天合光能（688599）、晶科能源（688223）、天奈科技（688116）、阿特斯（688472）、大全能源 （688303）、厦钨新能（688778）、孚能科技（688567）、容百科技（688005）、聚和材料 （688503）、嘉元科技（688388） 关联产品： 科创新能源ETF（588830），联接基金（A类 023075，C类 023076，I类 024157），创业板新能源ETF 鹏华（159261）,科创新能源ETF（588830） 关联个股： 消息面上，1)磷酸铁锂供需紧张加剧，行业名义产能增量仅80万吨（+16%），远低于需求增速（年增 超30%），Q4或现短缺，部分客户加工费已上涨数百元，产能被提前锁定；2)9-10月磷酸铁锂排产超预 期，9月实际产量34.5万吨（原预排33.5万吨），10月排产37万吨以上，主要增量来自富临精工扩产及代 工；3)锂电材料涨价启动，6F均价从5.75万涨至5.9万，铁锂正极供不应求，部分客户价格已上涨，26年 锁量趋势明确。 截至09月30日10:13，科创新能源ETF（588830.SH）上涨2.99%，其关联指数科创新能（000692.SH）上 涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profit in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain remains highly concentrated in the battery segment, with leading companies demonstrating strong anti-cyclical capabilities despite a slight decline in their market share by Q2 2025 [1] Profitability - The return on equity (ROE) differentiation continues in Q2 2025, with a notable improvement in the copper foil segment. The proportion of companies with a year-on-year decline in ROE decreased from 70% in 2024 to 57% in 2025. The overall ROE in the lithium battery industry chain has shown recovery, with mixed performance in the battery segment and significant improvement in the copper foil segment [2] Solvency - Leading companies are reducing their debt levels while others are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure. The operating cash flow continues to flow towards battery leaders, with total cash flow for the entire industry chain reaching 287.4 billion, 42 billion, and 69.2 billion in 2024, Q1 2025, and Q2 2025 respectively. The combined cash flow for leading battery companies, CATL and BYD, accounted for 81%, 99%, and 71% of these amounts [3] Operational Efficiency - The turnover rate has improved, with inventory and accounts receivable remaining stable. In H1 2025, 64% of companies experienced a year-on-year decline in fixed asset turnover, a significant reduction from 96% in 2024, indicating improved asset utilization. The overall inventory turnover rate remained stable, with 55% of companies experiencing a decline, while accounts receivable turnover also saw a 55% decline, indicating slightly increased collection pressure [4] Financial Framework - Profitability turning points are imminent for lithium iron phosphate, batteries, anodes, and copper foil. Leading companies have seen ROE improvements over the past eight quarters, including CATL, Fulimeng Technology, and Shantai Technology, with profitability in lithium iron phosphate, anodes, and copper foil showing quarter-on-quarter improvement. Capital expenditure has remained low since peaking in Q4 2022, with a tight supply-demand balance expected in 2024 and H1 2025 [5]

电动车中期策略：稳健增长低估值，聚焦锂电龙头和固态 新技术 20250715 摘要 全球电动车市场保持增长，预计 2025 年增长 21%至 2,070 万辆， 2026 年增长 16%以上。中国市场受政策刺激，预计 2025 年增长 25% 以上；欧洲市场表现超预期，全年预计增长 27%；美国市场增长有限， 新兴市场增速较快，预计增长 35%。 全球储能需求强劲增长，预计 2025 年达到 1.8 TWh，同比增长 31%，2026 年达到 2.1-2.2 TWh，同比增长 20%以上。中国储能装 机量预计增长 20%-30%，欧洲和新兴市场增速最快，美国市场潜力巨 大但受政策影响。 固态电池被认为是未来主流方向，硫化物固态电解质已具备小规模量产 准备，多家头部企业完成 60 安时小试线测试。工信部规划 2027 年实 现小规模量产，2030 年大规模量产，市场目标达到 100GWh 左右。 锂电板块整体需求稳健，估值较低，具备全球竞争力的龙头企业是价值 选择。宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能和科达利等龙头企业以及璞泰来、 尚太科技、华友钴业等材料领域公司值得关注。 Q&A 锂电行业的中期策略核心观点是什么？ 锂 ...