人民网北京9月17日电 （记者花放）今年是中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年，以及中欧建交50周年。日前，由教育部欧洲联合研究 院、中国人民大学区域国别研究院、中国人民大学外国语学院文化外交团体、北京对话等机构联合主办的"战争、和平与和解"国际专家论坛在北京国际俱乐 部成功举办。 本次论坛汇聚中国及欧洲多国的外交官、政策专家、智库及媒体代表，与来自高校和科研机构的多位中方专家学者，以及十余位来自德国、法国、波 兰、比利时等国的外方专家学者，共同深入探讨在当前世界格局变迁下如何正确理解和平、促进和平，共筑和平繁荣的未来。 活动现场。主办方供图 中国政府欧洲事务特别代表卢沙野、中国人民大学党委副书记郑水泉、中国欧洲学会德国问题研究分会会长顾俊礼、中国德国史研究会会长景德祥、德 国汉斯·赛德尔基金会北京代表处首席代表周迪波出席开幕式并致辞，教育部欧洲联合研究院执行院长、中国人民大学区域国别研究院院长翟东升教授主 持。 卢沙野表示，中欧人民镌刻了壮烈的反法西斯历史和共同记忆，成为延续中欧世代情谊的重要纽带。他指出，新的动荡变革期，中欧应当共同践行全球 治理倡议，加强沟通、增进互信、深化合作，为维护世界和平 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shifting energy geopolitical landscape, highlighting India's significant reliance on Russian oil imports, which account for 37% of its total imports, and the implications of U.S. sanctions on this dynamic [1][2] Group 1: Energy Market Dynamics - Current rising oil prices are attributed to institutional friction costs, with the U.S. crude oil inventory dropping unexpectedly by 6.014 million barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 0.85 million barrels [1][3] - Russian oil continues to provide a price discount of approximately 5%, equating to $8-10 per barrel, which is crucial for India in managing inflation and energy costs [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. is considering doubling tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 50%, signaling a tougher stance against India's oil trade with Russia [2] - Despite U.S. pressure, India remains committed to purchasing Russian oil, framing it as a matter of energy security for developing countries [2][4] Group 3: Strategic Relationships - The relationship between Russia and India is evolving into a "demand-side alliance," which is reshaping energy geopolitical rules and accelerating the formation of a multipolar order [2][4] - The use of local currencies in energy transactions among Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing has reached 68%, challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar in oil trade [4] Group 4: Innovation in Energy Trade - Russia employs various strategies, such as a "shadow fleet" of around 300 older oil tankers and multi-layered transshipment methods, to maintain stable oil exports exceeding 5 million barrels per day [4] - India has developed a model of "processing and re-exporting" Russian oil, which has accounted for 21% of its petrochemical exports by 2024, showcasing compliance and innovation in energy trade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has resulted in only three countries—UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia—signing preliminary agreements with the US, leading to a postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy until August 1, indicating a failure of the trade strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Global Response - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the Trump administration aimed to reshape global trade rules using economic leverage, but only three countries have engaged, while major economies like China, EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, and Mexico have refused to cooperate [3][5]. - The three countries that signed agreements are highly dependent on exports to the US, indicating limited bargaining power, while significant economies are planning countermeasures [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on the US - Major financial figures, including the Federal Reserve and Warren Buffett, have criticized the tariff policy as detrimental to US consumers and manufacturing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 5.4% since the implementation of tariffs, and food prices increasing by 8.2% [5][7]. - The policy is seen as a tax on American households, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could result in a slowdown in consumption, reduced corporate profits, and a cooling job market [7][9]. Group 3: International Relations and Trust - Traditional allies, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's approach, with the EU planning to implement counter-tariffs and Japan highlighting violations of WTO rules [9][11]. - The US's actions have led to a significant erosion of its diplomatic influence, with countries reassessing the long-term value of cooperation with the US [11][14]. Group 4: Shift in Global Economic Dynamics - The tariffs have catalyzed a shift towards "de-dollarization" and reduced reliance on the US, with trade among RCEP countries increasing by 17% and trade between the US and EU declining by 9.3% [14][16]. - Historical precedents indicate that aggressive tariff policies have previously led to significant global economic downturns, suggesting that the current situation may have similarly severe consequences [16][18].