Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future. The开工率 of plastics is at a neutral level, while the downstream开工率 of PE is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil is fluctuating within a narrow range, and there is an increase in supply. The peak season for agricultural film is not as strong as expected, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market, and there is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years. The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. There is new production capacity coming online, and the plastic开工率 has increased. The peak season for agricultural film is not as good as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,745 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,819 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,805 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position increased by 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,920 - 9,730 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,030 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Ruida Futures indicates that the short-term L2601 contract is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for the L2601 contract in the short term, with a resistance level around 7380 [2] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in PE production by 0.50% to 617,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72%, indicating stable supply conditions [1] Group 2 - The average operating rate of downstream PE products increased by 0.3%, with agricultural film operating rates rising by 2.9%, suggesting a seasonal demand increase [1] - Production enterprise inventory rose by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, while social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, indicating manageable total inventory pressure [1] - Recent international oil prices have seen a slight increase, providing some cost support, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected decrease in weekly inventories [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent surge in commodity prices, particularly in polysilicon and coking coal futures, has been notable, while plastic futures have shown a more complex trend with fluctuations [2] - On July 23, the plastic futures 2509 contract opened at 7,370 yuan/ton but experienced a decline, reaching a low of 7,285 yuan/ton, with a daily drop of 0.12% [2] - The price movements in plastic futures are primarily driven by policy expectations, with limited impact from supply-side reforms [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of plastic has increased significantly due to the commissioning of multiple production facilities in the first half of the year, with a substantial year-on-year growth [3] - The average operating rate for polyethylene (PE) in the first half of the year was 82.73%, reflecting a 1.67% increase compared to the previous year [7] - Despite high production levels, domestic demand remains under pressure, with stable but unremarkable growth in downstream orders [4] Group 3: Price Influences - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate around crude oil prices, as oil-based production accounts for approximately 65% of plastic production capacity [6] - The production of polyethylene has seen a significant increase, with total production reaching 1,535.18 million tons in the first half of the year, marking a 14% growth [6] - The cost of production is influenced by the prices of raw materials like oil and coal, which have shown recent volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see a gradual recovery in production as maintenance schedules conclude, with a potential increase in supply [10] - The market anticipates a demand peak in August, which could support plastic prices if downstream operating rates improve [9] - Overall, the plastic market is transitioning towards a peak season, with limited downside potential for polyethylene prices if costs do not significantly decline [9]