转自：人民政协报 刚刚过去的2025年，既是"十四五"规划的收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局的衔接之年，更是为基 本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础的关键之年。回望全年，我国经济顶住内外多重压力，持续向新向优进 阶，经济总量预计迈上140万亿元新台阶，圆满完成5%左右的增长目标，充分彰显出强大的发展韧性。 其中，培育和发展新质生产力、实施扩大内需战略、推进高水平对外开放、防范和化解风险、落地适度 宽松政策、深化绿色低碳转型发展路径等，成为驱动经济高质量发展的核心发力点，为稳定预期筑牢坚 实基础。2026年我国经济发展将紧扣"稳中求进、提质增效"主线推进各项工作。以更加积极有为的财政 政策，保持必要支出强度，坚决兜牢基层"三保"底线。执行适度宽松的货币政策，精准助力经济稳定增 长与物价合理回升。 就预期管理来看，当前仍然面临"政策传导梗阻""结构性痛点未消"的现实挑战。一是部分领域存在"政 策热、市场冷"的温度差，2025年设备更新投资同比增长12.2%，但民营企业、中小企业因盈利预期不 明朗、转型信心不足而"不敢投、不愿投"。二是民生领域确定性保障不足，优质教育、医疗资源分布不 均问题尚未根本破解，房地产市场下 ...

再次，持续坚持利率政策与资金效率并重，二者的融合性和互动性将进一步增强。货币政策例会强 调"强化央行政策利率引导"和"畅通货币政策传导机制"，旨在完善市场化利率形成机制，提高资金使用 效率，减少空转套利，同时保持社会综合融资成本处于低位运行，以提升货币政策传导效果和资金配置 效率。 首先，货币政策立场仍保持积极性和支持性，我国经济持续复苏向好的货币政策环境将更加宽松。 货币政策例会明确提出"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，强调通过公开市场操作、降准等工具保持银行体系 流动性充裕，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，引导货币信贷合理增长，促进社会融资规模与经济增长目 标相匹配。这意味着，在下一阶段以及2026年，我国央行将为经济回升向好创造更加适宜的货币金融环 境。 其次，结构性政策工具将持续发力，我国重点产业和重点领域将获得更大力度的金融信贷支持。货 币政策例会提出要"扎实做好金融'五篇大文章'"，即加力支持科技创新、制造业转型升级、绿色发展、 普惠金融和养老金融。结构性货币政策工具将进一步优化，用于引导金融资源更多流向国民经济重点领 域和薄弱环节。 近日，央行召开2025年四季度（总第111次）货币政策例会，对前三季度货 ...

回顾2025年，面对国内外形势深刻复杂的变化，锚定稳增长、扩内需、促创新，财政、货币、产 业、就业、监管等各项政策靶向发力，打出一套目标统一、效能倍增的组合拳。 从"单点突破"迈入"系统集成"，"协同"成为2025年政策设计的主线，也为推动经济回升向好提供坚 实支撑。 财政货币"双宽" 打开协同空间 财政政策基调从"积极"到"更加积极"：财政赤字率首次达到4%左右，比上年提高1个百分点，发行 1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和4.4万亿元地方政府专项债券……政策"用力"又"给力"。 货币政策时隔十多年再次改为"适度宽松"取向：年内分别进行了1次降准和降息、设立服务消费与 养老再贷款……综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，促进金融总量合理增长。数据显示， 前11个月，我国社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。 "2025年，财政政策和货币政策'双宽'，依托常态化协同沟通机制，政策协同效果更为明显，协同 方式更为灵活，协同范围也进一步拓展。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 在债券领域，这种"协同"得到了最好的体现。"各类政府债券净融资规模比上年大幅多增。为了护 航政府债券发行，央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the coordinated approach of fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and promote innovation amidst complex domestic and international conditions [1][2][3] - Fiscal policy has shifted from "active" to "more active," with a fiscal deficit rate reaching approximately 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds [2] - Monetary policy has transitioned to a "moderately loose" orientation for the first time in over a decade, with measures including a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction, resulting in a cumulative social financing scale increase of 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3] Group 2 - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies has been particularly evident in the bond market, with a significant increase in net financing of various government bonds and a net liquidity injection of 4.9 trillion yuan by the central bank, which is 4.2 trillion yuan more than last year [3] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to achieve common goals such as stabilizing growth, expectations, and employment, particularly in key areas like supporting technological innovation and stabilizing the real estate market [3][4] - Policies to expand domestic demand have been prioritized, with a series of measures introduced throughout the year to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment, transitioning from short-term demand stimulation to long-term mechanism construction [4][5] Group 3 - The "subsidy + credit" and "credit + interest subsidy" combinations have effectively amplified policy effects, with 300 billion yuan allocated for subsidies to support the replacement of consumer goods, alongside financial policies encouraging personal consumption loans [5][6] - Data shows significant retail growth in consumer goods categories, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increasing by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [6] - The integration of industrial and financial policies has facilitated technological innovation and industrial upgrading, with a focus on strategic emerging industries and the establishment of a diversified financial service system to support technology-driven enterprises [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed the "Urban and Rural Residents Income Increase Plan" as a core strategy to boost domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, marking a shift from principle-based guidance to systematic and actionable promotion [1] Group 1: Employment Foundation - Wage income is the primary component of residents' income, projected to account for 56.5% of disposable income in 2024, making the expansion of high-quality employment essential for increasing wage income [2] - The plan should prioritize stabilizing and expanding high-quality employment, focusing on key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and older workers, while establishing a comprehensive employment support system [2] - Measures include enhancing cooperation between universities and enterprises, expanding employment opportunities in emerging industries, and establishing lifelong vocational training systems to address structural unemployment risks [2][3] Group 2: Income Channel Expansion - In 2024, property income is expected to account for only 8.3% and operating income for 16.7% of residents' income, indicating significant potential for growth [4] - The plan aims to activate wealth effects in capital markets, optimize rural asset utilization, and cultivate new business entities to broaden income channels [4] - Strategies include stabilizing stock and real estate market expectations, improving access to investment products for ordinary residents, and exploring trust models for rural land and housing rights [4][5] Group 3: Urban-Rural Balance - Addressing the income gap between urban and rural areas is a core challenge, with a focus on increasing rural residents' income through industrial empowerment and public service equalization [6] - The plan suggests promoting urban industry transfer to rural areas and enhancing rural infrastructure to support new business models like e-commerce and rural tourism [6][7] - It also emphasizes improving public services in rural areas, including education and healthcare, to reduce living costs and indirectly increase disposable income [7] Group 4: Distribution Optimization - The redistribution mechanism in China has room for improvement, with plans to reform the tax system and enhance social security to create a more equitable distribution system [8] - Proposed reforms include increasing the proportion of direct taxes, optimizing personal income tax, and implementing tax credits for low-income earners to stimulate consumption [8][9] - The plan also aims to enhance social security coverage and improve transfer payment structures to support underdeveloped regions and reduce income disparities [9] Group 5: Policy Coordination - The income increase plan requires coordinated efforts across fiscal, financial, industrial, and investment policies to ensure effective implementation [10] - It emphasizes the need for consistent macro policy assessments and the alignment of consumption policies with fiscal and financial strategies [10] - The plan encourages investment in consumption infrastructure and projects that stimulate economic growth, creating a virtuous cycle between investment and consumption [10][11] Group 6: Monitoring and Evaluation - A robust statistical monitoring system for consumption and new business models is essential to accurately track income and consumption dynamics [11] - Establishing an evaluation mechanism for the income increase plan's implementation will hold local governments accountable and encourage practical measures [11] Conclusion - The implementation of the Urban and Rural Residents Income Increase Plan is crucial for addressing global economic changes and achieving common prosperity, focusing on high-quality employment, diversified income channels, urban-rural balance, distribution optimization, and policy coordination [12]

【12月18日推出"落实会议部署问答中国"系列述评】鉴于央行逐步淡化量化目标，更重价格型调控工具 作用。新一年，央行或进一步推动收窄利率走廊、稳定国债收益率曲线、改革贷款市场报价利率报价等 工作，加强利率协同与联动，提升货币政策传导效果。加强财政与货币政策协调配合，有助于扩大政策 效能。在贷款贴息、风险补偿、信用增进、国债发行等领域，财政与货币政策仍有深化合作空间。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Economic Recovery Indicators - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [1] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumption upgrade policy has driven sales exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [2] - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [2] Logistics and Delivery Growth - The express delivery business volume surpassed 180 billion pieces for the first time, indicating robust consumer activity [3] - The average monthly express delivery volume since 2025 has exceeded 16 billion pieces, showcasing a new growth trajectory in consumption [3] Policy Support for Economic Growth - The government has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt to enhance financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [4] - New policy financial tools have been implemented to support over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and AI [4] Future Economic Outlook - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to set a proactive macroeconomic policy for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological self-reliance [5] - Fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to remain supportive, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [5]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

编者按：由21世纪经济报道能源策工作室推出的《能源之声》栏目，旨在立足当前我国能源产业发展新形势，围绕政策分析、地方观察、产业研究等方面， 通过外部专家约稿形式给予深刻的见解。第一阶段，《能源之声》栏目将围绕广东省新型储能产业发展情况，由21世纪经济报道能源策工作室联合中国能源 研究会双碳产业合作分会等机构共同邀约，相继推出五篇来自业内专家的文章，为广东省新型储能产业的高质量发展建言献策。本文为第二篇。 广东省新型储能在制造端扩张迅速，但在本地化装机与消纳方面未能同步推进，呈现出显著的"高产能、低利用"的现象。省内已构建了全国领先 的"1+N+N"新型储能政策体系，政策重心也正从产业培育逐步转向电力市场机制建设，旨在推动储能与电力系统深度融合。然而，产业政策侧重产能和规模 投资的"推进"，而电力政策侧重运行效用与市场化收益的"拉动"，两者在目标、节奏和关注指标上缺乏协同，导致市场信号弱、收益不确定、区域供需配置 效率低，进而影响已并网项目的利用小时数和收益水平，以及社会资本再投资的积极性。为破解此困境，实现广东新型储能产业高质量发展，广东需强化政 策协同与绩效导向，真正激活本地消纳需求，推动储能从高速扩张向高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's new energy storage industry is experiencing rapid manufacturing expansion but faces challenges in local installation and consumption, leading to a "high capacity, low utilization" phenomenon. The province has established a leading "1+N+N" policy system for new energy storage, shifting focus from industry cultivation to electricity market mechanism construction to promote deep integration of storage and power systems [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Evolution and Key Analysis - Guangdong has positioned the new energy storage industry as a new economic growth driver, with the "Guiding Opinions" issued in 2023 marking a transition from catalytic support to market-oriented institutional arrangements [3][4]. - The development of energy storage policies in Guangdong has gone through three stages: early cultivation (2022 to early 2023), scale expansion (2023), and quality enhancement (post-2024) [4][5]. - The second stage aims to establish energy storage as a strategic pillar industry, leading to a complete "1+N+N" policy system, while the third stage focuses on integrating storage with the power system through performance-based subsidies and market participation rules [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Logic Upgrade - Guangdong has developed battery industry clusters in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but the market application scenarios for energy storage products remain underdeveloped, leading to a disconnect between supply and demand [5][6]. - To address this, the provincial government has launched initiatives to promote diverse application scenarios for energy storage, including low-carbon industrial parks and data centers, aiming to expand demand-side opportunities [6][7]. - The transition from a single manufacturing focus to a closed-loop model of manufacturing, application, and operation is crucial for sustainable development [6][7]. Group 3: Policy and Market Coordination - The rapid expansion of energy storage capacity has led to a misalignment between industry policies that push for growth and electricity policies that focus on operational efficiency and market returns [11][12]. - The current policy framework emphasizes hardware metrics like capacity and investment, while electricity policies prioritize operational contributions, creating a disconnect in objectives and evaluation [17][18]. - This misalignment has resulted in a structural dilemma where production capacity exceeds market demand, leading to underutilized projects and reduced investment confidence [15][18]. Group 4: Recommendations - To resolve the "high investment, low consumption" dilemma, a more systematic and coordinated policy framework is needed, combining push and pull mechanisms to foster high-quality development in the energy storage sector [19][20]. - Establishing a planning and evaluation system based on the actual value of energy storage in the power system is essential, guiding the layout of storage projects according to regional demand [20][21]. - Enhancing the synergy between storage policies and market dynamics, while promoting innovative business models, will broaden revenue sources and improve overall operational efficiency [21][22].