2025 年 07 月 13 日 房地产 静待政策宽松 周观点：7 月销售转冷，静待政策宽松 Wind 统计，核心城市房管局成交数据中，新房成交数据全面走弱。重 点监测 32 城，周度成交合计 1.2 万套，环比上周大幅下降 50.5%， 周度成交规模跌至今年春节后周成交新低。一线城市二手房成交持续 回落，上周周度成交合计 0.8 万套，环比转弱明显。 我们认为，新房市场推盘放缓，叠加高温天气下，看房需求走弱下， 成交数据持续走弱，销售持续转冷下，建议持续关注月底政治局会议 对新一轮地产政策的方向定调。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（7.5-7.11） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.2 万套，环比上周下降 50.5%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 44.1 万套，累计同比下降 5.4%。其中，一 线城市成交 3022 套，环比上周下降 54.7%，2025 年累计成交 12.6 万 套，累计同比增长 6.2%；二线城市成交 7192 套，环比上周下降 52.5%， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, particularly highlighting the potential for policy-driven recovery in major cities [6][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, with A-share real estate down by 1.8% and Hong Kong real estate up by 2.6% during the week of June 7-13 [2][17]. - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes, including the removal of purchase restrictions, are expected to stimulate market activity and may lead to similar actions in other first-tier cities [4][6]. - New home sales have shown a week-on-week increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 15% across 47 cities, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment [3][32]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a significant increase, with a 30% week-on-week rise in transaction volume across 22 cities [40][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 26th among all sectors with a decline of 1.8%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 6th with an increase of 2.6% [2][17]. - The property service index in Hong Kong rose by 3.1%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively [23][2]. Land Market - The average land premium rate remains low at 3%, with a total of 626,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities during the week, marking a 101% increase week-on-week but a 21% decrease year-on-year [26][30]. - Year-to-date, the total residential land area sold is 15,209,000 square meters, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year decline [26][30]. Policy Developments - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes aim to eliminate purchase, sale, and price restrictions, which could lead to a broader easing of real estate policies in other major cities [4][6]. - The central government has indicated a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting further policy support may be forthcoming [4][6]. Financing Trends - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with new long-term loans for residents rebounding to 746 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing conditions [5][18]. - The year-to-date decline in new long-term loans has narrowed to 2.9%, suggesting improved market resilience [5][18]. Sales Data - New home sales in 47 cities totaled 3.31 million square meters, with significant increases in first-tier cities [32][3]. - Second-hand home sales reached 2.51 million square meters, with notable growth in transaction volumes across all city tiers [40][3].