特约评论员陈迅 据新华社报道，8月12日，日本东京股市两大股指显著上涨。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨 2.15%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数上涨1.39%。有分析认为，投资者已经接受日本央行将继续加息 的现实，在美国对日关税谈判后，金融市场上投资者情绪开始恢复，日经指数在12日创出历史新高。 日本央行近日公布的7月货币政策会议意见摘要显示，一位委员暗示，鉴于美国关税的影响，日本央行 可能在今年年底再次加息。日本的加息预期再次在局部引发一些投资者的关注。不过笔者认为，目前的 经济大环境中，日本央行不存在立即加息的条件。 表面上看，日本的通胀水平(6月为3.3%)目前高于美国的2.6%和欧元区的2.0%。但目前美国的政策利率 为4.25%~4.5%，欧元区为2%，两相对比，日本利率(目前为0.5%)的确低得过分。这反过来刺激市场产 生一种根深蒂固的看法：超低利率导致的低日元又被视为"通胀率一直高于央行通胀目标2%"的主要原 因。因此，如果日本央行还宣扬其坚持2%的通胀目标，那么快速加息才是合理行为。然而截至目前， 日本央行不断解释其维持超低利率的原因是基于其重视的所谓"基础通胀率"依然低于2%，而这个缺乏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the underlying inflation rate is expected to gradually align with the bank's price target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on achieving its price target through monitoring inflation trends [1] - The statement indicates a positive outlook for inflation stabilization in Japan [1] - The forecast period mentioned spans three years, suggesting a long-term approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that while consumers have not yet felt the pressure from tariffs, businesses may significantly increase prices in the coming months due to rising costs associated with tariffs [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - In May, the core inflation rate in the U.S. was below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that companies are managing to limit the extent to which tariff-related cost increases are passed on to consumers [1] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar fell, and S&P 500 futures increased, suggesting a market reaction to the inflation data [1] - Traders believe there is a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before September, influenced by a series of lower-than-expected inflation data [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Businesses - Economists anticipate that businesses will raise prices more significantly in the coming months, partly due to the challenges of protecting consumers from increased costs if tariffs are raised [1] - The article suggests that the most punitive tariffs may have been temporarily paused, or that companies have so far absorbed the additional costs without passing them on to consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation rate remains below the central bank's target of 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan anticipates that price pressures driven by rising costs, such as the increase in rice prices, will dissipate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that the underlying inflation rate is gradually accelerating due to rising wages [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is observing a trend where wage increases are contributing to a rise in the core inflation rate [1] - This development indicates a potential shift in the economic landscape, as sustained wage growth may lead to higher consumer spending and inflationary pressures [1] - The comments from the Bank of Japan's Governor suggest a more optimistic outlook on inflation dynamics in Japan [1]