文 | 听潮TI，作者 | 郭佳哿，编辑 | 张晓 智能驾驶已经走到新的现实拐点。 过去几年，它被定位为高端车型的核心卖点；但随着渗透率进入主流区间，行业焦点开始从PPT里的期 望值转向交付规模。能否真正让更多用户买得起、用得上，成为当下最直接的竞争锚点。 去年末，地平线举办了自己成立十年来的第一届技术生态大会，会上地平线创始人兼CEO余凯给出了新 目标：10万元的车将普遍实现城区NOA。 更早一些，去年年初Momenta创始人曹旭东也曾断言，2025年高阶智驾会规模起势，并在2026年触达10 万级市场。 对内，这是技术与成本的再压缩；对外，则意味着主动拥抱更大体量的普惠市场。 事实上，在能力下放这件事上，真正承担工程复杂度、成本压力和交付责任的，并非只有整车厂。 地平线与Momenta所代表的，是智能驾驶背后一条不被大众熟知但至关重要的供应链价值链：地平线依 托车规级芯片与工具链，试图通过软硬结合建立可复制的量产能力；Momenta以算法和数据驱动的渐进 式迭代路线，与车企深度绑定，推动高阶方案走向规模落地。 它们的角色，不只是技术提供方，更是推动智驾平权的核心力量。 如果说过去的行业竞争更像打着口号炫肌 ...

Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Horizon Robotics - **Industry**: Intelligent driving solutions in China Key Points Market Penetration and Growth - The penetration rate of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) is expected to accelerate in 2026, following rapid growth in highway NOA in 2025, with Horizon Robotics capturing over 40% of the highway NOA market by 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its HSD (High-Performance Driving) product matrix targeting mainstream economy vehicles priced above 100,000 RMB, which is anticipated to increase its market share in urban NOA [1] - Total revenue is projected to reach 15 billion RMB by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58% from 2024 to 2028 [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue estimates for fiscal years ending December are adjusted as follows: - FY25E: 3,269 million RMB (down 3.7% from previous estimate) - FY26E: 5,517 million RMB (down 5.6% from previous estimate) [2] - The company expects to achieve profitability by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Product Launch and Performance - Two HSD solutions launched in Q4 2025 have shown strong activation rates, with 12,000 units activated within two weeks of launch [5] - HSD600 and HSD300 are designed for vehicles priced above 130,000 RMB and are expected to achieve shipments of 25,000 units in 2025 and 461,000 units in 2026, respectively [5] - The company aims to cover approximately 70% of new energy vehicles with its urban NOA solutions starting in 2026 [5] Investor Sentiment and Competitive Landscape - Investor feedback indicates a consensus on the optimistic outlook for the acceleration of intelligent driving feature penetration, with Horizon Robotics seen as a key beneficiary [5] - Concerns exist regarding valuation, with the current stock price reflecting a 13x projected sales multiple for 2027, and increasing competition from third-party suppliers like Momenta [5] - Despite competition, Horizon's market leadership and unique technology position it for a valuation premium [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - The stock price has rebounded 24% since November 21, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which rose 3% during the same period [5] - The target price for the stock is set at 13 HKD by December 2026, based on a 19x forward price-to-sales ratio, which is approximately 79% higher than its Hong Kong peers [9][25] Risks - Key risks affecting the rating include intensified competition, potential order shortfalls due to demand shrinkage or project delays, and disruptions in R&D or supply chains [26] Financial Metrics - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of 54% from 2024 to 2027 [24] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve significantly by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Additional Insights - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions in China, with a product portfolio that includes chips and algorithm suites for entry-level ADAS and higher-level scenarios [24] - Emerging demands from robotaxi and other robotic scenarios are expected to provide long-term growth potential for Horizon Robotics [24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, financial forecasts, product performance, and market positioning.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic investment and control of a leading autonomous driving algorithm provider, referred to as Company Z, by a central state-owned enterprise, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the autonomous driving industry. Group 1: Investment and Control - Company Z has confirmed its strategic investment and control by a central state-owned enterprise, with the approval from relevant departments pending official announcement [4]. - The investment signifies that Company Z will officially join the "national team," gaining access to a broader customer base and substantial financial resources [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Company Z's entry into the Horizon ecosystem is expected to be a major benefit for Horizon, as Z is recognized for its strong engineering capabilities in mid-to-low computing power chip platforms [6]. - The competition is intensifying, with Company Z emerging as a formidable competitor to existing algorithm providers, particularly impacting the IPO prospects of another key player, Company QZ [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The autonomous driving sector is evolving into a large-scale industrial operation, requiring significant resources in terms of personnel, data, and technology, moving away from small entrepreneurial teams [6]. - Collaborations between major players and algorithm providers are becoming essential for competitiveness, as seen with various partnerships in the industry [6].

Group 1: Company Performance - Horizon Robotics-W (09660.HK) reported better-than-expected performance, with projected revenues of 3.4 billion, 5.2 billion, and 6.9 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 43%, 52%, and 34% respectively [8] - The company is currently in a growth phase with its joint venture with Volkswagen, which may impact its performance in the near term [8] - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for Horizon Robotics is projected to be -1.13 billion, -250 million, and 690 million for 2025-2027 [8] Group 2: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that MLF rates are expected to exit the policy rate stage, with a shift in focus towards reverse repo rates and LPR for future interest rate adjustments [3] - The coal industry, represented by China Coal Energy (601898.SH), is experiencing a slight overperformance, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6] - The home appliance sector, represented by Anfu Technology (603031.SH), shows steady revenue growth with a 7.4% increase in total revenue for 2024, and a significant 45.2% increase in net profit [7]

本期关注公司宁德时代、蔚来汽车。 宁德时代组织调整，6 大区重组为两大区，曾毓群直管工厂运营与采购 我们独家获悉，宁德时代上周宣布了一项新的组织架构与汇报关系调整。 调整主要涉及宁德时代的制造体系。调整前，宁德时代已有的超 40 个工厂分属 6 个大区，每个大区 由大区经理负责，大区经理向宁德时代供应链与运营体系联席总裁冯春艳汇报，冯春艳向宁德时代 董事长曾毓群汇报。 调整后，宁德时代所有工厂被重整为国内和海外两个大区，由原大区经理中的安国平、华夏分别担 任海外和国内制造运营负责人，直接向曾毓群汇报。 原本管理 6 个大区生产制造运营的联席总裁冯春艳成为宁德时代运营体系（指工厂相关运营）、采 购中心和 PMC（物流物料管理，供应链的一部分） 的 Sponsor（意为赞助人、支持者）。一位宁德 时代人士称，在宁德时代，Sponsor 的汇报层级和决策权高于实际业务负责人。 原本主管宁德时代采购的联席总裁曾嵘申请退居二线，原采购总经理黄斌开始担任宁德时代采购中 心部长，直接向曾毓群汇报。冯春艳作为采购中心的 Sponsor 也参与采购中心重要决策。 冯春艳出生于 1975 年。1990 年代，曾毓群在东莞新科磁电 ...