美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：小讯 知情人士称，官员们认为这些措施将通过提高基础通胀率，有助于实现日本央行的经济预期。知情人士 表示，如果经济预期得以实现，央行在加息方面的立场不会改变。官员们认为，若基础通胀在去年4月 开始的三年期的下半年能符合其通胀目标，预计不会需要调整基础通胀预期。 1月9日，知情人士称，尽管日本央行预计将保持基准利率不变，但预计将在本月会议上上调经济增长预 期。 日本央行可能会在1月23日发布的季度经济展望报告中，将4月开始的2026财年经济增长预期从0.7%上 调，当前财年的经济预期也可能会被上调。上调主要反映了上个月国会通过的高市早苗经济方案的预期 影响。日本央行上月加息至0.75%，为1995年以来的最高水平。这一决定考虑到了政府新措施的影响。 ...

中新社悉尼1月7日电澳大利亚统计局7日发布数据显示，该国2025年11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上 涨3.4%，低于10月份的3.8%。 数据显示，这是该指数连续4个月走高后首次回落。澳统计局价格统计主管米歇尔·马夸特(Michelle Marquardt)表示，推动澳11月CPI上涨的主要因素是住房价格，同比涨幅为5.2%，其次是食品与非酒精 饮料价格同比上涨3.3%，以及交通价格同比上涨2.7%。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 澳大利亚国库部长查默斯7日发表声明表示，最新数据显示2025年11月通胀放缓，令人鼓舞。他同时 称，2026年澳大利亚经济面临通货膨胀、生产力下降和全球不确定性等挑战。澳政府将继续推出一系列 经济举措，应对物价上涨，同时提高生产力和增强经济韧性。(完) 作为澳大利亚储备银行(央行)重点关注的基础通胀率指标，澳11月截尾均值通胀率从10月的3.3%小幅回 落至3.2%。澳大利亚广播公司报道称，11月通胀有所降温，但仍超出澳央行设定的2%至3%的通胀目标 区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, reiterated the intention to further raise interest rates, but emphasized a high degree of data dependency, indicating significant uncertainty regarding the timing and pace of future rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - This marks the first interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan since January, with the decision being unanimously approved [2]. - Ueda stated that if the economy and prices develop as expected, the central bank will continue to raise policy rates, but warned that delayed actions could necessitate rapid increases in the future [3][9]. - The pace of adjustments to the accommodative policy will depend on economic, price, and financial conditions at each meeting [5]. Group 2: Neutral Interest Rate - Ueda highlighted the ambiguity surrounding the neutral interest rate, which is a key factor limiting the clarity of the policy path [8]. - The central bank's estimate of Japan's neutral interest rate remains broad, making precise estimations difficult, and any adjustments may not significantly narrow this range [8]. - Even with a rate increase to 0.75%, the policy rate would still be some distance from the lower end of the neutral rate range [8]. Group 3: Wage Growth as a Key Indicator - Wage growth is viewed as a critical indicator for determining future rate hike potential, with initial momentum in next year's wage negotiations appearing positive [10][11]. - Sustained wage increases are necessary to prevent a decline in core inflation, and if wage growth continues to transmit to prices, further rate hikes could be possible [11]. - Ueda noted that while small businesses show overall stable profits, there is a divergence among the smallest firms that requires careful monitoring [11]. Group 4: Yen Dynamics and Market Reactions - Recent depreciation of the yen has raised concerns about upward price pressures and its impact on core inflation [12]. - Following Ueda's remarks, the dollar rose against the yen, reflecting the market's immediate reaction to policy uncertainties [12]. - The central bank will closely observe the potential transfer of tariff impacts to consumers and the sustainability of growth related to artificial intelligence [12]. Group 5: Market Credibility Concerns - The credibility of the Bank of Japan is being questioned as inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target for four consecutive years [14]. - Analysts suggest that while there is room for further rate hikes next year, the timing remains uncertain and will depend on the progress of annual spring wage negotiations, with low likelihood for hikes before June [14]. - Ueda reiterated that future policy decisions will rely on data available at upcoming meetings, emphasizing a collaborative approach with the government to guide monetary policy [14].

Core Viewpoint - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 3.6% and the previous month's increase of 3.6% [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The primary driver for the CPI increase was housing prices, which rose by 5.9%, reflecting higher costs in electricity, rent, and new housing [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator monitored by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), rose from 3.2% in September to 3.3% in October, exceeding the RBA's target range of 2% to 3% [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The latest inflation data reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the RBA this year and raises concerns about potential interest rate hikes [1] - This release marks the first complete monthly CPI report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, transitioning from quarterly to monthly measurements for a more timely assessment of inflation changes [1] Group 3: Significance of the Data Release - The Australian statistician highlighted that the complete monthly CPI represents a significant improvement in measuring key economic data, providing more comprehensive and accurate information for policy decision-making [1]

Core Points - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-on-year in August, marking the highest level since July 2024 and an increase from 2.8% in July [1] - Key contributors to the CPI increase include housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and tobacco, with housing prices rising by 4.5% and electricity costs surging by 24.6% [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator monitored by the Reserve Bank of Australia, decreased from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August, indicating that core inflation remains within the RBA's target range of 2% to 3% [1] Economic Context - The Australian Treasury Minister Chalmers stated that despite global economic uncertainties, the government has made "substantial and sustained progress" in controlling inflation [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia has implemented three interest rate cuts in February, May, and August of this year, with expectations for another potential cut as early as November [2]

Group 1 - The Tokyo stock market saw significant gains on August 12, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 2.15% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increasing by 1.39%, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment following U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations [1] - The Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy meeting suggested a potential interest rate hike by the end of the year, driven by inflation concerns, despite the current economic environment not supporting immediate rate increases [2][3] - Japan's inflation rate of 3.3% in June is higher than that of the U.S. and Eurozone, yet the Bank of Japan maintains a low interest rate of 0.5%, which is seen as a contributing factor to the persistent inflation above the central bank's target [2][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's leadership emphasizes the need to assess the impact of global trade policies on the domestic economy before making any decisions on interest rate hikes, indicating a cautious approach due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [3][4] - Recent increases in food prices in Japan are attributed to a significant rise in labor costs, which now account for over 50% of the price increase, contrasting with previous inflationary pressures that were primarily due to raw material costs [4] - The Bank of Japan's outlook report suggests that interest rates will not be raised during economic slowdowns, and any potential hikes will depend on clear signs of economic improvement [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut in 2023 following previous reductions in February and May [1] Economic Conditions - Since reaching a peak in May 2022, inflation in Australia has significantly decreased, with the underlying inflation rate for the second quarter at 2.7%, aligning with expectations. The overall inflation rate dropped to 2.1%, also meeting forecasts [1] - The RBA acknowledges ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, particularly due to trade policies that may negatively impact economic activity and consumer spending in Australia [2] - Domestic economic indicators show a recovery in private demand and real household income, but the labor market remains tight, with labor supply constraints affecting many businesses [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA believes that further gradual easing of the benchmark interest rate could help bring the underlying inflation rate closer to the midpoint of the target range of 2-3% [1][3] - There is uncertainty regarding the lagging effects of recent rate cuts and how businesses' pricing decisions and wage adjustments will influence overall demand and supply balance [3] - The RBA maintains a cautious outlook due to uncertainties in total demand and potential supply, while emphasizing its commitment to achieving price stability and full employment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the underlying inflation rate is expected to gradually align with the bank's price target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on achieving its price target through monitoring inflation trends [1] - The statement indicates a positive outlook for inflation stabilization in Japan [1] - The forecast period mentioned spans three years, suggesting a long-term approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that while consumers have not yet felt the pressure from tariffs, businesses may significantly increase prices in the coming months due to rising costs associated with tariffs [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - In May, the core inflation rate in the U.S. was below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that companies are managing to limit the extent to which tariff-related cost increases are passed on to consumers [1] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar fell, and S&P 500 futures increased, suggesting a market reaction to the inflation data [1] - Traders believe there is a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before September, influenced by a series of lower-than-expected inflation data [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Businesses - Economists anticipate that businesses will raise prices more significantly in the coming months, partly due to the challenges of protecting consumers from increased costs if tariffs are raised [1] - The article suggests that the most punitive tariffs may have been temporarily paused, or that companies have so far absorbed the additional costs without passing them on to consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation rate remains below the central bank's target of 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan anticipates that price pressures driven by rising costs, such as the increase in rice prices, will dissipate [1]