1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market show different trends and investment opportunities under the influence of macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. The macro - economic environment is complex, with the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, China's economic data changes, and geopolitical events all affecting the market [5][6]. - Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be in a wide - range shock, some may continue to decline, while others may have short - term rebounds or long - term upward trends depending on their specific supply - demand and cost situations [12][14][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion per month from December 12. The Fed also raised its GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2028 [5]. - China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting the highest since March 2024, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month but widened its year - on - year decline to 2.2% [6]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, raising the forecasts by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to October [7]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.02%. The market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan. Adopt a wide - range shock strategy and pay attention to the coordination of volume and price [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - If there is a consensus on the decline of the capital - level center, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound first, while the ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and still need caution in the medium term [13]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may be in a short - term weak shock. In the future, pay attention to the production of coal mines, safety supervision, and the change of downstream molten iron output. Due to factors such as the approaching end of the year and environmental protection, coal production is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season restricts the price increase [14]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low strategy; for silicomanganese, a short - at - high strategy in the medium term. The fundamentals of the two have limited changes recently, and pay attention to the price changes of raw materials and the impact of steel mill procurement [15]. 3.3.3 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The soda ash industry has a supply recovery but weak upstream production willingness, while the glass industry has an increasing expectation of cold repair of production lines [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock. As of December 8, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. With frequent macro - positive news and an open export window, zinc prices may be supported, but weak downstream consumption drags them down. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [16]. 3.4.2 Lead - Short - term lead prices may remain in shock, and there is a risk of the center of operation moving down. As of December 8, the lead inventory decreased, but the factory inventory of primary lead enterprises increased. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is mainly in a wide - range shock. Although the demand is slightly weakening, the long - term demand is good, and the supply is increasing, limiting the short - term price increase space [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. Pay attention to the impact of environmental protection in Xinjiang and coking coal price fluctuations at the end of the month. The subsequent focus may shift to the expectation of polysilicon production cuts [22]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to be strong, and the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price. Pay attention to the follow - up actions of the platform company [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term supply surplus, but the demand expectation is improving. The high - cost factor supports the Zhengzhou cotton price. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the short - term adjustment [25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. New sugar listing pressure weighs on prices, but cost support limits the decline. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the festival, the spot price increase may be limited. The near - month contracts are dragged down by the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in inventory but are currently over - valued. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The price is expected to be in shock. The trading in the production area has slowed down, and the sales in the sales area are affected by the listing of citrus fruits [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - Pay attention to the change of spot prices and short at high prices. The current upward trend of corn is due to the "supply - demand mismatch," which is gradually alleviating [32]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable and strong, and the futures price is in shock [33]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The current rebound of crude oil lacks sustainable driving force. Pay attention to the US sanctions on Venezuela. The price is mainly in shock [37]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure. Adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for the price to rebound before shorting [38]. 3.6.3 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The price is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the raw material supply in the production area and the domestic demand [39]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to continue to be in shock in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the price of butadiene and downstream procurement sentiment [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after smooth inventory reduction [41]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - term shock strategy. Avoid going long on near - month contracts and take profit on short positions. Wait and see for long positions in the main contract [43]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after winter storage. The geopolitical situation and demand changes are the main influencing factors [45]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is in shock. Consider a strategy of going long on PTA and short on PF. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand and cost situations [47]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is expected to change from high - level shock to decline. The previous upward - driving logic has been fulfilled, and pay attention to the decline of downstream chemical开工 rates [48]. 3.6.10 Pulp - After the positive news is exhausted, the pulp sentiment declines. The price is in shock. Pay attention to port inventory, warehouse receipt removal speed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm [49]. 3.6.11 Logs - The log market is in a weak - shock state. The spot price is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The basis provides some support, but the short - term price is still under pressure [50]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market is expected to be stable and weak. Adopt a shock strategy. The futures price is affected by spot transactions and the price of coking coal [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A shares showed a unilateral upward trend, with technology themes being active and sector rotation accelerating. The overall economy has short - term fluctuations, but the domestic industrial upgrade - driven economic transformation continues. [10] - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. For example, some are in a trend of short - term shock, while others are in a long - term upward or downward trend. [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5. DeepSeek released and open - sourced two models. The approval of public - offering funds has an inverse - cycle adjustment mechanism. [6] - In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a "tail - end rally". [6][7] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November was below 50. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike. South Korea's exports in November increased year - on - year. Silver prices soared to a record high. [7][8] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - based strategy and wait and see for the time being. A shares rose unilaterally, with technology themes being active. The economic data in October showed a short - term decline, but the industrial upgrade is continuing. [10] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to fluctuate widely. The market is affected by factors such as expected central bank bond - buying and bond - fund redemptions. It is recommended to buy medium - and short - duration 10 - year bonds on dips and be cautious about ultra - long - duration bonds. [11][12] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Pay attention to the impact of macro - level meetings on market expectations. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore is relatively strong. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. [13] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in iron - water production. [13][14] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, there is a risk of increased surplus, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities. For silicon iron, it is recommended to hold long positions. [15] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. Pay attention to supply - side changes such as production cuts and new - capacity launches. [16] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. [18] Lead - The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. [19][20] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will fluctuate widely. The long - term demand is good, but the short - term upward space is limited. [21] Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will continue to fluctuate. [22] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to try to buy put options in the short term and stop profits in time. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but the high cost supports the price. The price is expected to rebound. [25][26] Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and it is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term. [27][28] Apples - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The purchase of late - maturing Fuji has ended, and the market is affected by factors such as inventory and competing fruits. [29] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the long - term supply pressure is large. [30] Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level. [31] Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. In the long term, the decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is in a long - term downward trend. Although there are short - term positive factors, the supply - surplus problem is prominent. [35] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil, with supply being loose and demand being weak. [36] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy after rallies. [37][38] Rubber - The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to factors such as raw - material supply and weather. [39] Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to short on rallies. [40] Methanol - In the short term, use a shock - based strategy for near - month contracts and a slightly bullish strategy for far - month contracts if inventory reduction is smooth. [41][42] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weakening. It is advisable to adopt a short - term weakly bearish strategy. [43][44] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter - storage game. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure is okay, and it will follow the cost trend in the short term. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is advisable to short on rallies. [47] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it will enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. [48] Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term and is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance. [49] Urea - The spot price is expected to be slightly bullish, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is in a volatile state, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3939.81 points, and over 4100 stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given, such as steel and ore may be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term; lithium carbonate may see a price correction in Q1 2026 but offers a chance to buy on dips [11][12][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. A - shares are volatile and declining, with most stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may be due to technical factors, export drag, "anti - involution" impact, and the real - estate cycle [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Although the market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts. Maintain a bullish view on the bond market due to the decline in fiscal policy. The tax - payment period has tightened the capital market, and the bond market's news is light. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [8]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Future market view: In the short - term, the industry may return to fundamentals after a series of macro - events. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro - expectations. - Fundamental analysis: Demand is weak, supply may decline later, and inventory is high compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, while coal and coke futures prices are weak. Steel prices are likely to remain weak. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. - Spot market: Steel and iron ore spot prices show different trends, and the overall trading volume is poor [10][11]. Coal and Coke - View: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term. Later, pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot - metal production. - Fluctuation reason: Coal production has increased slightly but remains low, and coke production is in a loss state. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is still supported in the short - term. - Future outlook: The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium - term, but it may increase in the short - term. The weakening demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk still restrict the prices of coal and coke [12]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The volatility of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The market is still in a volatile range, and there is no obvious negative feedback [13]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: The current fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in the power sector in Q1 2026. If production resumes at Jiaxiaowo and demand weakens, the price may continue to correct. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is in a range - bound state and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - Polysilicon: The industry still has expectations for "anti - involution." The spot price is firm, and the supply - demand contradiction is weak. It will continue to be volatile [18]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The high cost resists price declines, and it is in a low - level volatile state. - Future outlook: The USDA's November supply - demand report is bearish, and domestic supply is large while demand is weak. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, which limits the decline [21]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar supply - demand outlook is bearish. Before the large - scale impact of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. There is still supply pressure in the long - term. - Future outlook: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic new sugar production is increasing, and the low cost of imported sugar suppresses the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures [23]. Eggs - View: The spot market is weak, and the futures price has declined to correct the premium. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the probability of a significant price increase before the Spring Festival is low. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [26]. Apples - View: The price is in a volatile state. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is low while the price is high. The follow - up consumption will affect the future price [28]. Corn - View: Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. The price may correct, but the decline space is limited [29]. Red Dates - View: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level and are in a volatile and slightly upward state [30]. Pigs - Overall view: The supply pressure continues, and demand is average. The spot price is likely to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [30]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: The market is balancing the impact of supply surplus and geopolitical conflicts. The supply is expected to be in surplus in Q1 2026, and OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but this has not fundamentally changed the situation. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to be volatile [33]. Fuel Oil - The price is influenced by geopolitical and macro - factors and will follow the trend of crude - oil prices. The supply is loose, and demand is weak [34]. Plastics - View: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to be weak and volatile. However, the high production cost of upstream enterprises may provide some support [35]. Rubber - Strategy: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between RU and NR. After the price rebounds, appropriately reduce the position of selling out - of - the - money put options. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [36]. Methanol - View: The market is highly volatile due to factors such as whether Iran restricts gas supply and port inventory changes. The supply pressure is large, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month contracts can be slightly long after a rebound [37]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is declining, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. There are factors driving the long - position, such as rising coal prices. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. Pulp - The market sentiment has weakened, and the price is in a wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are weak and volatile, and the spot price has declined. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is expected to be under pressure [46]. Urea - The spot price is expected to strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be strong [47]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is in a short - term range - bound state. It is advisable to be cautious when going long and can sell call options after a rebound [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - The downstream demand is insufficient, and the market lacks continuous driving force. It is expected to be in a volatile state in the short - term [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Although the short - term fundamentals are favorable, the price has risen significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the rise. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [44].