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国投期货能源日报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the symbol implies a neutral state [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bearish trend with a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, indicating a bearish view with a relatively clear downward trend and the market is being affected [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC09 contract declined by 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, pressuring the oil market in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week [2] - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The overnight international oil price fell, with the SC09 contract down 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, increasing the supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week. Also, attention should be paid to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited, especially the low - sulfur fuel oil with a decline of less than 1%. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4]
6.16纯碱日评:供需宽松 纯碱延续弱势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 02:28
| 規格 | 市场 | 6月13日 | 6月16日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1290-1380 | 1290-1380 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1240-1520 | 1240-1490 | 0/-30 | | | 华中市场 | 1200-1340 | 1200-1340 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1020-1160 | -1020-1160 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1250-1360 | 1250-1360 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1490-1540 | 1420-1540 | -70/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1350-1440 | 1350-1440 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1300-1440 | 1300-1440 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1320-1420 | 1320-1420 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1290-1370 | 1280-1360 | -10/-10 | | | 西北市场 | 1000- ...
日度策略参考-20250609
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].
木浆成本下行,供需宽松,双胶纸价格承压
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:22
木浆成本下行,供需宽松,双胶纸价格承压 银河化工 研究员:朱四祥 期货从业证号:F03127108 投资咨询证号:Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格:70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨,环比降幅3.0%。② 供应端分化:部分纸机转产情况存在,且停产企业暂未恢 复正常生产,新增装置生产暂未放量。需求端疲弱:出版招标订单释放有限,零星低价压制市场预期③成本:针叶浆期货盘面止跌企稳, 但周均价环比仍下跌;阔叶浆价格持续承压下探,贸易商报价混乱。 【逻辑】 双胶纸:供应:行业盈利水平仍较低,工厂转产情况存在,市场供应趋稳。需求:秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢,社会面订单仍显不振,整 体终端消费跟进不及预期,下游印厂开工水平不高,用户原纸库存消耗缓慢,无明显大量囤库意愿。成本:国内港口库存仍处于高位,叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕,市场对供应过剩担忧加剧,木浆价格整体趋弱。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周偏弱调整。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 第一部分 综合分 ...