Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs" has not achieved its intended goals, instead accelerating a profound transformation in the global economic landscape, leading to a clearer outline of a "post-American era" [1][3]. Economic Impact - The core logic behind the tariff war was to increase government revenue to alleviate fiscal deficits and to force manufacturing back to the U.S. However, while tariffs may provide short-term revenue, they ultimately suppress international trade, shrinking the tax base and weakening the fiscal foundation of the U.S. [3]. - The manufacturing repatriation goal is unrealistic due to significant cost differences in global labor, with U.S.-China manufacturing cost disparities reaching 5 to 10 times, making tariffs insufficient to offset these differences [3]. - The volatility of U.S. tariff policies has led to global economic instability, with predictions of a 0.2% decline in global trade volume by 2025 and a potential increase in the U.S. core PCE index by 0.85% to 1.2% [3]. China's Response - China has demonstrated strong strategic resolve and precise countermeasures, such as imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and restricting rare earth exports, which directly impact U.S. industries [5][8]. - Despite U.S. tariffs, bilateral trade between China and the U.S. is projected to grow over 8% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the complexity of trade relations in the era of globalization [5]. - Approximately 30% of China's exports to the U.S. consist of products manufactured by U.S. companies in China, meaning that the tariff costs are largely borne by American firms [5]. Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The tariff war has accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with countries seeking new cooperation paths, leading to a more decentralized and regionalized global supply chain [6]. - China is leveraging its robust infrastructure, efficient government services, and vast industrial support systems to maintain its irreplaceable position in the global supply chain [6]. Technological Development - China is focusing on domestic technological advancements through initiatives like the "domestic substitution list" to overcome key technology gaps, significantly increasing R&D investments in semiconductor companies [8]. - China is also deepening technological cooperation with non-U.S. countries, participating in ASEAN digital economy initiatives and collaborating with the EU on 6G development, thereby diluting the impact of U.S. sanctions [8]. Conclusion on U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. trade war reflects unilateralism and hegemonic thinking, contradicting the trends of economic globalization, and undermines the mutually beneficial nature of U.S.-China economic cooperation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for China's industrialization in the context of the "post-American era," emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to global economic shifts [2]. Group 1: Challenges in China's Industrialization - China's market development is lagging behind its industrial capacity, leading to a situation where there is significant production capability but insufficient domestic market demand, particularly in sectors like motorcycles [2][3]. - The motorcycle industry faces restrictions such as mandatory scrapping after 13 years and bans in over 100 cities, resulting in a mismatch between technological advancement and market availability [2][3]. - The automotive sector, especially in electric vehicles, is experiencing intense competition that undermines profitability, with many companies engaging in price wars and misleading marketing practices [3][4]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - Expanding domestic demand is crucial; outdated restrictions should be lifted to unlock market potential and create a unified national market [5]. - Chinese companies should pursue orderly international expansion, considering long-term partnerships and the industrial capabilities of host countries to avoid excessive competition [5][6]. - Implementing macroeconomic controls on mature industries to manage production capacity and prevent overcapacity is recommended [6]. - Emphasizing the importance of emerging technologies and industries, investment institutions should focus on promising sectors to capitalize on potential future growth [6].