上海跟进放松，地产投资机会怎么看？20250825 摘要 上海楼市新政出台后，地产板块处于牛市背景下，预计会有补涨或跟涨的趋势。 政策落地、半年报披露期内企业积极变化等催化剂将推动地产板块持续上涨。 推荐关注存量地产的三个方向：商业地产、物业管理和二手房中介。重点推荐 标的包括新城控股（预计有接近 3 倍的空间）、华润置地、我爱我家、中国金 贸、万物云和绿城服务。 上海楼市新政与北京政策在限购放松和公积金政策方面相似，但上海作 为房产税试点城市，政策力度和时间节点超预期，预计新房成交量首周 可能翻倍，三四季度保持良好成交量。 北京 2025 年 8 月 8 日出台的房地产政策效果低于去年 9 月 24 日的政 策，主要原因是去年政策是包括限购、契税减免、增值税减免以及房贷 利率下降等多方面措施的组合拳。 上海在本轮房地产周期中表现领先，通过放宽户口限制和引进新兴产业， 在同样力度的房地产政策下，预期效果弹性更大，新房成交量可能环比 翻倍，二手房成交量可能环比提升 30%至 40%。 预计上海此次房地产政策将具有较强的持续性，参考北京经验，政策效 果至少能维持一个季度左右，即整个金九银十期间，并且到 11 月份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of second-hand housing "valuation" live streaming on social media platforms is seen as a new way to expose properties, but it is accompanied by various "tricks" that can mislead consumers [2][10]. Group 1: Live Streaming Dynamics - A new trend of second-hand housing valuation live streams has emerged, where homeowners and hosts negotiate property prices in front of an audience [2][4]. - Some homeowners are reportedly "water army" actors, using scripted dialogues to create conflict and attract viewers, which raises concerns about the authenticity of the valuations presented [2][6]. - The interaction often involves the host suggesting lower prices, which aligns with the current buyer's market, where sellers are pressured to reduce their asking prices [6][10]. Group 2: Market Environment - The second-hand housing market is currently characterized by high listing volumes and a trend of "price for volume," with significant year-on-year price declines reported in major cities [9][10]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.75% month-on-month and 7.26% year-on-year as of June 2025 [9]. - The market is sensitive to pricing, and drastic price cuts in one property can trigger a chain reaction, leading to further price reductions in the area [10]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - Industry associations have raised alarms about the lack of scientific and standardized valuation processes in these live streams, which can mislead consumers and disrupt the normal order of the real estate market [10][11]. - The real estate valuation is a highly specialized field, and the current practices in some live streams do not meet the necessary professional standards [10][11]. - There is a growing trend of regulatory oversight in various cities regarding real estate self-media, emphasizing the need for professionalism and adherence to legal standards in property valuation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. The focus is on long-term strategies, maintaining stability while progressing, and establishing foundational systems in an orderly manner [4][8]. - The term "stop the decline and stabilize" has been reiterated, suggesting that further supportive policies may be introduced to enhance market stability. This reflects the central government's ongoing commitment to stabilizing housing prices and addressing the current market challenges [6]. - The "Good Housing" initiative is gaining traction, with increased support from various provinces and a shift in policy focus from mere housing availability to creating livable environments. This initiative is expected to accelerate development and improve the quality of housing [6][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market. This includes a thorough assessment of existing land and ongoing projects to refine current policies [4][6]. - The new development model aims to be a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term fix, with an emphasis on gradual implementation and avoiding abrupt changes in policy [6][8]. Market Analysis - The report notes that while transaction volumes in the primary and secondary housing markets have stabilized over the past three years, price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to enhance policy support [6]. - The anticipated new round of supportive policies may include measures such as mortgage rate reductions, increased "Good Housing" initiatives, and optimized land storage policies, which are expected to benefit quality real estate companies [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies that are likely to lead the market recovery, including firms like China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments. It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies for potential investment opportunities [6][11][12].