Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices are primarily driven by geopolitical events and monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding oil, gold, and copper markets [3][4][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced significant declines due to market speculation about a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions and an oversupply situation in 2024 [3]. - Despite a slight recovery following the implementation of U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to ongoing expectations of a peace deal [3][4]. Gold Market - Gold prices have shown volatility, initially declining due to profit-taking but later recovering as the New York Fed President signaled potential interest rate cuts, increasing market bets on a December rate reduction [3][4]. - The geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. stance on Ukraine continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, despite short-term fluctuations [3][5]. Copper Market - Copper prices have risen contrary to the overall trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts which lower financing costs for businesses and could boost industrial demand [4]. - Other base metals like aluminum and zinc have not followed copper's upward trend, indicating a divergence within the sector [4]. Investment Strategy - For long-term investment, the focus should be on the overarching trends of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and actual supply-demand dynamics rather than short-term market noise [5]. - The oil market may face continued volatility in the short term, but long-term supply-demand balance will be crucial for price direction [5]. - Gold remains a viable long-term investment due to its role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation, with short-term pullbacks presenting potential buying opportunities [5]. - Basic metals like copper should be monitored for industrial demand recovery, as this will influence their long-term price trends [5].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the commodity market, particularly oil and gold prices, are driven by various factors including supply concerns and economic indicators [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil has seen a three-day increase, currently around $61, driven by strong refined fuel prices, concerns over potential supply issues due to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, and technical buying as it tested the $60 mark without breaking [3] - Despite the recent price increase, concerns about oversupply remain, with upcoming OPEC and IEA reports expected to influence future price movements [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have increased but the growth rate has slowed, influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, which reduces gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, and weak employment data indicating economic softness [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could exceed $5,000 next year due to continued purchases by emerging market central banks, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [4] Base Metals - Copper prices have risen slightly, with LME copper at approximately $10,827 per ton, influenced by a 0.2% drop in the U.S. dollar index, which typically boosts dollar-denominated metal prices [5] - The performance of base metals is closely tied to the pace of global economic recovery, which is currently unstable, leading to expected volatility in metal prices [5] Investment Strategy - For oil, investors are advised to wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering positions, especially in light of the upcoming OPEC and IEA reports [5] - In gold, a gradual accumulation strategy is recommended, particularly if economic data continues to show weakness or geopolitical tensions arise [5] - For base metals, focus should be on those linked to renewable energy and manufacturing recovery, as clearer signals of global economic recovery are needed before making long-term investments [5]

Group 1 - The commodity market is experiencing a collective adjustment, with oil prices dropping after a four-day increase, and basic metals like copper and aluminum also declining [1][3] - WTI crude oil fell below $61, a decrease of 0.8%, primarily due to a strong dollar and concerns over supply surplus, as OPEC+ announced no production increase for the first quarter [3][4] - Copper prices dropped 2.4% at one point, closing down 1.8% at $10,663.5 per ton, as supply concerns eased following positive news from Chile's national copper company [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices fell by 1.7% to $3,934 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The recent decline in commodity prices is attributed to short-term factors such as the dollar's strength and changing supply expectations, rather than a long-term trend shift [5] - Recommendations for long-term investors include monitoring actual supply changes in oil, focusing on metals linked to "hard demand" like copper, and waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making moves in gold [5]