证 券 研 究 报 告 海尔生物（688139）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 新产业收入占比提升，海外业务动能持续 目标价：44 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 17.61 亿元（-1.17%），归母净利润 1.98 亿元（-35.83%），扣非净利润 1.73 亿元（-37.20%）。25Q3，营业收入 5.66 亿元（+1.24%），归母净利润 0.56 亿元（-25.60%），扣非净利润 0.50 亿元（- 22.47%）。 评论： | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,284 | 2,319 | 2,558 | 2,850 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.1% | 1.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 367 | 259 | 294 | 334 | | 同比增速(%) | -9.7% | -29.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.15 | 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a rebound in revenue and profit margins in the third quarter of 2025, despite facing a challenging global and industry environment [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, the company's operating revenue increased by 1.24% year-on-year and 11.68% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 70%, while the non-recurring net profit experienced a three-digit percentage increase [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.117 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 10.48% [3]. Market Segments - In the domestic market, the company maintained steady growth in its ultra-low temperature, low-temperature, incubator, safety cabinet, and centrifuge product lines, with third-quarter revenue remaining stable compared to the same period last year [3]. - The overseas market saw a revenue increase of 20.18% year-on-year, totaling 634 million yuan, driven by the expansion of localized operations in 18 countries, including France [3]. New Industries - New industries accounted for approximately 48% of total revenue, with significant growth in smart medication and blood technology sectors, achieving double-digit growth in the first three quarters [4]. - The laboratory solutions segment also showed resilience, achieving single-digit growth despite a weak industry backdrop [4]. Profitability - The company's gross profit margin in the third quarter was 46.99%, an increase of 3.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin rose by 3.43 percentage points [4]. - The company anticipates a revenue turning point by 2025 and a profit turning point by 2026, as new capacities are gradually released and innovative products gain traction [4].

Economic Performance - Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,302.77 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The growth rates for July, August, and September were 7.8%, 13%, and 9.2% respectively, indicating a recovery in the consumption market [1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The significant increase in the durable goods consumption willingness index from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics supports the recovery of the consumption market, reflecting its resilience and vitality [1] - Key categories driving consumption included home appliances (28.2%), furniture (22.1%), new energy vehicles (27%), and communication equipment (9.2%) [1] Policy Impact - The Shanghai government allocated 500 million yuan for issuing consumption vouchers in sectors such as dining, tourism, and culture, with a leverage ratio of 1:3.25 for cultural vouchers [3] - Events like the "Shanghai Summer" international consumption season and the Shanghai Tourism Festival have significantly increased domestic and international tourist numbers, contributing to service consumption growth [3] Night Economy Development - The development of the night economy has created new consumption scenarios, with total night consumption reaching 880.09 billion yuan since June, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [4] - The integration of traditional brands with contemporary trends has attracted younger consumers and enhanced their shopping experience [4] External Factors - The global economic recovery and the release of open policy dividends have positively influenced Shanghai's consumption, with inbound tourism numbers increasing by 37% year-on-year to 6.366 million in the first three quarters [4] - Shanghai's duty-free sales have also seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 83.8%, leading the nation in this sector [5] Recommendations for Future Growth - It is suggested that Shanghai should continue to strengthen consumption subsidy policies, expand their applicability, and enhance the integration of commerce, tourism, and culture to further unlock consumption potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company is accelerating the adjustment of its existing commercial retail sector through a dual strategy of "business format renewal + scene upgrade," which is expected to inject new momentum into its operating performance [1] Group 1: Business Format Renewal - The Minsheng Department Store on Jiefang Road is undergoing a transformation towards a "24-hour dual first-floor street block MALL," with a focus on youth-oriented renovations and the introduction of collection stores, boutique retail, and lifestyle formats [1] - The Minsheng Department Store on Luomashi is being transformed into a cultural and entertainment dining street that combines "trendy subculture + Xi'an historical culture," featuring XR cinemas, national trend brands, and intangible cultural heritage experience workshops [1] - The Wanghai International is accelerating its transition to a "boutique department store similar to a shopping center," leveraging the advantages of the Hainan Free Trade Port policy to deepen cooperation with leading brands in Hainan [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Future Prospects - All three projects are enhancing operational efficiency through business format renewal and scene upgrades, while leveraging the resources of the supply and marketing system to further release asset value [1] - It is expected that by 2025, the adjusted existing commercial properties will significantly improve rental income and customer flow conversion efficiency, contributing to the company's performance growth in conjunction with policy dividends and consumption recovery trends [1]