文 I 下海fallsea，作者 I 胡不知 2025年12月26日，脉脉上一条匿名爆料打破了跨境电商行业的平静："安克创新大规模裁员，比例接近 30%，已有员工完成离职手续签署"。消息一出，迅速在行业内引发震动。尽管安克创新官方第一时间 出面否认"情况不属实"，但市场的疑虑并未消散——就在爆料前两周，这家被视为"中国消费电子出海 标杆"的企业刚刚向港交所递交上市申请，试图通过"A+H"双平台融资破局；而其三季度财报早已显露 疲态：营收增速滑落至19.88%，为2023年一季度以来最低，扣非净利润更是六季度首次同比下滑 2.92%，经营活动现金流净额骤降至-8.65亿元，同比暴跌152.38%。 从2011年成立时的跨境小卖家，到2024年营收突破247亿元的行业巨头，安克创新用十余年时间书写了 中国消费电子出海的"造富神话"。其创始人阳萌提出的"浅海战略"，即避开巨头垄断的核心品类，聚焦 中小细分市场做饱和攻击，一度成为跨境电商行业的教科书式案例。但如今，裁员传闻、利润下滑、产 品召回、战略摇摆等一系列问题集中爆发，让这家明星企业陷入了前所未有的困境。 安克创新的困境绝非个例。2025年以来，跨境电商行业迎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market is closely monitoring the movements of new tea beverage giants, with Mixue Group's stock closing at HKD 413 per share on November 27, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 156.8 billion. This performance is attributed to the company's low-key testing of new business growth points, including a "breakfast plan" currently trialed in select cities [1][3]. Group 1: Breakfast Strategy - The company has initiated a low-price strategy targeting the breakfast consumption scene, with a recent survey on consumer preferences for breakfast items like soy milk and coffee. A "breakfast series" has been launched in certain areas, featuring products priced at RMB 5 [3]. - The breakfast product lineup includes four types of milk, such as "breakfast coconut milk," with no large-scale promotional plans currently in place. This is not the first attempt by the brand to expand into the morning consumption period, as previous tests included a "coffee + baking" combo sold at RMB 10 [3]. Group 2: Store Network and Financial Performance - The new business trials are supported by the company's extensive offline network and solid financial data, with a reported revenue of RMB 14.87 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 44.1% [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, while its coffee business, Luckin Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 stores, positioning itself as a significant player in the domestic coffee chain market [4]. Group 3: Multi-Category Expansion and Operational Efficiency - In addition to breakfast and coffee, the company is extending its product range through acquisitions, having invested approximately RMB 297 million to acquire a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu, thereby entering the fresh beer market [5]. - The company's profitability remains relatively strong within the industry, with a net profit margin of 18.27% for the first half of 2025, outperforming competitors like Tea Baidao and Bawang Tea Ji. The low-price breakfast initiative is seen as a strategy to leverage existing supply chain advantages and enhance single-store value [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.23 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.90 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% in revenue but a decrease of 7% in net profit, primarily due to declining domestic rental prices. However, overseas expansion and growth in light asset management are expected to drive continued revenue growth [1]. - The company maintains a leading position in equipment management, with a management scale of 215,000 high-altitude operation platforms, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The domestic market share for high-altitude operation platforms reached 34.4% [2]. - The company has optimized its financing structure, achieving a historical low financing cost with an average financing rate of 3.99%. Capital expenditures for 2024 reached RMB 7.10 billion, a significant increase of 249.8% year-on-year, aimed at optimizing the domestic fleet structure and expanding overseas equipment and new categories [3]. - The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of over 27 times, reaching RMB 390 million, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue. The overseas gross profit margin was 43.7%, significantly higher than the domestic margin [4]. - Due to the decline in rental prices affecting gross margins, the company has adjusted its operating lease business gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.95 billion, RMB 1.03 billion, and RMB 1.13 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.90 billion, down 7% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from operating leasing services, engineering technical services, and asset management services for 2024 was RMB 46.2 billion, RMB 37.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, +26.5%, and +113.0% [2]. Capital Expenditure and Financing - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was RMB 7.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.8%, aimed at enhancing the domestic fleet and expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The financing cost reached a historical low with an average financing rate of 3.99%, contributing to improved cash flow [3]. Overseas Expansion and New Products - The overseas business revenue grew over 27 times to RMB 390 million, representing 3.4% of total revenue, with plans to increase overseas asset management scale to approximately RMB 10 billion by 2027 [4]. - New product categories, such as industrial air conditioners, generated RMB 220 million in revenue, marking a growth of over 800% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, predicting net profits of RMB 0.95 billion and RMB 1.03 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 23% and 27% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at HKD 2.23, based on a 7x PE ratio for 2025, considering the need for liquidity improvement and the pressure on domestic leasing business margins [5].