专题：美联储再降息25个基点 三人投下反对票 美联储连续第三个次会议如预期降息25个基点，此次的决定同样遭到了立场相对的决策者反对而且异议 者的数量增加到了三人。值得关注的是，考虑利率调整的"幅度和时机"这一自7月后就暌违的措辞回到 了声明中。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在记者会上强调政策没有预设路径、需根据数据逐次会议敲定。 关键看点 此为议息会议连续第四次出现分歧，形成了9比3的表决结果 三名决策者投下反对票，是2019年以来首次 意味着四次会上异议累计达到8次，相当于此前47次会议的总和 斯蒂芬·米兰出任理事以来连续第三次反对决定，继续主张降息50个基点 声明重提"对联邦基金利率的目标区间进行额外调整的幅度和时机" 美联储宣布开始购买国库券来维持准备金水平 "点阵图"凸显了决策层的分歧，预估中值显示2026年和2027年各降息一次 数据高度分散：7位决策者希望2026年全年维持利率不变，8人则支持至少降息两次 鲍威尔记者会讲话重点 劳动力市场逐步降温提供了今日降息的依据 FOMC一致认为通胀过高、劳动力市场走弱 现在有分歧是意料中事 理事及联储行长有着各种不同的观点 近期就业下行风险似已上升 近几个月风险平衡发生 ...

美联储再度出手，降息25个基点。 北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从3.75%—4.00%下调至3.50%—3.75%，符合市场预期。同时，美联储宣布，将 在本月开始扩大资产负债表，购买400亿美元的短期国债。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后召开的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径；国债购买规模或将在未来数月维持高位。另外， 最新公布的"点阵图"显示，美联储官员的中值预期为2026年再降息25个基点，2027年再降25个基点，与9月时的预测一致。 受鲍威尔"鸽派"发言刺激，美股三大指数集体拉升，涨幅扩大，道指刷新日高，截至发稿，道指大涨1.23%，标普500指数涨0.81%，纳指涨0.5%。 美联储宣布：降息 北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间，符合市场预期。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年 内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点，今年累计降息75个基点。 值得一提的是，本次降息决策并未得到全体联邦市场公开委员会（FOMC）投票委员支持。决议声明显示，有3 ...

官宣降息。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，从当前的3.75%—4%区间降至3.5%—3.75%区间。这是美联储连续第3次宣布降息，累计降息幅 度75个基点。 此前，由于联邦政府"停摆"，多个官方经济数据暂停发布，导致美联储缺少足够的信息对当前经济状况进行判断。但有数据显示，当前就业市场出现降温 迹象。美国劳工部12月9日发布的10月职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告显示，10月就业职位空缺数量为767万个，略高于去年同期的761.5万个和今年9月的 765.8万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为514.9万个，低于今年9月的536.7万个和去年同期10月的535万个。当月，辞职数量为294.1万个，环比和同比均明显减 少。与此相对，10月雇主主动裁员和解职的数量为185.4万个，环比和同比均增长，达到2023年1月以来最高水平。 通胀方面，美联储偏好指标，个人消费支出(PCE)9月份同比上涨2.8%，略低于华尔街预测，但仍远高于美联储2%的目标。 值得关注的是，美联储货币政策委员会成员在投票中再次出现了巨大分歧。其中，支持本次货币政策行动的有主席杰罗姆.H.鲍威尔、副主席约翰.C.威廉 姆斯、迈克尔 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美联储降息25个基点，符合预期，决议声明称：未来30天将购买400亿美元国债。 ...

Core Insights - BNP Paribas anticipates that the Federal Reserve will become the primary buyer of short-term U.S. Treasury securities by 2026-2027 [1] Group 1 - The expectation is based on the current economic trends and monetary policy adjustments [1] - This shift in buying behavior could significantly impact the Treasury market dynamics [1] - The analysis suggests a strategic move by the Federal Reserve to manage liquidity and interest rates effectively [1]

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is increasing its bond purchasing operations, indicating a shift in monetary policy to support the economy [1] Group 1: Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan will purchase 325 billion yen of 1-3 year Japanese government bonds, up from a previous scale of 275 billion yen [1] - The Bank of Japan will also purchase 325 billion yen of 3-5 year Japanese government bonds, previously set at 275 billion yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan plans to purchase government bonds at the same pace in June as it did in May [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's bond purchasing strategy indicates a continuation of its monetary easing policy [1]