一位刚刚卖掉一套二手房的房主向媒体表示，"自己去年（2025年）房子挂牌之后，就有中介不断联系自己将房源的挂牌价下调，说辞多是称行情不好，如 果不降价尽快出手，后面会更难卖掉"。最终，该房主同意降价，房子也最终出售。 值得注意的是，针对此类行为，全国多地曾先后出台多项政策。例如，2025年9月30日，北京房地产中介行业协会发布《关于规范房地产经纪行为、助力市 场健康发展的倡议》，明确提出禁止虚假带看及引诱业主低价挂牌，不得为满足公司KPI考核雇佣人员制造虚假带看量，不得采用PUA手段损害房主合法权 益；不得通过虚报低价、做局砸盘等方式对房主施加降价压力。 据财闻报道，针对这一问题，不同中介给出了不同回应。一位中介人员证实，此类任务"之前有过"，但"今年已经不允许，所以取消了"。另一平台的经纪人 则表示自己没有这类硬性指标，并指出当前二手房源充裕，他们会优先服务"诚心出售"、价格灵活的业主。此外，还有多名从业者没有正面回复门店是否有 房源降价的任务，但表示"现在二手房门店很卷"。 有房屋中介表示，一些二手房平台的中介工作人员甚至没有底薪，而是采用借薪制，即在未开单之前每个月会借给中介最低工资，待其开单后再将这部 ...

对话 2026 年关键词：金融地产篇 20251224 摘要 非银金融板块，尤其是线上保险和券商，在未来一年内相较于银行更具 增长潜力。线上保险受益于权益仓位占比提升，若股市走牛，投资端收 益将显著增强；居民资产配置调整也利好保险的稳健收益产品。 保险公司 H 股修复明显，A 股滞后，预计 2026 年基本面将进一步改善。 险种结构优化，新险种如商保、医保数据探索和分红型重疾险有望带来 增量，同时报行合一推进提升保单利润率。 券商在跨年行情中表现良好，春季躁动期间胜率高。尽管今年 A 股券商 表现不佳，但业绩持续释放和市场活跃度提升未充分定价，使其具备超 额收益潜力。 2026 年银行业策略关注息差和资产增速。房地产政策影响下，银行量 价将呈现均衡格局，息差成为核心营收增长关键。贷款定价有望触底回 升，存款利率调降推动息差 L 型筑底。 预计 2026 年信贷增量持平或略低于 2025 年，社融增速和信贷增速剪 刀差延续。存款利率下行，信贷扩张放缓，存贷增速维持紧平衡。核心 营收预计小幅增长，非息收入是关键扰动因素。 Q&A 2026 年金融板块的投资机会和风险如何？ 在 2026 年，金融板块可能成为推动指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector and property management, highlighting potential opportunities in shopping centers and the "Good House" new track [3][4]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate industry continues to weaken, with significant declines in new starts and completions. For January to November 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18% [3][4][19]. - The sales side shows a downward trend in sales area, sales amount, and average sales price. For the same period, the sales area fell by 7.8%, sales amount by 11.1%, and average price by 3.4% year-on-year [20][32]. - The funding side indicates a widening decline in funding sources, with total funding down by 11.9% year-on-year. In November alone, funding sources dropped by 32.5% [37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to November 2025, real estate development investment totaled 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. In November, the investment growth rate was -30.3%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from October [4][19]. - The residential investment during the same period was 604.32 billion yuan, also down 15% year-on-year, with November showing a -29.5% growth rate [4][19]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January to November was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year. In November, the sales area decreased by 17.3% [20][32]. - The total sales amount reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with November's sales amount at 611.3 billion yuan, a 25.1% decrease [20][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. In November, the decline was 32.5% [37]. - Domestic loans decreased by 10.4% in November, while self-raised funds fell by 30.7% [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the systemic issues in the second-hand housing market, particularly the lack of transparency in pricing mechanisms, which has led to the emergence of "performance economics" among real estate agents [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Economics in Real Estate - "Performance economics" has evolved into a well-defined chain of interests, where agents employ "viewing actors" trained to manipulate sellers' perceptions to achieve significant price reductions [1][2]. - Some agents reportedly earn over 500,000 yuan monthly through these tactics, shifting their focus from facilitating fair transactions to maximizing volume-based profits [1]. Group 2: Market Distortion and Buyer Impact - The prevalence of "performance economics" creates market anxiety and distorts the pricing mechanism, forcing sellers to accept offers significantly below actual property values [2][3]. - Genuine buyers face confusion due to misleading quotes from agents, leading to a fear of overpaying or hesitance to purchase altogether, resulting in a dysfunctional market dynamic [2]. Group 3: Lack of Transparency - The core issue of "performance economics" is rooted in the severe lack of transparency in the second-hand housing market, characterized by hidden transaction prices, increased information asymmetry, and outdated regulatory frameworks [2][3]. - Buyers struggle to access historical transaction data, making it easy for agents to manipulate perceived market values, as previous attempts to implement government-guided pricing have largely failed [2][3]. Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - Current regulations lack clear definitions for manipulative practices like "psychological price pressure" and "scripted marketing," leaving buyers vulnerable when seeking redress for unfair treatment [3][4]. - Some large agencies have monopolized listings in certain areas, gaining the ability to manipulate local prices, which poses a greater threat to market fairness than isolated fraudulent activities [3]. Group 5: Consumer Trust and Market Health - The transformation of property transactions into a "performance stage" for agents undermines public trust in asset safety and disrupts normal market order [4]. - The market requires comprehensive transparency in transaction prices, processes, and fee structures to eliminate "performance economics" and restore public confidence in the second-hand housing market [4].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around real estate agents hiring individuals to pose as buyers to negotiate lower prices, which undermines market integrity and trust between buyers and sellers [1][2] - The practice of hiring "shills" by agents serves three main purposes: meeting company viewing quotas, applying psychological pressure on sellers, and altering sellers' price expectations to facilitate transactions [1][2] - This behavior reflects a shift in the real estate market dynamics, where agents now work to lower prices in a buyer's market, contrasting with previous practices where they encouraged sellers to raise prices [2] Group 2 - The commission structure for real estate agents is typically a percentage of the sale price, which incentivizes them to manipulate price information to maximize their earnings [2] - The transparency issue in the market is highlighted by the recent actions of certain agencies, such as hiding transaction prices, which raises concerns about market integrity and can lead to panic selling among consumers [3] - The lack of price transparency, intended to prevent market panic, may instead exacerbate market issues by misleading participants about actual market conditions [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Shanghai Real Estate Policy Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in Shanghai and its recent policy changes, comparing them with similar policies in Beijing [1][3][21]. Key Points and Arguments Shanghai Real Estate Policy - Shanghai's new real estate policy is expected to significantly boost new home sales, potentially doubling transaction volumes in the first week post-implementation [1][5]. - The policy includes relaxed household registration restrictions and increased public housing fund loan limits, which are anticipated to enhance market activity [3][10]. - The expected duration of the policy's positive effects is at least one quarter, likely maintaining high transaction volumes through the "Golden September and Silver October" period [1][12]. Comparison with Beijing Policy - The new policy in Shanghai is similar to Beijing's, with both cities relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing fund loan limits [3][9]. - However, Shanghai's policy is more favorable for non-local residents, as it exempts the first home purchase from property tax [3][10]. Market Performance and Predictions - The real estate sector is currently in a bullish phase, with expectations of a continued upward trend driven by policy catalysts and positive corporate earnings reports [2][6][17]. - New home sales in Beijing saw a 50%-60% increase following the last policy change, with expectations that Shanghai will outperform this [5][21]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended investment areas include commercial real estate, property management, and second-hand housing intermediaries, with specific companies highlighted such as New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and I Love My Home [2][6][20]. - New Town Holdings is particularly favored, with a conservative valuation range of 50-75 billion, based on its strong commercial real estate performance [18][19]. Future Catalysts - Future catalysts for the real estate sector include potential policy changes in Shenzhen and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a favorable environment for domestic rate reductions [13][16]. - Urban renewal and village reconstruction projects are expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year, further stimulating the market [14][15]. Additional Insights - The recovery of idle land and land storage has shown significant progress, with expectations of increased issuance of special bonds for land recovery [15]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with a strong belief that the real estate market will continue to see positive developments and investment opportunities in the coming months [21]. Conclusion - The Shanghai real estate policy is set to create substantial market activity and investment opportunities, particularly in commercial real estate and property management sectors. The overall outlook for the real estate market remains positive, with several catalysts expected to drive growth in the near future [21].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of second-hand housing "valuation" live streaming on social media platforms is seen as a new way to expose properties, but it is accompanied by various "tricks" that can mislead consumers [2][10]. Group 1: Live Streaming Dynamics - A new trend of second-hand housing valuation live streams has emerged, where homeowners and hosts negotiate property prices in front of an audience [2][4]. - Some homeowners are reportedly "water army" actors, using scripted dialogues to create conflict and attract viewers, which raises concerns about the authenticity of the valuations presented [2][6]. - The interaction often involves the host suggesting lower prices, which aligns with the current buyer's market, where sellers are pressured to reduce their asking prices [6][10]. Group 2: Market Environment - The second-hand housing market is currently characterized by high listing volumes and a trend of "price for volume," with significant year-on-year price declines reported in major cities [9][10]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.75% month-on-month and 7.26% year-on-year as of June 2025 [9]. - The market is sensitive to pricing, and drastic price cuts in one property can trigger a chain reaction, leading to further price reductions in the area [10]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - Industry associations have raised alarms about the lack of scientific and standardized valuation processes in these live streams, which can mislead consumers and disrupt the normal order of the real estate market [10][11]. - The real estate valuation is a highly specialized field, and the current practices in some live streams do not meet the necessary professional standards [10][11]. - There is a growing trend of regulatory oversight in various cities regarding real estate self-media, emphasizing the need for professionalism and adherence to legal standards in property valuation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. The focus is on long-term strategies, maintaining stability while progressing, and establishing foundational systems in an orderly manner [4][8]. - The term "stop the decline and stabilize" has been reiterated, suggesting that further supportive policies may be introduced to enhance market stability. This reflects the central government's ongoing commitment to stabilizing housing prices and addressing the current market challenges [6]. - The "Good Housing" initiative is gaining traction, with increased support from various provinces and a shift in policy focus from mere housing availability to creating livable environments. This initiative is expected to accelerate development and improve the quality of housing [6][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market. This includes a thorough assessment of existing land and ongoing projects to refine current policies [4][6]. - The new development model aims to be a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term fix, with an emphasis on gradual implementation and avoiding abrupt changes in policy [6][8]. Market Analysis - The report notes that while transaction volumes in the primary and secondary housing markets have stabilized over the past three years, price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to enhance policy support [6]. - The anticipated new round of supportive policies may include measures such as mortgage rate reductions, increased "Good Housing" initiatives, and optimized land storage policies, which are expected to benefit quality real estate companies [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies that are likely to lead the market recovery, including firms like China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments. It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies for potential investment opportunities [6][11][12].