回调即买点，再再 call 储能产业链 20251211 摘要 上游电芯厂最近发布了约 15%的涨价通知，主要原因是下游排产旺盛导致需求 超预期，而非单纯原材料涨价。因此，涨价并不会抑制需求。从政策角度来看， 中国市场并不存在大家担心的政策变动问题。相反，一些省份陆续出台了补偿 政策，如湖南省出台了按充电量补偿每度电 3 毛钱的调峰补偿政策。这类补偿 措施提高了储能项目的经济性，使得峰谷套利收益率达到 7%以上。此外，多 2025 年四季度六氟磷酸锂和 VC 现货价格大幅上涨，大客户反馈良好， 业绩反转明显。预计该趋势持续至 2026 年一季度，并扩展至其他中游 材料，如铁锂、隔膜、铜箔等。 未来具有良好投资前景的中游材料包括储能电芯、六氟磷酸锂、隔膜、 碳酸锂以及铁锂正极。在龙头主导格局明显的赛道上，如结构件和铝箔， 也推荐关注龙头公司。 上游电芯厂涨价主要因需求超预期，而非原材料涨价，预计不会抑制储 能需求。湖南等省份出台调峰补偿政策，提高储能项目经济性，峰谷套 利收益率达 7%以上，验证国内政策支持力度。 全球储能需求强劲，除美国外，意大利、智利、巴西等地通过招标及自 建项目推动发展，预计到 2027 ...

Core Insights - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle battery capacity and the continuous expansion of new scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The European market is anticipated to accelerate recovery in demand with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship in the industry chain is expected to improve further, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [2] Group 1: Market Trends - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is benefiting from increased electric vehicle battery capacity and the expansion of new applications, while the European market is set to recover due to the new car cycle [1] - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand anticipated to exceed expectations by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly, with leading manufacturers nearly at full production capacity, leading to price increases in energy storage cells and other components [2] - Capital expenditures in the battery sector are expected to remain high, but overall growth will align with demand, while new capacity in the materials sector is limited, potentially leading to further increases in utilization rates [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industrialization of all-solid-state sulfide batteries is entering the pilot testing phase in 2025, with semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [3] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of all-solid-state sulfide batteries are expected, with advancements in process routes and material systems [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Anticipating energy storage demand to exceed expectations, driving a reversal trend in the sector, with key recommendations in lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [4] 2. Emphasizing new technologies as high-growth investment directions, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries and their supply chains [4] 3. Looking at the recovery of charging station construction under policy support, with new scenarios potentially leading to value reassessment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the new energy sector is experiencing significant pullbacks due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule on market sentiment, alongside a rapid prior increase in prices of lithium carbonate, iron lithium cathodes, and electrolytes [1] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium carbonate market has shown emotional characteristics, with prices recently surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by a shortage in ore supply; however, the actual supply-demand tightness does not justify the current price levels, indicating an influence of market sentiment [2] - The focus in the materials sector is on the long-term contract prices between material manufacturers and leading battery manufacturers; while historically, leading battery manufacturers have delayed negotiations, this year may differ due to full order books from downstream customers, potentially limiting the duration of such delays [2] - Overall, there are no significant changes in fundamentals, with a positive outlook for energy storage demand; Q1 2026 is expected to remain strong despite being a traditionally weak season, but ongoing attention is needed on market sentiment and battery manufacturers' production plans, suggesting a continuation of a volatile market in the short term [2] - Interested investors may consider low-entry opportunities in the sector through various ETFs, including the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864), Growth Enterprise Board New Energy ETF (159387), and Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Battery Industry and Energy Storage Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is currently in a new upward cycle, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity. Energy storage is identified as the core growth driver, with an expected overall growth of 25%-30% for lithium batteries by 2026, driven by a 20% increase in power batteries and a 40%-50% increase in energy storage [1][4]. Key Insights - **Capital Expenditure and Expansion**: Leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high capital expenditures, with overall expansion projected to reach 400 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%. Material supply is expected to remain tight, leading to a sustained increase in utilization rates and an anticipated profit growth of over 30% across the industry [1][5]. - **Short-term Market Dynamics**: The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand due to preemptive purchases driven by tax incentives for new energy vehicles. This has resulted in supply constraints among leading manufacturers, with some orders being pushed to 2026. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see strong production, particularly in energy storage, while power batteries may face price transmission challenges [1][6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on materials sectors (e.g., hexafluorophosphate, VC, lithium iron phosphate), companies with strong pricing power in the battery sector, and emerging technology firms with capital expenditure opportunities [1][7]. Market Trends - **Secondary Market Growth**: The energy storage market in second- and third-tier cities is entering a positive fundamental turning point, supported by high vigilance in energy cell pricing. The trend of price reversal is expected to continue, benefiting subcomponents like fuses, relays, and integrated busbars [1][8]. - **Future of Energy Storage Batteries**: The outlook for energy storage batteries is promising, with potential price increases supported by upstream price hikes. Leading companies are projected to have valuation multiples between 20-25 times, with significant profit expectations for 2026 [1][9]. Performance of Mid-Tier Manufacturers - Mid-tier manufacturers are currently undervalued but can benefit from the spillover effects of the energy storage boom. Companies like Ruifulan are expected to see a significant turnaround in profitability, while others like Tianneng Power and Shuangdeng Co. are also positioned to benefit from volume and price increases [1][10]. Material Sector Insights - The material sector is under scrutiny for price increases and supply tightness, particularly for lithium hexafluorophosphate. Companies like Huafeng and Tianqi are highlighted for their strong positions in this area [1][11]. Equipment Sector Developments - The lithium battery equipment sector is currently in a favorable valuation range, with an expected order growth of 25%-30% in 2026. The demand for Chinese lithium battery equipment is anticipated to grow due to the global supply chain shift and increased focus on electric vehicles by European and American automakers [1][12][13]. Recommendations for Specific Companies - **Haimuxing**: Holds over 50% market share within the CATL ecosystem, with significant order growth expected in 2026 [1][17]. - **Lianying Laser**: A key player in welding equipment for CATL, with substantial order potential due to increased capital expenditure [1][17]. - **Xian Dao Intelligent**: Expected to secure significant incremental orders, benefiting from its strong position as a supplier to CATL [1][17]. Conclusion - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are poised for significant growth, driven by robust demand and capital expenditures. Companies within these sectors, particularly those focusing on innovative technologies and materials, are expected to see substantial valuation increases and market performance in the coming years [1][19].

Group 1: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle starting in 2025, driven by improvements in supply-demand structure and price stabilization within the industry chain [6][7] - Key drivers include changes in demand structure, diversification of application scenarios, and the release of a new vehicle cycle overseas [6] - The introduction of high-voltage fast-charging and extended-range models is expected to increase the battery capacity per vehicle, expanding applications beyond passenger cars to include heavy trucks, engineering machinery, and electric ships [6][7] Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow significantly due to declining prices of lithium batteries, inverters, and photovoltaic components, making "photovoltaic + energy storage" economically viable in many countries [4][10] - The global energy storage market is projected to maintain an upward trend, with expected annual shipments surpassing 600 GWh and growth rates exceeding 20% by 2026 [10] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to reach an economic turning point following policy reforms, while emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are becoming new growth areas [10][11] Group 3: Industrial Automation - The industrial automation sector is experiencing stable growth, with structural opportunities arising from the recovery of the new energy sector since 2025 [14][15] - The demand for high-performance power supply for AI data centers is driving growth in AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) and robotics [15] - Companies are extending their existing technology into robotics, with a focus on humanoid robots and advanced motor technologies such as axial flux motors [15][16] Group 4: Power Equipment - The investment climate for domestic power grids is expected to remain positive, with a projected CAGR of around 7% for grid investment from 2026 to 2027 [17][19] - The focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and flexible direct current transmission is expected to drive significant investment in the power grid [17] - The export potential for power equipment remains strong, with a 23% year-on-year increase in exports from January to August 2025, driven by global demand for renewable energy and grid modernization [19]

Group 1 - The supply-demand dynamics in the lithium battery materials sector have significantly improved, with strong price increase expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate cathodes [1] - By Q4 2025, the supply-demand situation for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to tighten, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 90% in 2026, leading to full production and sales for the top five companies and an increase in spot prices to 100,000 yuan/ton [1] - Leading companies in lithium iron phosphate cathodes are beginning to negotiate prices, with some customers accepting price increases of 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The membrane and anode prices also have room for adjustment, with a 10% price increase for small customers already implemented for anodes [1] - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on listed companies in clean energy, energy conservation, and new energy vehicles [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall development level and technological progress trends in the new energy industry by selecting companies with high growth potential and innovation capabilities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the lithium battery sector is experiencing strong demand and production growth, with expectations for significant increases in both battery and material segments in 2026, surpassing market expectations [1][2] - Battery production is benefiting from energy storage demand, with a 10% month-on-month increase in production in September and a further 10% increase in October, leading to an annual demand growth forecast of 40% [1] - Major battery manufacturers are expected to see a shipment volume increase of over 25% in 2026, significantly better than the previous forecast of 15-20% [1] Group 2 - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow by 40% to 770 GWh in 2026, driven by independent storage explosions in China and project rushes in the US [2] - European and emerging markets are expected to maintain high growth rates, with energy storage battery demand reaching 550 GWh in 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall lithium battery demand for 2025 has been revised to a 40% growth forecast, with a 25%+ growth expected in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Material leaders are operating at full capacity, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to price increases, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [3] - The price of hexafluorophosphate has already increased significantly, with spot prices rising to 100,000 yuan per ton, exceeding expectations [3] - Price adjustments are anticipated for other materials, including separators and anode materials, with some price increases already implemented for smaller clients [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials supply and demand landscape is experiencing strong seasonal demand, with production and sales showing significant growth, exceeding previous expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Demand - Current battery manufacturers are benefiting from dynamic storage demand, leading to a production increase of 10% month-on-month in September and another 10% in October, resulting in a year-on-year increase of over 35% [1][2]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow by 40% for the year, with leading battery manufacturers forecasting a shipment increase of over 25% in 2026, significantly better than the previous expectation of 15-20% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends - European power and global energy storage demand are exceeding expectations, with independent storage expected to maintain a growth rate of 30-40% following the cancellation of mandatory storage in China [2]. - The U.S. is anticipated to see a 40% growth due to pre-OBBB project installations, while Europe and emerging markets are expected to experience 1-2 times growth, leading to a total energy storage battery demand of 550 GWh for the year, a 70% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 3: Material Prices and Supply - The leading materials are at full production capacity, with a tight balance in supply for mainstream segments, indicating an impending price turning point [3]. - The price of hexafluorophosphate (6F) is expected to rise significantly, with current prices adjusted to 100,000 yuan per ton, and the average price for the year projected to reach around 80,000 yuan [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The strong performance in lithium battery production and sales in 2026 is expected to exceed market expectations, with continued profitability for leading battery companies [4]. - Material prices are anticipated to increase, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and iron-lithium, indicating significant profit elasticity for leading material companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is leading the market, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) rising over 4%, driven by strong performance in the energy storage business and supportive policies [1]. Performance Summary - Sunshine Power achieved revenue of 22.869 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.83% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.147 billion yuan, up 57.04% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter. The company's energy storage system revenue was approximately 11 billion yuan, indicating strong performance and an upward revision of global energy storage installation expectations for the coming years [2]. Growth Summary - The easing of US-China relations and Nvidia's announcement of high demand in 2026 are expected to boost energy storage growth. The increase in electricity consumption in North American data centers highlights the need for energy storage solutions to manage load fluctuations, further opening growth opportunities in the sector [3]. Price Summary - The price of electrolyte reached 98,000 yuan per ton on October 27, up 39,000 yuan from 59,000 yuan on September 28, indicating a tight supply and potential for further price increases. The price of lithium iron phosphate cathodes also rose from 34,900 yuan per ton on September 28 to 36,100 yuan per ton on October 27, supported by demand and cost factors [4]. Policy Summary - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new energy sources, including wind, solar, and nuclear, and promotes new energy storage to achieve carbon peak goals. Local policies, such as those from the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, aim for a cumulative energy storage installation of 15 GW by 2030 and support for independent storage systems. The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a surge in domestic energy storage demand due to the implementation of various provincial policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by improved Q3 performance of leading companies and supportive policy guidance, leading to a notable increase in the performance of the ChiNext new energy ETF [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The leading new energy company reported Q3 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.65% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.147 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 57.04% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.1% [1] - The revenue from the company's energy storage systems was approximately 11 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in this segment [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a continuous increase in the proportion of new energy supply and emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development of clean energy [1] - On October 21, the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on measures to promote high-quality development of new energy storage, with a target of 15 GW of cumulative installed capacity by 2030 [1] - The measures include key support for independent energy storage and encouragement for integrated source-grid-load-storage systems for high energy-consuming industries [1] Group 3: Price Trends - The price of electrolyte has risen significantly, reaching 98,000 yuan per ton as of October 27, up from 59,000 yuan per ton on September 28, indicating a price increase of 39,000 yuan [2] - The price of lithium iron phosphate cathodes has also increased from 34,900 yuan per ton on September 28 to 36,100 yuan per ton on October 27 [2] - The supply remains tight, and further price increases are expected due to strong demand and cost support [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities projects a 30-40% growth in large-scale energy storage demand in China over the next two years, driven by the gradual introduction of compensation electricity prices [2] - The demand for large-scale storage is expected to surge in emerging markets such as Europe and the Middle East, with a projected CAGR of 30-50% for global energy storage installations from 2025 to 2028 [2] - The recovery of shipments in Europe and the explosive demand for commercial storage are also contributing to a positive outlook for the energy storage market [2]