Group 1 - The supply-demand tension for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is intensifying, with nominal capacity increase of only 800,000 tons (+16%), significantly lower than the demand growth rate of over 30% annually, leading to potential shortages in Q4 [1] - The actual production of LFP in September exceeded expectations at 345,000 tons (originally forecasted at 335,000 tons), with October production expected to exceed 370,000 tons, primarily driven by expansion from Fulin Precision and OEM [1] - Prices for lithium battery materials have started to rise, with the average price of 6F increasing from 57,500 to 59,000, indicating a supply-demand imbalance for iron lithium cathodes, with some customers experiencing price hikes and a clear trend of locked volumes for 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to GF Securities, the lithium battery industry is showing signs of profit recovery in the 2025 mid-year report, with a focus on battery segments and solid-state technology development, using financial metrics to analyze industry cycle dynamics [2] - The quick ratio indicates that the battery and iron lithium segments are likely to bottom out first, with leading companies like CATL (YOY -6.67pct) and BYD (YOY -6.39pct) reducing their debt levels, while some companies like Penghui Energy (YOY +7.72pct) are increasing debt to alleviate liquidity pressure [2] Group 3 - Related products include the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830), various classes of linked funds, and the Penghua New Energy ETF [3] - Related stocks include Trina Solar (688599), JinkoSolar (688223), TianNai Technology (688116), Canadian Solar (688472), Daqo New Energy (688303), Xiamen Tungsten (688778), Aulton Technology (688567), Rongbai Technology (688005), Juhe Materials (688503), and Jiayuan Technology (688388) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The profit in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain remains highly concentrated in the battery segment, with leading companies demonstrating strong anti-cyclical capabilities despite a slight decline in their market share by Q2 2025 [1] Profitability - The return on equity (ROE) differentiation continues in Q2 2025, with a notable improvement in the copper foil segment. The proportion of companies with a year-on-year decline in ROE decreased from 70% in 2024 to 57% in 2025. The overall ROE in the lithium battery industry chain has shown recovery, with mixed performance in the battery segment and significant improvement in the copper foil segment [2] Solvency - Leading companies are reducing their debt levels while others are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure. The operating cash flow continues to flow towards battery leaders, with total cash flow for the entire industry chain reaching 287.4 billion, 42 billion, and 69.2 billion in 2024, Q1 2025, and Q2 2025 respectively. The combined cash flow for leading battery companies, CATL and BYD, accounted for 81%, 99%, and 71% of these amounts [3] Operational Efficiency - The turnover rate has improved, with inventory and accounts receivable remaining stable. In H1 2025, 64% of companies experienced a year-on-year decline in fixed asset turnover, a significant reduction from 96% in 2024, indicating improved asset utilization. The overall inventory turnover rate remained stable, with 55% of companies experiencing a decline, while accounts receivable turnover also saw a 55% decline, indicating slightly increased collection pressure [4] Financial Framework - Profitability turning points are imminent for lithium iron phosphate, batteries, anodes, and copper foil. Leading companies have seen ROE improvements over the past eight quarters, including CATL, Fulimeng Technology, and Shantai Technology, with profitability in lithium iron phosphate, anodes, and copper foil showing quarter-on-quarter improvement. Capital expenditure has remained low since peaking in Q4 2022, with a tight supply-demand balance expected in 2024 and H1 2025 [5]

电动车中期策略：稳健增长低估值，聚焦锂电龙头和固态 新技术 20250715 摘要 全球电动车市场保持增长，预计 2025 年增长 21%至 2,070 万辆， 2026 年增长 16%以上。中国市场受政策刺激，预计 2025 年增长 25% 以上；欧洲市场表现超预期，全年预计增长 27%；美国市场增长有限， 新兴市场增速较快，预计增长 35%。 全球储能需求强劲增长，预计 2025 年达到 1.8 TWh，同比增长 31%，2026 年达到 2.1-2.2 TWh，同比增长 20%以上。中国储能装 机量预计增长 20%-30%，欧洲和新兴市场增速最快，美国市场潜力巨 大但受政策影响。 固态电池被认为是未来主流方向，硫化物固态电解质已具备小规模量产 准备，多家头部企业完成 60 安时小试线测试。工信部规划 2027 年实 现小规模量产，2030 年大规模量产，市场目标达到 100GWh 左右。 锂电板块整体需求稳健，估值较低，具备全球竞争力的龙头企业是价值 选择。宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能和科达利等龙头企业以及璞泰来、 尚太科技、华友钴业等材料领域公司值得关注。 Q&A 锂电行业的中期策略核心观点是什么？ 锂 ...