日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in polysilicon futures, which have experienced a price increase of 2.20% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon futures opened at 52,510.0 yuan/ton and reached a high of 53,795.0 yuan, with a low of 52,425.0 yuan during the trading session [1] - The current market trend for polysilicon is characterized by a strong upward movement, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - New Lake Futures highlights that the market is currently focused on fundamental factors, with a loose industry environment. Supply-side reductions are insufficient, while demand is decreasing, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation of silicon materials [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes a contrast between strong expectations and weak realities, with no further market news on capacity integration affecting market sentiment. However, effective cost support and strong spot prices suggest that buying on dips may offer better value [1] - Nanhua Futures points out that the volatility of polysilicon futures is significantly higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, indicating a higher overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and manage their positions and risk hedging effectively [1]

Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 53,710 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.94%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, and the open interest was 136,326 lots, a net decrease of 746 lots [4]. - In September, with production cuts and sales control, the monthly output is expected to be the same as that in August, ranging from 125,000 to 130,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 55 - 60GW. The weekly output of silicon wafers and solar cells remained flat. The downstream has a trend of active replenishment due to price - increase expectations, and the monthly supply - demand is basically balanced [4]. - Terminal demand is weak. After the "rush to install" in the first half of the year overdrafted the total demand, the monthly installed capacity has not recovered. Policy has a pulsed impact, and after September 4th, it entered a policy vacuum period again. The stable spot price provides rigid support for the lower limit of the futures price (the average spot price of re - feed material is 49,000 yuan/ton), and the selling pressure at high levels is obvious. The follow - up policy support needs to be observed [4]. Group 2: Market News - On September 11th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,690 lots, an increase of 320 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6GW, and the newly - added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly - added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report Information - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract continued to oscillate weakly. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40%. The trading volume was 411,979 lots, and the open interest was 137,072 lots, a net decrease of 5,908 lots [4] Outlook - The stable spot price provides rigid support for the lower limit of the futures price (the average spot price of re-feeding materials is 49,000 yuan/ton). The policy has a pulsed impact, and the market has recently entered a policy vacuum period. The futures market continued to reduce trading volume and open interest, and the number of warehouse receipts increased again. The selling pressure at high levels is obvious. After the second breakthrough failed, the futures price entered a high-level range oscillation. The market is waiting to see the follow-up policy support [4] Market News - On September 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,370 lots (22,110 tons), an increase of 500 lots (1,500 tons) from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to show high - level oscillations. The spot price provides strong support for the futures price, but the supply - demand balance in the industry requires more policy constraints and guidance. The overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. In the short term, the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and caution should be exercised regarding the policy exceeding expectations in the capital game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The closing price of the PS2509 contract of polysilicon was 52,260 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The trading volume was 580,607 lots, and the open interest was 137,977 lots, with a net increase of 2,460 lots [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The average spot price (re - feedstock) was stable at 47,500 yuan/ton. The silicon industry association expects the production in September to reach 145,000 tons. The futures and spot prices are supported by policies at the bottom and restricted by supply - demand pressure at the top, and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Market News - On August 19th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,930 lots, with a net increase of 110 lots compared to the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, and the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW. In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared to June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The polysilicon market has multiple contracts running strongly, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern, and the price is mainly in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The PS2509 contract of polysilicon closed at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a 3.23% increase, a trading volume of 420,201 lots, and an open interest of 138,396 lots, with a net increase of 10,809 lots [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the terminal demand has declined, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy has entered the implementation stage, cooling the market sentiment. The price will generally remain in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 6: Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30, 2025 [5] - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

Report Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Market Performance - Multiple contracts of polysilicon declined significantly. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,330 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.88%. The trading volume was 433,130 lots, and the open interest was 127,587 lots, a net increase of 20,838 lots [4] Future Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices. It has ended its previous adjustment and returned to range - bound trading. The price increase in the photovoltaic industry has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the pressure of a sharp decline in terminal demand has gradually spread upstream, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand relationship remains loose. Currently, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with 47,000 yuan as a short - term support level [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline. On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025. According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic components was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect of polysilicon is not the main driving logic currently. After the end of the rush installation, the domestic demand has dropped significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. The supply - demand balance may become a long - term drag. The current market is mainly driven by policy and funds, with the policy stage boosting market sentiment. However, regulatory adjustments aim to curb excessive speculation, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract broke through the previous high and fluctuated strongly. The PS2509 closed at 53,740 yuan/ton, up 5.15%. The trading volume was 1,123,795 lots, and the open interest was 10,067 lots, with a net decrease of 2,492 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The domestic demand will drop to around 45GW per month, while the supply will increase to 10 - 110,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 48 - 50GW. The supply - demand balance may be a long - term drag. The current market is driven by policy, funds, and fundamentals in order. The market is expected to be cautiously strong and fluctuate at high levels in the short term [4] 2. Market News - On July 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main growth markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.30%. The production is expected to increase slightly, while the demand pressure is gradually increasing, and the pessimistic expectation drives the market to weaken first [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 88,450 lots and an open interest of 78,183 lots, a net increase of 10,054 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The expectation of concentrated production cuts has failed. The weekly production is expected to enter a stage of slight month - on - month increase. The terminal photovoltaic demand is expected to fall to about 40GW, and the inventory has been increasing since April. There is no positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] 3.2 Market News - As of June 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90%. There was no bulk transaction of P - type polysilicon [5]

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The research team consists of Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main polysilicon contract rebounded from a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 33,585 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified after the "rush installation" ended, but terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to stay around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which may relieve the potential supply pressure in the far - month. If production cuts are implemented, it will support the current spot and futures prices. The weak reality is that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is ending, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not decreased rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and there are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period. The 07 contract is already at a discount to the price range of re - feed materials, reflecting the pessimistic expectations of funds. The resistance to further decline is increasing, but if the production cut does not increase, the fundamentals are difficult to provide continuous rebound momentum, and it will mainly operate weakly in the range [4] 4. Market News - As of June 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The transaction price range of n - type re - feed materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p - type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will hold the "2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference" in Leshan, Sichuan from June 24 - 26 [5]