Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Horizon Robotics is well-positioned to benefit from the growth potential of global smart driving, with projected global and Chinese smart vehicle sales reaching approximately 80 million and 30 million units by 2030, respectively, and high-level assisted driving and autonomous driving penetration rates approaching 100% [1] - Horizon Robotics holds over 40% market share in the Chinese OEM advanced driver assistance market as of 2024, indicating a strong leadership position [1] - The unique BPU (intelligent computing unit) architecture of Horizon Robotics is a key competitive advantage, enabling higher computing power density and intelligence at lower power consumption and cost [1] Group 2 - Horizon Robotics is expected to ship a cumulative total of 7.7 million units of its Journey series chips by the end of 2024, with projected shipments of 4.2 million, 4.5 million, and 5.5 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - The company anticipates revenue of 3.43 billion, 5.41 billion, and 7.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a forecasted return to profitability in 2027 [2] - A "buy" rating is assigned to Horizon Robotics with a target price of 8.60 HKD, based on a 20x P/S valuation for 2026, using comparable companies such as Nvidia, ARM, Mobileye, and Black Sesame Intelligence [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, setting a target price of HK$8.60, representing a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HK$6.46 [1][6][10]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a key beneficiary in the high-end assisted driving industry, with a strong market share exceeding 40% in China's OEM advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market as of 2024 [7][29]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the global growth potential of smart driving, with projections indicating that global and Chinese smart vehicle sales will reach approximately 80 million and 30 million units by 2030, respectively [7][29]. - The unique BPU (Brain Processing Unit) architecture of Horizon Robotics provides a competitive edge by optimizing hardware and software collaboration, achieving higher computational efficiency at lower power consumption [30][42]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Horizon Robotics are projected at RMB 3.43 billion, RMB 5.41 billion, and RMB 7.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 43.7%, 57.9%, and 37.9% [9][31]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2027, with a projected net profit of RMB 901 million, following losses in the preceding years [9][31]. Market Comparison - The report compares Horizon Robotics with peers such as NVIDIA, ARM, Mobileye, and Black Sesame Intelligence, applying a 20x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to derive the target price [32][71]. - The competitive landscape indicates that Horizon Robotics has established itself as a leader in the mid-to-low-end smart driving hardware market, with plans to penetrate the high-end market further with the launch of the Journey 6 series chips [71][72]. Product Solutions - Horizon Robotics offers three main smart driving solutions: Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, catering to different levels of driving assistance [44][60]. - The Journey 6 series chips, set to launch in 2025, will cover a wide range of smart driving needs, enhancing the company's product matrix [62][67].

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics has gained significant attention in the market following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, indicating strong recognition of its integrated software and hardware technology path and positioning as a leading supplier of intelligent assisted driving solutions in China [1][7]. Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - The launch of the Horizon Journey series has opened up growth opportunities, with the company continuously delivering high-performance software and hardware products, leading to strong market demand [2]. - The Journey series has achieved significant milestones, with cumulative shipments expected to exceed 8 million units by Q1 2025, and the company holds over 40% market share in the Chinese OEM advanced assisted driving solutions market, ranking first [2][4]. - The recent introduction of the HSD urban assisted driving system marks a significant advancement, with partnerships established with major clients like Chery Group and Volkswagen, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for high-end market penetration [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Outlook and Growth Potential - The successful launch and mass production of new products like HSD are expected to enhance the company's revenue and profit, indicating a positive trajectory for overall performance [4]. - The automotive industry is moving towards a "universal intelligent assisted driving" era, with major players like BYD leading the charge, which is likely to benefit Horizon Robotics significantly [5]. - Analysts have expressed optimism regarding Horizon's long-term growth potential, with several brokerages issuing "buy" ratings and predicting a turnaround to profitability by 2027 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Horizon Robotics has developed a robust self-research BPU architecture, continuously iterating its Journey series, with the latest Journey 6 chip offering enhanced data processing capabilities for assisted driving systems [6]. - The Horizon Cell modular system allows for hardware plug-and-play and software upgrades, enhancing performance while reducing costs, positioning the company as a unique supplier in the market [6]. - The company has established partnerships with over 40 automotive brands, including the top ten Chinese automakers, with more than 800 million units shipped and over 200 models in mass production [6].

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics is a leading provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level intelligent driving (AD) solutions in China, focusing on a software-hardware integrated technology path to cover low, medium, and high-end markets with its chips and algorithms [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Horizon Robotics was established in 2015 and has released multiple generations of its Journey series chips since 2017, with cumulative shipments expected to exceed 10 million by 2025 [3]. - The company has a diverse customer base, including major automakers such as Volkswagen, BYD, and Geely, and is projected to hold over 40% and 30% market shares in the Chinese OEM ADAS and AD markets by 2024, ranking first and second respectively [3][4]. - The company has experienced strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of 72% from 2021 to 2024, expecting total revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 [3][18]. Group 2: Market Potential - The intelligent driving solutions market is expected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with significant growth driven by the penetration of high-level intelligent driving technologies [4][44]. - The market for high-level intelligent driving is anticipated to rapidly penetrate the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan segment, with a forecasted increase in demand for intelligent driving solutions [4][35]. - The global market for advanced driver assistance systems and high-level autonomous driving solutions is projected to grow from 61.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,017.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 49.2% [44]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue from automotive solutions is expected to grow significantly, with automotive product solutions revenue projected to reach 664 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 47% [25]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with gross margins of 71%, 69%, 71%, and 77% from 2021 to 2024 [19]. - Despite strong revenue growth, the company has reported net losses from 2021 to 2024, primarily due to high R&D expenditures, with an adjusted net loss of 1.681 billion yuan in 2024 [18][19]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including the Journey series chips, which cover all levels of intelligent driving needs, with the latest Journey 6 series expected to achieve significant performance improvements [54][55]. - Horizon Robotics has a strong focus on R&D, with R&D expenditures projected to reach 3.16 billion yuan in 2024, and a high proportion of its workforce dedicated to R&D [30][32]. - The company has secured numerous patents, with a total of 673 patents, including 585 invention patents, establishing a strong competitive barrier [32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is a leading third-party intelligent driving chip and solution provider in China, with a strong software-hardware integration technology and a leading strategic and business model [1][2] - The year 2025 marks the mass production year for the J6 series chips and high-level full-stack intelligent driving solutions (HSD), with expected shipment volumes exceeding one million units for J6M/E chips [1][2] - The company's intelligent driving solutions are expected to become the primary choice for OEMs, initiating a new growth cycle [1][3] Company Positioning - The company is positioned as an algorithm software company with a focus on intelligent driving solutions, aiming to become the Wintel of the robot era [2][17] - The company has transitioned from a pure software focus to a software-hardware integration model since 2019, becoming the leading third-party intelligent driving solution provider in China [2][17] Industry Trends - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing a shift towards higher penetration rates and a trend of self-sufficiency in the supply chain, with the new car penetration rate expected to rise significantly by 2025 [3][8] - The company is set to benefit from the trend of intelligent driving equality, with mid-to-high-end intelligent driving configurations becoming more accessible [3][8] Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a unique software-hardware integration model, enabling it to provide high-value solutions across the intelligent driving industry [3][8] - The company is leveraging its advanced algorithms and engineering capabilities to optimize performance and production efficiency [3][8] Investment Value - The company is recognized as a leader in self-sufficient intelligent driving chips and is expected to create significant value in high-level intelligent driving solutions [4][10] Financial Performance - The company anticipates total revenue of 2.38 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.6%, with a gross margin of 77.3% [2][36] - The revenue from technology licensing and services is projected to reach 1.65 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 92% [2][36] Product and Business Model - The company focuses on providing full-stack hardware and software products, including chips, algorithms, and development tools, covering low, mid, and high-level intelligent driving solutions [32][35] - The business model is flexible, allowing OEMs and Tier 1 customers to choose from a variety of solutions or components [43][50]

核心观点 智能驾驶芯片行业：千亿市场空间大赛道，国产芯片厂商崭露头角 技术进步+成本下降+消费者接受度高，智能驾驶行业渗透率加速提升，在ADAS功能进一步普及的推动下， 全球 ADAS SoC市场预计从2023年的275亿元增至2028年的925亿元，CAGR为27.5%。自动驾驶SoC供应商方面， 中国的 主要自动驾驶SoC市场参与者包括地平线、黑芝麻智能等；其他国家的主要自动驾驶SoC市场参与者包括英伟达、 Mobileye、高通、Texas Instruments（TI）及瑞萨。目前英伟达、高通、地平线、华为、黑芝麻等均推出了适配L3级及 以上高阶智能驾驶的芯片方案。 地平线机器人-W：自主智能驾驶解决方案龙头 地平线产品包括汽车解决方案（2023年营收占比95%，下同）和非车解决方案（5%）两部分，2023年，公司收入15.52 亿元，同比增长71%，净利润为-67.4亿元。 1）产品端， 汽车解决方案方面，地平线作为国内头部智能驾驶SoC芯片 厂商，征程系列芯片布局包括征程2、征程3、征程5、征程6，已完全覆盖L1-L4智能驾驶。 2）客户端， 依托完整成 熟的软硬件产品矩阵与智驾全栈技术，从IP开 ...

以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 这类公司不易生存，也不易被理解，但它们正在到来。 文丨赵宇 程曼祺 编辑丨程曼祺 10 月 24 日，地平线登陆港交所主板，募资约 54 亿港元，成为今年港股最大 IPO。 IPO 首日，地平线股价一度涨超 30%，收盘市值为 534 亿港元（约 69 亿美元），低于 D 轮融资的估值 87.1 亿美元。IPO 前，地平线累计融资 32 轮（计算各小轮次），共募资 23.63 亿美元，有大约 100 家机 构参与。 曾在 A+ 轮服务地平线融资的泰合资本管理合伙人梅林称，这在中国近年来的硬科技公司中，排得上投资 人数量和融资规模的 Top 10。 地平线身后的投资结构多元，既有五源资本、高瓴、DST、Baillie Gifford 等财务资本，也有上汽、宁德时 代、比亚迪等国内产业方，还有大众、英特尔、SK 海力士等大型全球产业方。 谁最坚定，谁回报最高？ 五源是最早决定领投地平线的机构，也是最坚定的机构，在财务机构中，目前它占地平线的股比最大， IPO 前持股 5.54%。据招 ...