Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply is expected to be loose due to the promising harvest in the US and the expected expansion of planting area in Brazil, which may limit the rebound space of US soybean futures prices. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 remains strong, with the focus shifting to the M01 contract. Although the spot price of soybean meal has risen, the high inventory of oil mills and the low basis have led to a dull market sentiment. The market's concern about supply shortages may be over - estimated, and there is no fundamental support for a significant price increase [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may first decrease and then increase in the short term. The demand has slightly recovered, but the high temperature still restricts the purchase of pork. The short - term price is mainly determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed down 0.03% at 3023 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract dropped 55 yuan/ton to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was stable at 13.88 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.66% to 995 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week, with rain expected. The temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise. Although there has been high - temperature and extreme weather recently, the growth conditions of corn and soybeans are still good [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - In the 31st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 655.59 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased by 0.14% to 104.16 million tons [5]. - On August 5, the import cost of US soybeans decreased by 2 yuan to 4455 yuan, while that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 4 yuan to 3848 yuan, and that of Argentine soybeans increased by 17 yuan to 3691 yuan [5]. - On August 4, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased, with spot volume increasing and basis volume decreasing. The average trading price rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week high [5]. - The predicted US soybean production in 2025 is 4.425 billion bushels, and corn production is 16.323 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's latest forecast [6]. - As of July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 47.83401 million tons [6]. - Celeres expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177.2 million tons and export volume to be 110 million tons [6]. - As of August 4, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.91173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,790 tons [7]. - In late July, the oversupply in the live pig market due to accelerated slaughter and limited demand growth led to a decline in pig prices. In the fifth week of July 2025, the national live pig ex - factory price dropped to a six - week low [7]. - As of August 3, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the flowering rate was 85%, and the pod - setting rate was 58% [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [11][12][15][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose, which may limit the rebound of US soybean futures. The domestic DCE M09 remains strong, and the focus is on M01. The high inventory of oil mills, low basis, and flat market sentiment suggest that the current price increase may be due to expected supply shortages rather than fundamental factors [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may fluctuate, and the demand recovery is limited. The short - term price is determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited market changes; domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a decline, and rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly [4] - The inter - monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were strong due to concerns about future supply shortages [4] Group 3: Price and Spread Data Futures and Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts in different regions had different changes, and the basis also changed; for rapeseed meal, similar price and basis changes were observed [4] Inter - monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 59 spread was - 319 (down 5), 91 spread was - 13 (up 4), and 15 spread was 332 (up 1); for rapeseed meal, the 59 spread was - 300 (down 25), 91 spread was 311 (up 22), and 15 spread was - 11 (up 3) [4] Cross - variety Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 699 (down 16), 09 spread was 375 (down 34), and the oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.496 (up 0.001) [4] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 (up 14), between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 649 (down 18), and between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 19 (down 2) [4] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending June 5, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%, and the export inspection volume of old - crop soybeans was 547,000 tons; the USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease [5] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress was slow, and the recent soybean crushing volume decreased; Argentina's domestic soybean crushing growth might slow down [5] Domestic Market - As of June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%; soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons (up 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons (up 28.36% week - on - week and down 57% year - on - year) [6] - As of the week ending June 6, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, with an operating rate of 19.19%; rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons (down 30,000 tons week - on - week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons (down 1,000 tons week - on - week) [6] Group 5: Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear macro guidance, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainties; with market stabilization, macro disturbances decreased [7] - Domestic soybean meal futures were volatile with limited fundamental positives; US soybean futures might face downward pressure; rapeseed meal futures were expected to be volatile [7] - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were expected to be strongly supported due to supply concerns [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short positions in small amounts are recommended; for arbitrage, a long M11 - short M1 spread is recommended; for options, selling call options is recommended [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profits of soybeans from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates varied, with some showing increases and some showing decreases compared to the previous day [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the meal market showed a rebound today. After the rapid increase in the spot market trading volume of soybean meal yesterday, the short - position reduction on the futures market was significant, and the price has stabilized to some extent. However, the supply - side pressure still exists, and it is expected that the unilateral upward trend will face difficulties. Rapeseed meal also lacks obvious positive drivers, and its price difference is expected to fluctuate. [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures rebounded with no obvious market drivers. The soybean meal futures strengthened, with significant short - position reduction after good spot trading yesterday. Rapeseed meal also strengthened following soybean meal, with limited changes in its fundamentals. [4] - The monthly price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a phased rebound. The soybean meal's monthly price difference stabilized, while the rapeseed meal's was mainly affected by the unilateral price increase and showed wide - range fluctuations. [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Market**: The near - end support of the US soybean market is obvious. The old - crop exports decreased recently, but the April soybean crushing volume had a significant year - on - year increase. The new - crop sowing progress is fast, and last week's exports increased. [5] - **Brazilian Market**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent crushing volume has decreased. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit has weakened, and exports are expected to increase. [5] - **Argentine Market**: The domestic crushing growth may slow down due to oil - mill shutdowns, but soybean exports may increase. [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, rising inventories, and low spot trading. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists. [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to a slight market recovery, but the meal market's reaction is average. The impact of tariff adjustments on soybean imports is limited, and there are many uncertainties. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies due to the increase of new supply sources, but the long - term soybean meal is still supported by policies. [7] 3.4 Logic Analysis The meal futures rebounded today. After the significant increase in soybean meal spot trading yesterday, the futures market reduced positions significantly, indicating that the current price reflects the market's judgment to some extent. However, the supply - side pressure remains, and it is difficult for the price to rise unilaterally. Rapeseed meal also lacks positive drivers, and its price difference will likely fluctuate. [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Hold long positions. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the M11 - 1 spread and expect the MRM09 spread to widen. [9] - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles. [9]