Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound on June 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.48% [1] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market saw gains, with a total trading volume of 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market's recent performance has shown a "two ups and one down" pattern over the last three trading days, indicating volatility but limited cumulative gains [2] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included beauty care (+4.04%), precious metals (+3.76%), and chemical pharmaceuticals (+3.38%), while sectors like automotive, steel, and liquor saw declines [1][4] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with bank stocks rising by 2.17%, reaching a nearly 10-year high, although still below the historical peak from June 2015 [6][5] Investment Insights - The current market sentiment indicates a low likelihood of a significant downturn, with expectations of continued oscillation unless there is a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - The market is becoming desensitized to tariff-related news, suggesting a potential for rebounds when the market approaches lower support levels [3] - According to research from Everbright Securities, the market is expected to favor defensive and undervalued sectors such as coal, public utilities, banking, and non-bank financials [3] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators are set to be released on June 9 (CPI and PPI) and June 16 (economic data), with the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 being a significant event for market observation [3] ETF Performance - ETFs related to gold, gaming, and banking showed leading performance, with gold stock ETFs rising by 3.38% and gaming ETFs by 3.07% [13] - The performance of certain thematic ETFs, such as those in the medical and agricultural sectors, lagged behind their respective sectors due to the absence of key stocks in their holdings [14] Strategic Focus Areas - The market is currently focusing on three main themes: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors underweighted by public funds, with recommendations to monitor industries like home goods, food processing, and financial services [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May, the A-share market rose slightly overall with a stable index but significant structural changes. The market style was biased towards micro-cap and medical sectors, with relatively average profit - making effects, decreased trading activity, and increased industry rotation speed [3][6]. - Due to the interweaving of internal and external factors, the index is expected to fluctuate in June. Although the most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that exports will maintain high growth in the short - term, with consumption remaining an important driving force for economic recovery [3][31]. - There are three certain main investment lines: domestic demand consumption, domestic substitution, and under - weighted sectors by funds. In June, the market may tend to a defensive style, and attention should be paid to the Internet and consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Three Market - Concerned Core Issues 3.1.1 Core Issue One: Stable Index Points but Significant Structural Changes - In May, the A - share market rose slightly overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly higher. The WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index and CSI 2000 had relatively high gains, while the STAR 50 Index declined [6]. - In terms of industries, environmental protection and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while electronics and social services led the losses. The market style was biased towards micro - cap and medical sectors. The micro - cap style outperformed in May, with the WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index rising 9.3%. The medical and healthcare sector rose 6.2%, outperforming other sectors [11][15]. - The market's profit - making effect was relatively average in May, with the net outflow of equity ETF funds exceeding 40 billion yuan. Market trading activity decreased, while industry rotation speed increased [20][26]. 3.1.2 Core Issue Two: Interweaving of Internal and External Factors, Expected Overall Index Fluctuation - The most severe short - term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Trump's previous trade frictions with many countries and his current short - term compromise are for a buffer for his anti - globalization policies [31][35]. - Trump's previous technology policies against China mainly restricted technology product exports and the development of Chinese enterprises. The new round of US technology policies may focus on restricting the AI industry [39][42]. - US stock enterprises may face greater profit pressure this time, and it is difficult to hedge through tax cuts. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that the economy in the second quarter will remain resilient. Exports may maintain high growth in the short - term, consumption will still be an important driving force for economic recovery, industrial production will remain high, and investment growth is expected to remain high [44][50]. 3.1.3 Core Issue Three: What are the Certain Main Lines? - Domestic demand consumption: It has been the focus of domestic policies, and future policies are expected to continue to catalyze. The consumer industry has relatively low overseas revenue and more resilient performance. Some consumer industries, such as household products, food processing, professional services, and leisure food, are worthy of attention [73]. - Domestic substitution: In 2018, the domestic substitution direction once achieved excess returns. Two investment clues are worthy of attention: industries with high dependence on US imports and strong domestic supply capabilities, and industries with high dependence on US imports but the potential to improve domestic supply capabilities [84][85]. - Under - weighted sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Offering Funds" may have a profound impact on fund industry allocation. Some under - weighted sectors by funds are worthy of attention in the medium - to - long - term, including banks, non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation, but short - term over - interpretation should be avoided [89]. 3.2 A - share Market: May Tend to a Defensive Style in June - Based on the combination of "economic reality" and "market sentiment", the market can be divided into four styles: balanced, pro - cyclical, defensive, and theme - growth and independent prosperity [98]. - In June, the economic reality or economic expectation is less likely to be "strong" in the short - term, and the market sentiment is expected to be weak. Therefore, the market style in June may tend to a defensive style [103][109]. - In a defensive style, attention should be paid to stable or high - dividend industries, such as public utilities, coal, and some sub - sectors [114]. - The five - dimensional industry comparison framework is used to comprehensively analyze and judge industry stock price performance. In May, under the assumption of a decline in market sentiment, the industry grouping effect was good, and the first - group industries achieved excess returns [119][123]. 3.3 Hong Kong Stock Market: Focus on Internet and Consumption Directions In May, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with a significant narrowing of the inflow of southbound funds but a relatively high trading proportion. Attention should be paid to the US restrictions on Chinese concept stocks listed in the US and investment in China. It is recommended to focus on the Internet, automobile, and service consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3].