美以对伊朗军事行动，关注逆向布局时机 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导读： 航空：春运节后票价上行继续良好，Q1 盈利可期。继续看好超级周期，建议把握逆 向布局时机。油运：26Q1 油轮盈利确定大增，关注军事行动后续灰色市场变化。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《春节假期出行旺盛，航空票价升幅扩大》 2026.02.24 运输《原油运价维持高位，集运运价继续回落》 2026.02.15 运输《中蒙物流：量稳价升，修复持续》 2026.02.14 运输《节前将现客流高峰，票价趋势有望向好》 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a strong demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with an upward trend in ticket prices expected to continue. The report suggests a long-term investment strategy based on a "super cycle" logic [3][4]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, with expectations for tanker profits to increase significantly year-on-year in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super bull market" [3][4]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by a reduction in competitive pressure and a gradual increase in price levels [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, 2026, with a year-on-year increase in passenger flow of 2% as of February 6, 2026. Air travel saw a 6% increase, while rail travel decreased by 1% [4][10]. - The report highlights that the aviation market's load factor and ticket prices are both showing positive year-on-year growth. The limited increase in train and bus services is expected to benefit airline revenue management [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability during the Spring Festival season, with Q1 2026 expected to show industry-wide profitability due to favorable ticket price trends and a decrease in oil prices [4]. Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical tensions have kept shipping rates elevated, with tanker utilization rates remaining high since August 2025 due to increased oil production and stricter sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) on the Middle East to China route has maintained above $120,000 per day [20]. - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping sector is not merely a short-term play on geopolitical events but has a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global oil production increases and the aging of tanker fleets [4]. Express Delivery - The report indicates that the express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year growth in parcel volume of 13.6% for 2025, although December's growth slowed to 2% due to high operational costs and a warm winter [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in industry pricing, with December's average revenue per parcel decreasing by only 2% year-on-year, suggesting a potential easing of competitive pressures [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading express companies that are optimizing their business structures and building differentiated competitive advantages, such as SF Express and ZTO Express [4].

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector is experiencing a significant price increase, with major companies like Micron Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk, and Seagate showing notable stock gains. The price surge is expected to continue into 2026, driven by rising demand in AI and server capacity [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The storage market is entering a "super bull market" phase, surpassing historical highs seen in 2018 [1] - Price increases are spreading from storage chips to foundry and packaging testing segments, as well as passive components [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - Storage prices are projected to rise by 40%-50% in Q4 2025, followed by another 40%-50% increase in Q1 2026, and an additional approximate 20% rise in Q2 2026 [1] Group 3: Supplier Dynamics - Supplier bargaining power has reached historical highs due to the surge in demand, particularly from AI and server markets [1]

Core Insights - The price of storage chips, including memory and flash, has surged dramatically since the second half of 2025, with prices doubling or more, driven primarily by the explosive demand for AI computing power [1] - The price increase of memory modules has outpaced that of gold, with reports indicating that DDR5 memory prices have risen over 300% and DDR4 prices have increased by more than 150% since September 2025 [1] - AI servers require 8-10 times more memory than standard servers, leading to AI servers consuming 53% of the global monthly memory production capacity, which has significantly impacted the allocation of consumer-grade memory production [1] - Major cloud service providers are placing substantial purchase orders, indicating a shift in the storage market towards a "super bull market," surpassing historical peaks seen in 2018 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices influenced by comments from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, highlighting the volatility in the market and the impact of geopolitical factors on precious metals [1][4][6]. Price Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop and recovery within a short time frame, with a peak around $4620 before falling to a low of $4537, ultimately closing at $4596 [4][6]. - Silver mirrored gold's movements, dropping from above $91 to below $87 before stabilizing [4][6]. Market Trends - The largest gold ETF saw a substantial increase in holdings, adding over 20 tons this week, indicating strong buying interest in gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by Governor Bowman, suggests a readiness to lower rates again, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices [6]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with key resistance at $4620-25 and support at $4570-80. A breakout above resistance could lead to new highs [7][9]. - For silver, the critical support level is identified at $86-87, with potential upward movement if this level holds [9][11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a mixed strategy for investors, recommending a combination of long-term holdings and short-term trading to maximize profits while managing costs [12].

Core Insights - The storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing historical highs from 2018, driven by surging demand for AI and server capacity [1] - Storage prices are expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a 40%-50% increase by Q4 2025 and another 40%-50% increase in Q1 2026, followed by an approximate 20% rise in Q2 2026 [1] Price Trends - The price of 64GB RDIMM storage has surged from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations to reach $700 by March 2026 [2] - A price increase to $1,000 within this year is plausible, which would be nearly double the 2018 peak price of $1.00/Gb [2] Cost Structure Changes - The ongoing rise in storage prices is fundamentally altering the Bill of Materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers [3] - In the iPhone 17 Pro Max, storage now accounts for over 10% of the BoM, up from approximately 8% in the iPhone 12 Pro Max [3] - For flagship models with 16GB-24GB LPDDR5X memory and 512GB-1TB UFS 4.0 storage, storage costs may exceed 20% of the BoM [3] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting production capacity towards high-margin server DDR5 storage, leading to a rapid contraction in supply of older technologies like LPDDR4 and eMMC [3] Supply Outlook - DRAM production is projected to increase by 24% year-on-year in 2026, but despite rising capital expenditures, it will take time to meet demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing historical highs from 2018, driven by the increasing demand for AI and server capacity. Supplier bargaining power has reached an all-time high, with storage prices expected to rise significantly in the coming years [4]. Price Trends - The price of 64GB RDIMM storage has surged from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations to further increase to $700 by March 2026. A price point of $1,000 (approximately $1.95/Gb) within this year is plausible, nearly double the 2018 peak of $1.00/Gb [5]. Cost Structure Changes - The ongoing rise in storage prices is fundamentally altering the Bill of Materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers. Although capital expenditures are increasing, the supply-demand gap remains, with DRAM production expected to grow by 24% year-on-year in 2026 [6]. Smartphone Impact - By 2025, storage will account for over 10% of the BoM in the iPhone 17 Pro Max, up from about 8% in the iPhone 12 Pro Max in 2020. For flagship models with 16GB–24GB LPDDR5X memory and 512GB–1TB UFS 4.0 storage, the storage cost may exceed 20% of the BoM due to current price increases. The supply of older technologies like LPDDR4 and eMMC is rapidly shrinking as leading manufacturers shift production to more profitable server DDR5 storage [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - **News**: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - **News**: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - **News**: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - **News**: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - **News**: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].

Core Insights - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing the historical highs of 2018 [1] - The surge in demand driven by AI and server capacity has led to suppliers achieving the highest bargaining power in history [1] - Memory prices are expected to rise significantly, with a forecasted increase of 40%-50% in Q4 2025, followed by another 40%-50% increase in Q1 2026, and an additional approximate 20% rise in Q2 2026 [1] Price Trends - The price of 64GB RDIMM memory has increased dramatically from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations to reach $700 by March 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The memory market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing the historical highs of 2018, driven by surging demand from AI and server capacity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Supplier bargaining power has reached an all-time high due to increased demand [1] - Memory prices are expected to rise significantly, with a forecasted increase of 40%-50% in Q4 2025 and another 40%-50% in Q1 2026, followed by an approximate 20% increase in Q2 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of 64GB RDIMM memory has surged from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, with expectations to further climb to $700 by March 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Samsung Electronics anticipates that the shortage of memory chips will drive up prices across the entire electronics industry, including its own consumer products [1]