国金证券近日发布锂电12月洞察：12月26日，碳酸锂报价10.7万元/吨，较上月上涨16%；氢氧化锂报价 8.9万元/吨，较上月上涨11%。2025年12月以来，锂电板块表现较为活跃，多数环节跑赢沪深300和上证 50指数。关联板块中锂电电解液实现领涨，涨幅达8%，正极、锂矿，及锂电隔膜涨幅随后。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本月行业重要变化： 新能源车：11月销量延续分化，中欧高景气与美国退补冲击持续。11月中国/欧洲十国/美国新能源车销 量分别达到157/30/8万辆，同比增长19%/39%/-42%，渗透率达57%/29%/6%。中国欧洲分别累计增速 （30%/33%）持续超预期，国内高增主要系换新政策支持，欧洲则得益于政策如西班牙补贴延长、挪威 抢装及新车效应等。美国因联邦7500美元抵免政策于9月底终止，销量同比大幅下滑。 储能：11月国内储能装机强势反弹，美国或进入阶段调整。11月国内装机为11.6GWh，同/环比 +31%/213%；1～11月累计装机83.4GWh，累计同比+28%，主要系市场机制完善及成本下降等。美国11 月储能并网1.1GWh，同/环比-30%/-74%；1～11月累计装机32. ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，截至2025年12月26日，碳酸锂报价10.7万元/吨，较上月上涨 16%；氢氧化锂报价8.9万元/吨，较上月上涨11%。锂电排产上看，2026年1月，电池/正极/负极/隔膜/电 解液预排产累计同增29%-52%，其中隔膜、电解液同比超50%；各环节排产环比小幅下调，主要系受春 节假期小幅影响，但淡季不淡，产业链基本保持满负荷生产，需求端持续扩张。正值旺季，锂电材料价 格见涨，正极材料、电解液、资源品皆有所上涨，六氟磷酸锂下行，月跌幅达15%。 国金证券主要观点如下： 新能源车：11月销量延续分化，中欧高景气与美国退补冲击持续。11月中国/欧洲十国/美国新能源车销 量分别达到157/30/8万辆，同比增长19%/39%/-42%，渗透率达57%/29%/6%。中国欧洲分别累计增速 （30%/33%）持续超预期，国内高增主要系换新政策支持，欧洲则得益于政策如西班牙补贴延长、挪威 抢装及新车效应等。美国因联邦7500美元抵免政策于9月底终止，销量同比大幅下滑。 锂电排产：1月淡季不淡，环比变动-13%-2%，同比增长33%-63%。2026年1月，电池/正极/负极/隔膜/ ...

Group 1 - The supply-demand tension for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is intensifying, with nominal capacity increase of only 800,000 tons (+16%), significantly lower than the demand growth rate of over 30% annually, leading to potential shortages in Q4 [1] - The actual production of LFP in September exceeded expectations at 345,000 tons (originally forecasted at 335,000 tons), with October production expected to exceed 370,000 tons, primarily driven by expansion from Fulin Precision and OEM [1] - Prices for lithium battery materials have started to rise, with the average price of 6F increasing from 57,500 to 59,000, indicating a supply-demand imbalance for iron lithium cathodes, with some customers experiencing price hikes and a clear trend of locked volumes for 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to GF Securities, the lithium battery industry is showing signs of profit recovery in the 2025 mid-year report, with a focus on battery segments and solid-state technology development, using financial metrics to analyze industry cycle dynamics [2] - The quick ratio indicates that the battery and iron lithium segments are likely to bottom out first, with leading companies like CATL (YOY -6.67pct) and BYD (YOY -6.39pct) reducing their debt levels, while some companies like Penghui Energy (YOY +7.72pct) are increasing debt to alleviate liquidity pressure [2] Group 3 - Related products include the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830), various classes of linked funds, and the Penghua New Energy ETF [3] - Related stocks include Trina Solar (688599), JinkoSolar (688223), TianNai Technology (688116), Canadian Solar (688472), Daqo New Energy (688303), Xiamen Tungsten (688778), Aulton Technology (688567), Rongbai Technology (688005), Juhe Materials (688503), and Jiayuan Technology (688388) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The profit in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain remains highly concentrated in the battery segment, with leading companies demonstrating strong anti-cyclical capabilities despite a slight decline in their market share by Q2 2025 [1] Profitability - The return on equity (ROE) differentiation continues in Q2 2025, with a notable improvement in the copper foil segment. The proportion of companies with a year-on-year decline in ROE decreased from 70% in 2024 to 57% in 2025. The overall ROE in the lithium battery industry chain has shown recovery, with mixed performance in the battery segment and significant improvement in the copper foil segment [2] Solvency - Leading companies are reducing their debt levels while others are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure. The operating cash flow continues to flow towards battery leaders, with total cash flow for the entire industry chain reaching 287.4 billion, 42 billion, and 69.2 billion in 2024, Q1 2025, and Q2 2025 respectively. The combined cash flow for leading battery companies, CATL and BYD, accounted for 81%, 99%, and 71% of these amounts [3] Operational Efficiency - The turnover rate has improved, with inventory and accounts receivable remaining stable. In H1 2025, 64% of companies experienced a year-on-year decline in fixed asset turnover, a significant reduction from 96% in 2024, indicating improved asset utilization. The overall inventory turnover rate remained stable, with 55% of companies experiencing a decline, while accounts receivable turnover also saw a 55% decline, indicating slightly increased collection pressure [4] Financial Framework - Profitability turning points are imminent for lithium iron phosphate, batteries, anodes, and copper foil. Leading companies have seen ROE improvements over the past eight quarters, including CATL, Fulimeng Technology, and Shantai Technology, with profitability in lithium iron phosphate, anodes, and copper foil showing quarter-on-quarter improvement. Capital expenditure has remained low since peaking in Q4 2022, with a tight supply-demand balance expected in 2024 and H1 2025 [5]

Summary of Electric Vehicle and Lithium Battery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global electric vehicle (EV) market is projected to grow by 21% to 20.7 million units by 2025, with a further growth of over 16% in 2026 [1][2] - The Chinese market is expected to grow by over 25% in 2025 due to policy incentives, while the European market is forecasted to grow by 27% [1][4] - The U.S. market shows limited growth, but emerging markets are expected to grow by 35% [1][4] Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage demand is anticipated to reach 1.8 TWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and 2.1-2.2 TWh in 2026, with over 20% growth [1][3][5] - China’s energy storage installations are expected to grow by 20%-30%, with Europe and emerging markets showing the fastest growth [1][5] Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are viewed as the future direction, with sulfide solid electrolytes ready for small-scale production [1][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans for small-scale production by 2027 and large-scale production by 2030, targeting a market of around 100 GWh [1][9] Lithium Battery Sector Insights - The lithium battery sector shows steady demand and low valuations, with leading companies like CATL, BYD, and Yiwei Lithium Energy being key investment choices [1][11] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to exceed demand by 200,000 tons in 2025 and nearly 400,000 tons in 2026, leading to price stabilization [2][27] - Cobalt prices are rising due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, positively impacting companies like Huayou Cobalt [2][28] Market Performance and Trends - In the first half of 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales in China grew by 40%, with exports exceeding expectations [2][12] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles in China is around 50%, with significant growth expected in 2026 [2][14] - The European market saw a 25% increase in EV sales in the first half of 2025, with expectations of continued growth [2][15] - The U.S. market's growth is limited, with a 5% increase in EV sales in early 2025, affected by the expiration of tax credits [2][16] Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas include structural components (e.g., Keda Li), negative electrode segments (e.g., Shangtai, Putailai), and solid-state electrolyte materials [2][39] - Emerging technologies such as dry electrodes and isostatic pressing equipment are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2][38] Conclusion - The lithium battery and electric vehicle industries are poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand across various markets. Key players and emerging technologies present substantial investment opportunities, while supply chain dynamics and regulatory environments will continue to shape market conditions.