Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that new home sales in China have weakened, with a total sales area of 516 million square meters from January to July, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.0%. The sales value reached 4.96 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year. The decline in sales has narrowed compared to the same period last year, suggesting the real estate market is stabilizing [5][6] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 535.8 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with expectations for policy support to accelerate land acquisition [5] - The report highlights that the average transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 123.11 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.4% [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home sales and inventory: The cumulative new home sales area in 30 major cities was 5622.43 million square meters, down 4.4% year-on-year. The average transaction area for new homes in the last four weeks was 140.23 million square meters, down 14.5% year-on-year [6][14] - Second-hand home transactions: The cumulative area of second-hand home transactions in 20 cities was 7180.37 million square meters, up 15.7% year-on-year. The average transaction area in the last four weeks was 196.72 million square meters, down 0.1% year-on-year [19][21] - Land market transactions: In the last week, 69 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 17 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 7627.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 10.72% [29][32] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 3.94% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.37%. The real estate index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.56 percentage points [33][35] - Key A-share real estate stocks with significant gains included Wantong Development (+39.45%) and Quzhou Development (+33.01%) [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot prices are weak, with prices falling across regions. In the medium term, factors such as the June real - estate debt repayment peak and Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing will suppress the market. The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. Bulls focus on policy support, low spot prices, long - term factory losses, and peak - season expectations. Bears believe the real - estate market won't improve substantially, and inventory pressure is high [6][7]. -纯碱: The short - term outlook is weak. The glass market's pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. High production and inventory are the core issues, and there is no long - term shortage expectation. Potential supporting factors like low light - heavy soda ash price difference, good exports, and high inventory concentration need the improvement of the glass market to take effect [8][9]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [12]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [13]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day [15]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [16]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day [18]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 155,000 tons/day [19][20]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions are slightly down but stable compared to last week. Some manufacturers' prices have dropped by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions are: 1120 - 1180 yuan/ton in Shahe, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei, and 1220 - 1360 yuan/ton in East China [26][30]. - Futures prices have rebounded, the basis is weak, and the calendar spread is stable. The calendar spread's rebound space is limited due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [32][35]. - Profits vary by fuel: - 108 yuan/ton for petroleum coke, - 195 - 83 yuan/ton for natural gas and coal [36][40]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream开工 - Due to the rainy season, market transactions are weak, and inventory has slightly increased in most regions. Regional price differences have shrunk as prices in East China have declined [43][49]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly down, shipments are average, and inventory is increasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have decreased by 4.08% and 2.47% respectively [56][58]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 99,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 29.87 days, a 0.50% increase [59][64]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash maintenance has reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 86.5%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is 415,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.7267 million tons, with 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,000 tons of heavy soda ash [69][72][73]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - This week's prices have changed little, with some northwest manufacturers reducing prices. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. High production and inventory put pressure on near - month contracts. The basis is slightly strong, and the calendar spread is under pressure. The profit in East China (excluding Shandong) for the joint - alkali method is 99.5 yuan/ton, and in North China for the ammonia - alkali method is 25 yuan/ton [84][86][91].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - Gold closed at 780.10 with a 3.76% weekly increase [2]. - Silver closed at 8263.00 with a 2.00% weekly increase [2]. - Other commodities like corn, copper, and glass had varying degrees of price changes, with some increasing and others decreasing [2]. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index and other indexes also had corresponding price changes, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% - 1.10% [2]. Bond and Exchange Rates - Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.61%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 1.79% [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: RMB appreciation, capital inflow, net financing purchase, potential monetary policies, and policy support for the stock market [4]. - Bearish logics: Global debt issues, ineffective industrial policies, slow economic improvement, and low market trading volume [4]. Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, all 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: Low possibility of tightened liquidity, declining interest rates, policy constraints on market rates, and weak real - economy financing demand [4]. - Bearish logics: Unlikely further interest - rate cuts, upcoming special treasury bond supply, rising risk appetite, and expected policy - driven inflation and growth [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Rebound in transportation data, decline in US active oil rigs, high gold - oil ratio, and lack of clear OPEC production increase data [5]. - Bearish logics: Approaching US debt crisis, rumored OPEC+ production increase, inventory accumulation, easing US - Iran relations, poor US debt auction, and tariff threats [5]. Agricultural Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, limited production increase in May, high Indian imports, and decreasing domestic inventory [5]. - Bearish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil production, excessive domestic purchases, higher - than - expected production data, seasonal production increase, and potential reduction in biodiesel demand [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Tariff - buffer - driven exports, improvement in US manufacturing PMI, inventory reduction, and continuous decline in social inventory [6]. - Bearish logics: Low downstream processing profits, post - tariff - window demand pressure, potential decline in photovoltaic demand, and high valuation [6]. Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Improved regional sales, reduced inventory, potential policy support, and technical support at the current price [6]. - Bearish logics: Price cuts for inventory reduction, high daily melting volume, approaching traditional off - season, and weak real - estate demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Global bond market volatility, Chinese reduction of US debt, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Bearish logics: Market pricing of US fiscal bill impact, potential limited impact of tariff threats, possible decline in gold's relative attractiveness, and overbought technical signals [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Coal mine maintenance, high steel - mill profits, strong basis after price decline, and weak coking - enterprise production - cut incentives [7]. - Bearish logics: High mine inventory, declining iron - water production, high auction failure rate, shrinking coking profits, and high port clearance volume [7].