end of each quarter, particularly in the first and fourth quarters, while growth is relatively lower from June to August [2][13] - The forfaiting transaction scale is growing even faster, with electronic forfaiting transactions increasing by over 200% due to the improvement of electronic document infrastructure [4][15] Group 2: Renminbi Forfaiting Rate Trends - In 2025, the overall trend of forfaiting rates is downward, with a year-end rebound. The one-year national bank forfaiting rate opened at around 1.6% in January, then decreased, stabilizing around 1.50% by the end of the month [6][17] - By February, the forfaiting rate declined to approximately 1.30%, remaining stable around this level until June. A rapid decline to 1.00% occurred by the end of July, with fluctuations around this rate for the following months, ending the year at 1.35% [6][17] - Compared to 2024, the forfaiting rate in 2025 started lower and exhibited reduced volatility, with the average rate in January 2025 at 1.50%, down 70 basis points from 2.20% in January 2024 [8][19] Group 3: Forfaiting and Bill Rates - The forfaiting rates and bill rates generally follow a similar trend in 2025, although there are moments of divergence, with forfaiting rates showing significantly less volatility [10][20] - The average spread between six-month forfaiting and bill rates was 25 basis points, with notable differences across months; the spread was smaller in the first half of the year and expanded significantly in the second half [10][20] - By the end of 2025, the spread between six-month forfaiting and bill rates was 40 basis points, while the spread with interbank certificates of deposit was -25 basis points [10][20] Group 4: Outlook for 2026 - The domestic letter of credit issuance is expected to continue rapid growth, surpassing 6 trillion yuan in 2026, with an increase in market participants in the forfaiting sector [12][22] - Forfaiting rates are likely to follow a downward trend similar to bill rates, with a further decrease in the average rate, although the rate of decline is expected to slow [12][22] - The spread between forfaiting and bill rates is anticipated to be smaller in the first half of 2026 and expected to widen in the second half [12][22]

Group 1: Funding Situation - In December 2025, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations amounting to 37,361 billion yuan, with a buyout reverse repurchase of 16,000 billion yuan, MLF injection of 4,000 billion yuan, and issuance of treasury cash deposits of 1,500 billion yuan [1][13] - The total funds returned included 34,542 billion yuan from reverse repurchase maturity, 14,000 billion yuan from buyout reverse repurchase maturity, 3,000 billion yuan from MLF maturity, and 1,200 billion yuan from treasury cash deposits maturity, resulting in a net injection of 6,119 billion yuan [1][13] - The funding environment remained loose throughout the year, but was tight during the year-end period, with the 7-day SHIBOR rate mostly around 1.40%, surging to 1.96% at year-end [1][13] Group 2: Bill Market Conditions - In December 2025, the bill market acceptance amount was 4.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while the discount amount was 3.25 trillion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year [3][16] - The acceptance growth rate was higher than the discount growth rate, with a discount acceptance ratio of 76%, down 2 percentage points from November and lower than the 79% of the previous year, indicating an overall supply-demand imbalance in the bill market [3][16] Group 3: Bill Interest Rates - Bill interest rates showed a volatile upward trend in December 2025, with the 6-month national stock bank bill discount rate starting at around 0.75%, rising to 0.93% mid-month, then dropping to a low of 0.85%, and finally rebounding to 0.95% at the end of the month [6][19] - The month-end saw significant fluctuations in bill rates due to short-term demand shocks and limited direct bill sources [6][19] Group 4: Yield Comparisons of Related Assets - In December 2025, the yield on 6-month government bonds decreased by 10 basis points, while the yield on interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, and the yield on bill discounts increased by 22 basis points [8][21] - The bill interest rates continued to run below government bond yields, with the month-end yield spread between bills and government bonds at -38 basis points, and between bills and interbank certificates of deposit at -66 basis points [8][21] Group 5: Macroeconomic and Policy Analysis - Economic conditions improved in December 2025, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, both returning to the expansion zone [11][23] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a stable yet progressive policy approach, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors such as domestic demand and technological innovation [11][23] Group 6: Bill Market Outlook - The bill market in December 2025 saw a strong supply of primary market bills, despite rising bill interest rates, with acceptance volumes remaining high [24] - Looking ahead to January 2026, social financing and bill supply are expected to be key factors influencing future bill interest rate movements, with anticipated pressures on bill rates due to expected credit tightening [24][25]