10月14日新能源车ETF（159806）下跌4.61%，主要还是受市场情绪和风格变化影响所致。 需求端：储能方面，上半年全球储能电芯出货量226GWh，同增97%，部分电芯企业一直处于满产状 态。此外，上半年国内企业储能订单取单超160GWh，同增220.28%。动力方面，上半年全球动力电池 装车量为504.4GWh，同增37.3%，国内新能源车市场正进入"金九银十"的传统销售旺季。 电池端：根据鑫椤锂电数据，10月电池及材料平均排产（预估）同环比均有提升，其中，电池为 7.1%/37.1%，正极为0.7%/21.1%，负极为5.8%/49.5%，隔膜为4.3%/31.4%，电解液为4.2%/46.3%，较高 的排产环比预示着下游需求的反弹。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期 ...

锂电材料专题汇报 20251013 摘要 锂电行业需求持续增长，动力汽车和储能领域是主要驱动力。预计今年 动力汽车销量增长 25%，储能增长 70%，总体动储需求接近 2TWh， 长期来看，2027-2030 年仍将保持 15-20%的增速。行业供需关系良 好，存在涨价趋势。 六氟磷酸锂是明年最紧张的环节，产能利用率预计提升至 90%以上，散 单价格已上涨至 7 万元以上，并有进一步上涨空间。铁锂正极环节也较 为紧张，高端产品主要由头部公司供应，涨价弹性较大。 电解液市场确定性涨价，天赐化工和多氟多等企业倾向于挺价，新增产 能有限，有利于价格上涨及企业盈利提升。六氟行业明年供需紧平衡， 头部厂商挺价意愿强烈，价格上涨超预期，将显著提升相关企业盈利能 力。 铁锂行业整体供需紧张，储能需求超预期拉动明显。高端铁锂市场供不 应求，主要由富临和裕能大规模高质量供货，预计高端铁锂价格有望上 涨，裕能挺价意愿强烈。 隔膜行业新增产能不多，头部厂商如恩捷、新源处于满产满销状态，有 较强挺价意愿，供需将从今年 66%提升至 74%。负极材料市场扩展有 序，快充需求超预期可能导致部分订单供不应求，海外基地投产生效显 著。 Q& ...

锂电产业链供需改善明显。锂电排产8-10月环比+5-10%，一线产能利用率超90%。六氟2026年长协看涨 2万元/吨，某赐液相法单吨成本较多氟多低6000-7000元。铁锂正极散单已涨500-1000元/吨，湿法隔膜 拟涨0.1元/平米。 ...

Group 1 - The supply-demand tension for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is intensifying, with nominal capacity increase of only 800,000 tons (+16%), significantly lower than the demand growth rate of over 30% annually, leading to potential shortages in Q4 [1] - The actual production of LFP in September exceeded expectations at 345,000 tons (originally forecasted at 335,000 tons), with October production expected to exceed 370,000 tons, primarily driven by expansion from Fulin Precision and OEM [1] - Prices for lithium battery materials have started to rise, with the average price of 6F increasing from 57,500 to 59,000, indicating a supply-demand imbalance for iron lithium cathodes, with some customers experiencing price hikes and a clear trend of locked volumes for 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to GF Securities, the lithium battery industry is showing signs of profit recovery in the 2025 mid-year report, with a focus on battery segments and solid-state technology development, using financial metrics to analyze industry cycle dynamics [2] - The quick ratio indicates that the battery and iron lithium segments are likely to bottom out first, with leading companies like CATL (YOY -6.67pct) and BYD (YOY -6.39pct) reducing their debt levels, while some companies like Penghui Energy (YOY +7.72pct) are increasing debt to alleviate liquidity pressure [2] Group 3 - Related products include the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830), various classes of linked funds, and the Penghua New Energy ETF [3] - Related stocks include Trina Solar (688599), JinkoSolar (688223), TianNai Technology (688116), Canadian Solar (688472), Daqo New Energy (688303), Xiamen Tungsten (688778), Aulton Technology (688567), Rongbai Technology (688005), Juhe Materials (688503), and Jiayuan Technology (688388) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the production statistics of various battery components, indicating significant growth in both lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and ternary battery production [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell production reached 113.6 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 49% [1] - Ternary cell production was recorded at 22.2 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The leading companies in the sector produced a total of 73.5 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] Group 2 - For cathodes, four companies in the ternary segment produced 26,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - Four companies in the LFP cathode segment produced 130,000 tons, maintaining a month-on-month increase of 0% and a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - Anode production from four companies reached 163,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [1] - Three companies produced 1.72 billion square meters of separators, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - Two companies produced 100,000 tons of electrolyte, with a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 46% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the production data of various battery components, indicating a positive growth trend in both lithium-ion battery cells and their components [1] - The production of ternary battery cells reached 21.9 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells was 102.9 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 56% [1] - Leading companies in the sector produced a total of 69.5 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 43% [1] Group 2 - The production of ternary cathodes from four companies reached 25,000 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 1% but a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - The production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes from four companies was 127,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 28% [1] - The production of anodes from four companies reached 152,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 44% [1] - The production of separators from three companies was 1.64 billion square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - The production of electrolytes from two companies reached 97,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 44% [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 32.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10.7%, down 1.7 percentage points [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.12 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.5% and a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, down 44.9% quarter-on-quarter and 59% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a gross margin of 11.2% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Lithium Iron Phosphate Business - Revenue from lithium iron phosphate cathodes in H1 2025 was 3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 97% year-on-year, with shipments of 105,000 tons, up 120% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2025 shipments reached 60,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97% and a year-on-year increase of 28% [1] - The company expects to achieve total shipments of 260,000 tons for the year, doubling year-on-year, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton in H1 2025 [1] Group 3: Automotive Parts and Robotics Business - The automotive parts business generated 1.8 billion yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin of 22.7%, down 2 percentage points [2] - The company anticipates automotive parts profits to be between 400 million and 500 million yuan for the full year [2] - In the robotics sector, the company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and formed a joint venture with Zhiyuan, focusing on integrated production of robotic components [2] Group 4: Tax and Cash Flow - The company faced an increase in income tax, with Q2 2025 income tax amounting to 97 million yuan, a twofold increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -60 million yuan, a decrease of 124.3% year-on-year, while Q2 operating cash flow was 90 million yuan, down 26.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Capital expenditures for H1 2025 totaled 450 million yuan, an increase of 20.8% year-on-year, with Q2 capital expenditures at 150 million yuan, down 31.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has revised down its net profit expectations for 2025-2027 to 630 million, 1.23 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60%, 94%, and 33% [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 44, 22, and 17 times for the respective years [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the positive progress in its robotics business [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Fulin Precision (300432) has a leading advantage in high-end lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) products and is making comprehensive layouts in robotic joints, with a "buy" rating assigned to the company [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, up 32.4% [2] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.7%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 3%, down 0.7 percentage points [2] - Q2 2025 revenue was 3.12 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.5% and a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, while net profit for Q2 was 50 million yuan, down 44.9% quarter-on-quarter and 59% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Product and Market Insights - Revenue from lithium iron phosphate cathodes in H1 2025 was 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with shipments reaching 105,000 tons, up 120% year-on-year [2] - The company expects to ship 260,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate for the full year, doubling year-on-year, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton in H1 [2] - The company has a production capacity of 300,000 tons, which is fully utilized, and anticipates that the proportion of fifth-generation products will increase to over 70% by 2026 [2] Group 3: Business Segments - The automotive parts business generated 1.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin of 22.7% [3] - The robotics segment is positioned to serve top-tier clients, with the company establishing joint ventures and maintaining partnerships with multiple automotive manufacturers [3] - The company’s operating cash flow was negative 60 million yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 124.3% year-on-year, while capital expenditures were 450 million yuan, up 20.8% [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 630 million, 1.23 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60%, 94%, and 33% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 44, 22, and 17 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The investment rating remains "buy" based on the positive outlook for the robotics business [4]

Group 1: AIDC and Wind Power Industry - AIDC supporting equipment benefits from increased capital expenditure by overseas cloud vendors and improved market liquidity, leading to a strong market performance [3][4] - The wind power industry has seen a significant increase in shipment volume in the first half of the year, confirming its high prosperity [3] - Wind turbine prices have stabilized and improved profitability is expected due to cost control and a higher proportion of overseas business [3] Group 2: Electric Power Equipment and Lithium Battery Sector - The electric power equipment sector is experiencing strong demand driven by overseas cloud vendors and North American market needs, with expectations for a surge in orders for high-voltage equipment [4] - The lithium battery sector is focusing on supply-demand balance and industry "de-involution," with certain segments expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Solar Energy and Energy Storage - Recent bidding results in the solar industry show component prices stabilizing above 0.7 yuan/W, indicating effective price competition regulation [5] - The energy storage sector is gaining attention for its strong performance certainty, with leading companies expected to see upward valuation potential [5] Group 4: Hydrogen Energy - The North American market is seeing a positive trend in the application of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) in data centers, with AI-related orders doubling year-on-year [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric new energy industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in production and stable profitability for leading lithium battery companies, driven by high demand and a reduction in price wars within the lithium battery segment [3][4]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly for high-margin BC components, while other materials face challenges due to price declines [4]. - Wind power installations are on the rise, with expectations for accelerated performance in the second half of the year as demand remains strong [4]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: strong performance companies, supply-side reform opportunities, and new technologies such as solid-state batteries [4]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicles - In Q2 2025, production across various lithium battery components saw year-on-year increases: ternary cathodes (+15%), iron-lithium cathodes (+53%), anodes (+23%), separators (+36%), electrolytes (+45%), and lithium batteries (+37%) [4]. - The overall profitability in the lithium battery segment is expected to stabilize and recover due to high operating rates among leading companies [4]. Photovoltaics - The PV sector experienced explosive growth in installations, with cumulative new installations exceeding 197GW from January to May 2025 [4]. - Major material companies are still facing losses, but the extent of losses has narrowed significantly in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [4]. - Aiko Solar is noted for achieving profitability in Q2 2025, marking a significant milestone in the competitive landscape [4]. Wind Power - Wind power installations reached 46.28GW from January to May 2025, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 and Q3 [4]. - The report anticipates that the main machine segment will see improved profitability as orders for wind turbines increase [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include: 1. Strong performance: CATL, Keda, Zhuhai Guanyu, Hunan YN, and Sungrow [4]. 2. Supply-side reform: Tongwei, Daqo, Aiko, and Longi Green Energy [4]. 3. New technologies: Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others [4].