Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the price trends and influencing factors of various core futures varieties during the Spring Festival holiday, and suggest investors to hold no positions during the holiday due to high uncertainties and potential large price fluctuations [9][11][13] - Provide historical statistics of the price fluctuations of overseas markets during the Spring Festival in the past decade for investors' reference [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Near - Decade Spring Festival Overseas Market Price Fluctuation Statistics - The average price fluctuation range of overseas commodities during the Spring Festival holiday in history is between -3.5% and 4%. Crude oil, shipping indexes and other varieties have more obvious price fluctuations, especially in the past two years due to extreme events such as geopolitical conflicts [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Before the Spring Festival, affected by overseas news and precious metal sentiment, the price fluctuated greatly, and then stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply and demand decreased before the festival. In January, the production exceeded expectations by 1.57 tons, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [9] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association's proposal to improve the copper reserve system stimulated the market, amplifying the expectation of supply shortage. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 131.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials, but as the Spring Festival approached, downstream procurement decreased [9] - The price is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industry anti - involution, and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Before the Spring Festival, affected by non - ferrous metals and precious metals in both domestic and overseas markets, the price volatility increased. In recent days, the market began to trade on supply contraction, and the price rebounded slightly. Due to the maintenance plan of lithium salt factories, the supply in February is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the output in February will be 8.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [10] - According to Chile customs data, in January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [10] - PLS signed a two - year lithium spodumene concentrate off - take agreement with Tianyi Lithium Industry, providing a floor price for lithium prices. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen. In March, the downstream production orders are expected to increase significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate will rise. The inventory is gradually shifting downstream. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. During the off - season of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories increased significantly more than expected, but propane and refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly. The global floating crude oil storage is high, and the market is in a state of supply surplus [12] - Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's February report raised the forecast of crude oil supply surplus in 2026. The oil production in Venezuela is expected to recover in mid - 2026 [12] - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman "temporarily" ended. The US warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate greatly during the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hold no positions [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% last week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the domestic asphalt production in February 2026 will be 193.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons (6.5%) [14] - The downstream construction rates of asphalt industries decreased before the Spring Festival. The national asphalt shipment decreased by 1.33% to 21.16 tons. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, which may affect production and cost [14] - Some refineries resumed production, and the production rate increased slightly. The spot trading was light before the Spring Festival. The asphalt price will fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread [14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84%. The construction rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74%, and the orders continued to decline. On February 12, the PP enterprise construction rate remained at about 82.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased to about 28% [15][16] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. The downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [16] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 12, the plastic construction rate remained at about 92%. As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73%. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased, and the overall downstream construction rate decreased seasonally [17] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC construction rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure [19] - The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is under pressure, and the PVC construction rate is expected to change little. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [19] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak shock range, with both supply and demand decreasing. As the holiday approached, domestic mine production decreased, and the supply of Mongolian coal was restricted. The rumor of Indonesia's export suspension has high uncertainty [20] - The downstream demand is in the off - season, and steel mills and coking enterprises maintain low - level inventory and replenish inventory as needed. The coking enterprises' profit has recovered, but there is a risk of price reduction after the holiday. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an upward - trending shock. Today, it rose sharply due to market rumors, and the order collection during the holiday was completed smoothly. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 21 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month [22] - The previous high - output pressure has been mostly digested. The inventory decreased significantly last year, and it is expected to increase during the holiday. After the holiday, it will enter the agricultural demand peak season, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a tight balance. However, the price increase may be restricted by policies. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Trend**: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - **Overseas Situation**: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Trend**: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - **Inventory and Spot**: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - **Market Trend**: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - **Market Trend**: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - **Supply**: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - **Consumption**: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - **Spot Performance**: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - **Supply Factors**: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]