Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Ruida Futures indicates that the short-term L2601 contract is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for the L2601 contract in the short term, with a resistance level around 7380 [2] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in PE production by 0.50% to 617,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72%, indicating stable supply conditions [1] Group 2 - The average operating rate of downstream PE products increased by 0.3%, with agricultural film operating rates rising by 2.9%, suggesting a seasonal demand increase [1] - Production enterprise inventory rose by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, while social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, indicating manageable total inventory pressure [1] - Recent international oil prices have seen a slight increase, providing some cost support, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected decrease in weekly inventories [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent surge in commodity prices, particularly in polysilicon and coking coal futures, has been notable, while plastic futures have shown a more complex trend with fluctuations [2] - On July 23, the plastic futures 2509 contract opened at 7,370 yuan/ton but experienced a decline, reaching a low of 7,285 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 0.12% [2] - The price movements in plastic futures are primarily driven by policy expectations, with limited impact from supply-side reforms [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of plastic has increased significantly due to the commissioning of multiple production facilities in the first half of the year, with a substantial year-on-year growth [3] - The average operating rate for polyethylene (PE) in the first half of the year was 82.73%, reflecting a 1.67% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Despite high production levels, domestic demand remains under pressure, with stable but unremarkable growth in downstream orders [4] Group 3: Price Influences - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate around crude oil prices, as oil-based production accounts for approximately 65% of plastic production capacity [6] - The production of polyethylene has seen a significant increase, with total production reaching 1,535.18 million tons in the first half of the year, marking a 14% growth [6] - The cost of production is influenced by the prices of raw materials like oil and coal, which have shown recent volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see a gradual recovery in production as maintenance schedules conclude, with a potential increase in supply [10] - The market anticipates a demand peak in August, which could support plastic prices if downstream operating rates improve [9] - Overall, the plastic market is transitioning towards a peak season, with limited downside potential for polyethylene prices if costs do not significantly decline [9]