上海跟进放松，地产投资机会怎么看？20250825 摘要 上海楼市新政出台后，地产板块处于牛市背景下，预计会有补涨或跟涨的趋势。 政策落地、半年报披露期内企业积极变化等催化剂将推动地产板块持续上涨。 推荐关注存量地产的三个方向：商业地产、物业管理和二手房中介。重点推荐 标的包括新城控股（预计有接近 3 倍的空间）、华润置地、我爱我家、中国金 贸、万物云和绿城服务。 上海楼市新政与北京政策在限购放松和公积金政策方面相似，但上海作 为房产税试点城市，政策力度和时间节点超预期，预计新房成交量首周 可能翻倍，三四季度保持良好成交量。 北京 2025 年 8 月 8 日出台的房地产政策效果低于去年 9 月 24 日的政 策，主要原因是去年政策是包括限购、契税减免、增值税减免以及房贷 利率下降等多方面措施的组合拳。 上海在本轮房地产周期中表现领先，通过放宽户口限制和引进新兴产业， 在同样力度的房地产政策下，预期效果弹性更大，新房成交量可能环比 翻倍，二手房成交量可能环比提升 30%至 40%。 预计上海此次房地产政策将具有较强的持续性，参考北京经验，政策效 果至少能维持一个季度左右，即整个金九银十期间，并且到 11 月份 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced an overall increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.17% and the average stock price index of the entire A-share market increasing by 2.17%, indicating a positive short-term market sentiment [1] Key Factors Influencing Next Week's Market - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still within the contraction zone. However, the high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for five consecutive months, indicating resilience in the technology sector [3] - Domestic policies are clearly supportive of technology growth sectors, particularly in AI, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Additionally, urban renewal and village renovation policies are expected to bring long-term benefits across multiple industries, including construction, building materials, and real estate [3] - Internationally, there is a high probability (97.4%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, contributing to a relatively loose market expectation. However, the U.S. imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese anode-grade graphite may impact related industries [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 3500-point mark this week, with increased trading volume. If the volume continues to expand next week, there is potential for the index to break through 3550 points; otherwise, it may experience increased volatility around 3530 points. The MACD indicator shows strengthening bullish momentum, and the RSI has not yet entered the overbought territory, suggesting further upward potential for the market [3] Capital Flow Insights - In the second quarter, northbound funds increased their positions in the financial, industrial, and healthcare sectors, with significant inflows into leading stocks such as CATL and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical. There is a noticeable rotation of funds from high-dividend sectors to technology growth sectors. The margin trading balance has exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan for 21 consecutive trading days, indicating active leveraged funds [4] Investment Strategies for Long-term Investors - The technology growth sector remains a focal point, with strong policy support and promising industry prospects, particularly in new energy vehicles, which benefit from tax exemptions and subsidies extending to the end of 2025. The Shanghai Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry Cluster aims for a market scale exceeding 350 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on L3 autonomous driving and solid-state battery technologies [4] - The financial sector should not be overlooked, as northbound funds have increased their positions in this area, with banks like Ping An Bank and Bank of China receiving notable inflows. Increased market trading volume is expected to boost brokerage performance, making brokerage ETFs worth considering [4] - Urban renewal and village renovation policies will create long-term investment opportunities in construction, building materials, and real estate sectors, with central government support directed towards major cities and key river basins [4] Upcoming Market Considerations - Next week, 43 companies will have lock-up shares released, with a total market value of 87.761 billion yuan, which may exert pressure on stock prices, particularly for companies like Daqo New Energy and Guobang Electronics. Additionally, any adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) could influence market expectations, although the consensus is that it will remain unchanged [5] - The upcoming week is seen as a critical window for the A-share market, with ongoing dynamics between policy expectations and actual economic recovery. Long-term investors are advised to remain patient and focus on technology growth, financial, and urban renewal-related sectors, looking for opportunities to enter at lower prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong provincial government emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal and village reconstruction in response to the economic situation in the first quarter [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The meeting highlighted the importance of continuous efforts to halt the decline in the real estate market and achieve stabilization [1] - There is a focus on enhancing the planning, design, and construction of "good houses" to improve housing quality [1] Group 2: Urban Development Initiatives - The government aims to vigorously advance urban renewal projects and the transformation of urban villages as part of its economic strategy [1]