【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：情绪回落 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 【行情分析】 焦煤高开低走，日内下跌。美国总统特朗普当地时间周二宣布，白宫将为 穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供海军护航和政治风险保险，而伊朗称完全控制霍 尔木兹海峡。基本面来看，国内矿山逐渐复工状态，本期大幅提升开工负荷达 20%，假期后随着矿山的复产，焦煤矿山库存增加 6.04 万吨，独立焦企及钢厂 春节后连续两周库存去化，冬储补库支撑结束，节后钢厂小幅复苏，铁水产量 增加 2.79 万吨，两会期间钢厂减排或对短期开工有干扰，临近国内重大会议， 市场对政策有观望和预期，上海等多地陆续出台刺激房地产新政策，终端市场 表现仍需关注。下游钢厂复工复产回升较为缓慢，焦炭有 1-2 轮的提降预期。 今日伊朗地缘局势冲突对于煤炭的影响兑现完成后，盘面下跌，预计逐渐回归 供需宽松的基本面，宏观情绪若无反复，预计承压为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1040 元/吨，较上个交易日+27 元/吨，介 休现货价报 1270 元/吨，较上个交易日持平。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1097 元/吨，山西介休基差 173 元/吨， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices influenced by comments from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, highlighting the volatility in the market and the impact of geopolitical factors on precious metals [1][4][6]. Price Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop and recovery within a short time frame, with a peak around $4620 before falling to a low of $4537, ultimately closing at $4596 [4][6]. - Silver mirrored gold's movements, dropping from above $91 to below $87 before stabilizing [4][6]. Market Trends - The largest gold ETF saw a substantial increase in holdings, adding over 20 tons this week, indicating strong buying interest in gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by Governor Bowman, suggests a readiness to lower rates again, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices [6]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with key resistance at $4620-25 and support at $4570-80. A breakout above resistance could lead to new highs [7][9]. - For silver, the critical support level is identified at $86-87, with potential upward movement if this level holds [9][11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a mixed strategy for investors, recommending a combination of long-term holdings and short-term trading to maximize profits while managing costs [12].

Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached new historical highs, with the Nasdaq index rising by 0.94% and the S&P 500 by 0.47% [2] - The US technology sector saw significant gains, with the Tech Giants Index increasing by 1.53%, and Google’s market capitalization surpassing $3 trillion for the first time [9][11] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.87%, with notable individual stock performances including Zhengye Technology up over 14% and Pony.ai up over 10% [4][5] Commodities - Precious metals, particularly gold, reached new historical highs, with spot gold prices hitting $3685.524 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching $3724.9 per ounce [12] - Oil prices continued to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 0.94% and 0.72% respectively [13][15] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 0.97%, with ASML rising over 6% and Intel, KLA Corporation, and ARM all gaining over 2% [3]