今天分享的是：复旦智库：冲击与重构：复旦国际战略报告2025 报告共计：110页 《复旦国际战略报告2025》聚焦2025年全球格局的冲击与重构，指出美国特朗普政府的政策成为全球变局的核心 驱动力，其推行的单边主义、全球关税战及战略收缩，深刻冲击了国际秩序、全球经济与地区局势，推动多极化 进程加快，全球南方崛起，世界逐步迈向后美国时代。 报告指出，2025年国际政治呈现剧烈动荡与格局重构并存的特征。美国的关税政策、经济泛安全化举措扰乱了全 球贸易与产业链，多国被迫陷入双边谈判，全球经济脆弱性凸显。地缘层面，俄乌冲突陷入长期消耗，美俄主导 的停火谈判因各方诉求分歧遇阻；印太、中东、非洲等地区局部冲突频发，欧洲则面临俄乌问题、跨大西洋关系 裂痕与经济低迷三重挑战，内部分裂加剧。 大国关系迎来深度调整，美欧同盟裂痕扩大，欧洲寻求战略自主的呼声高涨；中美经激烈交锋后形成可控竞争的 平衡状态，通过高层对话建立危机管控机制；中俄保持高位战略协作，成为地区稳定的重要支撑；美俄关系虽有 松动，但信任赤字难以弥合。同时，区域大国与中等强国借机谋求外交自主，全球南方国家通过金砖、上合等机 制强化合作，在全球治理中的话语权显著提升 ...

据环球时报1月21日消息，欧洲领导人正通过群聊交换信息，以协调应对美国政府"疯狂"的外交政策。 据美国"政治新闻网"19日报道，多位不愿透露姓名的欧洲外交官私下形容美方近期的政策转向为"疯 狂"甚至"失控"，并强调，面对美国对盟友的无端挑衅，欧洲必须采取最强有力的反制措施。 报道称，越来越多的欧洲高级官员开始意识到一个严峻的现实：美国已不再是可靠的贸易伙伴，也难以 被视为值得信赖的安全盟友。在此背景下，欧洲多国正在积极探讨"后美国时代"的合作框架，一些国家 已经开始构想替代方案。 目前，来自35个国家的安全顾问通过正式会议和非正式即时通讯工具保持高频沟通，协调立场。这一机 制已从乌克兰问题扩展到更广泛的多边挑战。值得注意的是，消息人士透露，这种合作不仅限于技术官 员层面，各国领导人也亲自参与其中。 据报道，英国首相斯塔默、法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、芬兰总统斯图 布和意大利总理梅洛尼等领导人经常在同一个群聊中发消息。过去一年里，每当特朗普做出可能损害欧 洲利益的举动时，他们都会互相通气。"当事情迅速发展时，很难进行协调，而这个群聊非常有效。"一 位知情人士表示，"这充分证明了人际关系 ...

美媒分析称，即使欧美不至于彻底决裂，但关系的本质已经发生不可逆转的变化。一个不再以美国为中 心、更具多边协作特征的新西方秩序，正悄然在危机中形成。 据报道，英国首相斯塔默、法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、芬兰总统斯图 布和意大利总理梅洛尼等领导人经常在同一个群聊中发消息。过去一年里，每当特朗普做出可能损害欧 洲利益的举动时，他们都会互相通气。"当事情迅速发展时，很难进行协调，而这个群聊非常有效。"一 位知情人士表示，"这充分证明了人际关系的重要性。" 【环球时报报道 记者 周扬】欧洲领导人正通过群聊交换信息，以协调应对美国政府"疯狂"的外交政 策。据美国"政治新闻网"19日报道，多位不愿透露姓名的欧洲外交官私下形容美方近期的政策转向 为"疯狂"甚至"失控"，并强调，面对美国对盟友的无端挑衅，欧洲必须采取最强有力的反制措施。 报道称，越来越多的欧洲高级官员开始意识到一个严峻的现实：美国已不再是可靠的贸易伙伴，也难以 被视为值得信赖的安全盟友。在此背景下，欧洲多国正在积极探讨"后美国时代"的合作框架，一些国家 已经开始构想替代方案。目前，来自35个国家的安全顾问通过正式会议和非正式即时通讯工 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the deteriorating relationship between the US and Europe since Trump's return to power, with European officials feeling that a "divorce" is now inevitable due to Trump's aggressive policies, particularly regarding Greenland [1][2] - European officials are increasingly convinced that the US under Trump is no longer a reliable trade partner or security ally, prompting discussions on how to transition to a new reality without US support [1][3] - The potential consequences of this shift could lead to a complete restructuring of the Western world, affecting economic ties and security arrangements, with Europe needing to prepare for self-defense without US assistance [2][3] Group 2 - European diplomats are contemplating a future in a "post-American era," which could end 80 years of cooperation and significantly impact NATO, with some governments seeking to rebuild relations while others accept the new reality [3][5] - The "Willing Coalition," a group of European countries including non-EU members, has been operating effectively without US involvement, focusing on multilateral solutions and maintaining communication among leaders [3][5] - The crisis over Greenland has prompted European leaders to rethink their security alliances, with discussions about forming a new European security framework that does not rely on the US [6][7] Group 3 - The EU is determined to develop self-defense capabilities by 2030, with proposals for a 100,000-strong EU standing army and the establishment of a European Security Council involving multiple member states [7][8] - Upcoming EU summits aim to address the threats posed by Trump's policies, with leaders expressing a commitment to protect European unity and security in light of these challenges [8]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration under the guise of "reciprocal tariffs" has not achieved its intended goals, instead accelerating a profound transformation in the global economic landscape, leading to a clearer outline of a "post-American era" [1][3]. Economic Impact - The core logic behind the tariff war was to increase government revenue to alleviate fiscal deficits and to force manufacturing back to the U.S. However, while tariffs may provide short-term revenue, they ultimately suppress international trade, shrinking the tax base and weakening the fiscal foundation of the U.S. [3]. - The manufacturing repatriation goal is unrealistic due to significant cost differences in global labor, with U.S.-China manufacturing cost disparities reaching 5 to 10 times, making tariffs insufficient to offset these differences [3]. - The volatility of U.S. tariff policies has led to global economic instability, with predictions of a 0.2% decline in global trade volume by 2025 and a potential increase in the U.S. core PCE index by 0.85% to 1.2% [3]. China's Response - China has demonstrated strong strategic resolve and precise countermeasures, such as imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and restricting rare earth exports, which directly impact U.S. industries [5][8]. - Despite U.S. tariffs, bilateral trade between China and the U.S. is projected to grow over 8% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the complexity of trade relations in the era of globalization [5]. - Approximately 30% of China's exports to the U.S. consist of products manufactured by U.S. companies in China, meaning that the tariff costs are largely borne by American firms [5]. Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The tariff war has accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with countries seeking new cooperation paths, leading to a more decentralized and regionalized global supply chain [6]. - China is leveraging its robust infrastructure, efficient government services, and vast industrial support systems to maintain its irreplaceable position in the global supply chain [6]. Technological Development - China is focusing on domestic technological advancements through initiatives like the "domestic substitution list" to overcome key technology gaps, significantly increasing R&D investments in semiconductor companies [8]. - China is also deepening technological cooperation with non-U.S. countries, participating in ASEAN digital economy initiatives and collaborating with the EU on 6G development, thereby diluting the impact of U.S. sanctions [8]. Conclusion on U.S. Trade Policy - The U.S. trade war reflects unilateralism and hegemonic thinking, contradicting the trends of economic globalization, and undermines the mutually beneficial nature of U.S.-China economic cooperation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for China's industrialization in the context of the "post-American era," emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to global economic shifts [2]. Group 1: Challenges in China's Industrialization - China's market development is lagging behind its industrial capacity, leading to a situation where there is significant production capability but insufficient domestic market demand, particularly in sectors like motorcycles [2][3]. - The motorcycle industry faces restrictions such as mandatory scrapping after 13 years and bans in over 100 cities, resulting in a mismatch between technological advancement and market availability [2][3]. - The automotive sector, especially in electric vehicles, is experiencing intense competition that undermines profitability, with many companies engaging in price wars and misleading marketing practices [3][4]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - Expanding domestic demand is crucial; outdated restrictions should be lifted to unlock market potential and create a unified national market [5]. - Chinese companies should pursue orderly international expansion, considering long-term partnerships and the industrial capabilities of host countries to avoid excessive competition [5][6]. - Implementing macroeconomic controls on mature industries to manage production capacity and prevent overcapacity is recommended [6]. - Emphasizing the importance of emerging technologies and industries, investment institutions should focus on promising sectors to capitalize on potential future growth [6].