[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 4 Mar 2026 昂跑 On Holdings AG (ONON US) 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 林泽宇 Caleb Lin yy.kou@htisec.com caleb.zy.lin@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 昂跑 FY2025Q4 点评：25 年收入及毛利率创新高，公司上调 26 年全年指引 On Running FY2025 Q4 Review: 2025 Revenue & Gross Margin Hit Record High; Company Raises Full-Year 2026 Guidance 事件：2026 年 3 月 3 日，昂跑 On Holding AG（简称"公司"）发布 2025 年年度业绩报告。 FY2025 全年，公司营业收入高增、净利润下降。2025 年全年，公司净销售额首次突破 30 亿瑞士法郎，报 ...

Core Insights - Anker Innovations is facing significant challenges, including rumors of layoffs, declining profits, and strategic misalignment, amidst a broader downturn in the cross-border e-commerce industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Challenges - Anker Innovations reportedly plans to lay off nearly 30% of its workforce, which has raised concerns in the industry, especially as the company recently submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The company's Q3 financial report showed a revenue growth slowdown to 19.88%, the lowest since Q1 2023, with a non-GAAP net profit decline of 2.92% year-on-year and a net cash flow from operating activities dropping to -8.65 billion yuan, a 152.38% year-on-year decrease [1] - Anker's market position is threatened by rising competition from local brands like Ugreen and Baseus, as well as pressure from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Apple and Samsung [2][3] Group 2: Market Environment - The global consumer electronics market is experiencing a slowdown, with growth rates projected between 2.8% and 6% for 2025, significantly lower than the double-digit growth seen during the pandemic [3] - Anker's core business, which relies heavily on the sales of charging devices and accessories, is directly impacted by the declining sales of smartphones and laptops, with global smartphone shipments expected to grow only 6.4% in 2024 [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for accessories is shifting, with OEMs capturing a larger market share in the charging accessories segment, now accounting for 41% of the market compared to Anker and other third-party brands' combined share of 38.6% [4] - Anker's market share in TWS earphones is only 7%, despite a 95% year-on-year increase in shipments, indicating a struggle to compete against leading brands [4] Group 4: Cost Pressures - Rising costs in advertising and compliance are squeezing Anker's profit margins, with advertising costs on Amazon increasing from $1.2 to $2.8 per click, and new tax policies in the U.S. adding significant financial burdens [5][6] - The logistics sector is also facing challenges, with increased customs clearance times and costs, further impacting operational efficiency [6] Group 5: Strategic Misalignment - Anker's shift from its original "shallow sea strategy" to a more diversified product line has led to resource wastage and a dilution of core competencies, resulting in a cycle of high investment with low returns [9][10] - The company's aggressive expansion into new categories has not aligned with its technical capabilities, leading to significant operational failures and the closure of multiple product teams [11][12] Group 6: Organizational Issues - Anker's rapid personnel expansion has resulted in a "high salary, low efficiency" structure, with employee numbers increasing by over 50% in a few years, but without corresponding productivity gains [14][15] - The organizational structure has become cumbersome, leading to slow decision-making and high communication costs, exacerbated by frequent changes in leadership [15][16] Group 7: Future Outlook - The company must refocus on its core competencies and streamline operations to regain market competitiveness, as evidenced by the successful launch of its Anker SOLIX Solarbank 3 Pro product [18] - Anker's experience highlights the need for cross-border e-commerce companies to adapt to a new phase of brand-focused, refined, and globalized strategies, moving away from reliance on low-cost models [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market is closely monitoring the movements of new tea beverage giants, with Mixue Group's stock closing at HKD 413 per share on November 27, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 156.8 billion. This performance is attributed to the company's low-key testing of new business growth points, including a "breakfast plan" currently trialed in select cities [1][3]. Group 1: Breakfast Strategy - The company has initiated a low-price strategy targeting the breakfast consumption scene, with a recent survey on consumer preferences for breakfast items like soy milk and coffee. A "breakfast series" has been launched in certain areas, featuring products priced at RMB 5 [3]. - The breakfast product lineup includes four types of milk, such as "breakfast coconut milk," with no large-scale promotional plans currently in place. This is not the first attempt by the brand to expand into the morning consumption period, as previous tests included a "coffee + baking" combo sold at RMB 10 [3]. Group 2: Store Network and Financial Performance - The new business trials are supported by the company's extensive offline network and solid financial data, with a reported revenue of RMB 14.87 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 44.1% [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, while its coffee business, Luckin Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 stores, positioning itself as a significant player in the domestic coffee chain market [4]. Group 3: Multi-Category Expansion and Operational Efficiency - In addition to breakfast and coffee, the company is extending its product range through acquisitions, having invested approximately RMB 297 million to acquire a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu, thereby entering the fresh beer market [5]. - The company's profitability remains relatively strong within the industry, with a net profit margin of 18.27% for the first half of 2025, outperforming competitors like Tea Baidao and Bawang Tea Ji. The low-price breakfast initiative is seen as a strategy to leverage existing supply chain advantages and enhance single-store value [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.23 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.90 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% in revenue but a decrease of 7% in net profit, primarily due to declining domestic rental prices. However, overseas expansion and growth in light asset management are expected to drive continued revenue growth [1]. - The company maintains a leading position in equipment management, with a management scale of 215,000 high-altitude operation platforms, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The domestic market share for high-altitude operation platforms reached 34.4% [2]. - The company has optimized its financing structure, achieving a historical low financing cost with an average financing rate of 3.99%. Capital expenditures for 2024 reached RMB 7.10 billion, a significant increase of 249.8% year-on-year, aimed at optimizing the domestic fleet structure and expanding overseas equipment and new categories [3]. - The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of over 27 times, reaching RMB 390 million, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue. The overseas gross profit margin was 43.7%, significantly higher than the domestic margin [4]. - Due to the decline in rental prices affecting gross margins, the company has adjusted its operating lease business gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.95 billion, RMB 1.03 billion, and RMB 1.13 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.90 billion, down 7% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from operating leasing services, engineering technical services, and asset management services for 2024 was RMB 46.2 billion, RMB 37.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, +26.5%, and +113.0% [2]. Capital Expenditure and Financing - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was RMB 7.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.8%, aimed at enhancing the domestic fleet and expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The financing cost reached a historical low with an average financing rate of 3.99%, contributing to improved cash flow [3]. Overseas Expansion and New Products - The overseas business revenue grew over 27 times to RMB 390 million, representing 3.4% of total revenue, with plans to increase overseas asset management scale to approximately RMB 10 billion by 2027 [4]. - New product categories, such as industrial air conditioners, generated RMB 220 million in revenue, marking a growth of over 800% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, predicting net profits of RMB 0.95 billion and RMB 1.03 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 23% and 27% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at HKD 2.23, based on a 7x PE ratio for 2025, considering the need for liquidity improvement and the pressure on domestic leasing business margins [5].