研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 【粕类日报】市场扰动增加 盘面大幅上涨 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/2/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2989 | 3 9 | 天津 | 350 | 360 | -10 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2831 | 5 0 | | 240 | 260 | -20 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2936 | 4 6 | | 230 | 260 | -30 | | 日照 | | | | | 250 | 280 | -30 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2293 | 3 0 | 南通 | 248 | 24 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Meal Daily Report" [1] - Date: January 28, 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F3045719 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0015458 [2] - Contact information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal: Futures prices in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao showed increases; spot basis decreased by 10 in different regions [3] - For rapeseed meal: Futures prices in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi showed increases; spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 4, while in Nantong it decreased by 26 [3] Monthly Spread - For soybean meal: 15 - spread decreased by 3, 59 - spread decreased by 8, 91 - spread increased by 11 [3] - For rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 15, 59 - spread increased by 10, 91 - spread increased by 5 [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread increased slightly, bean - rapeseed 09 spread increased, and oil - meal ratio 01 also increased slightly [3] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 6, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased by 30, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased by 6 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market was strong due to dry weather after a short - term decline; South American market quotes rose slightly; the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets were also strong; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed; the near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was strong [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean: Carry - over stocks were raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels; quarterly grain stocks were also bearish, reaching 3.29 billion bushels, higher than the market estimate of 3.25 billion bushels; exports improved, but the supply - demand was still relatively loose [4] - South American market: Brazil's new crop was in good condition; exports were expected to increase, but it was subject to actual yield changes; Argentina's soybean exports and crushing increased [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The domestic spot supply tightened; the oil mill operating rate increased but the overall quantity decreased; the inventory decreased; the market transaction increased; the demand was good; as of January 23, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1021 million tons, the operating rate was 57.83%, the soybean inventory was 6.5899 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from last week and an increase of 45.8% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, a decrease of 5.13% from last week and an increase of 104.55% year - on - year [7] - Rapeseed meal: The demand weakened; the oil mill operation basically stopped; the rapeseed supply was low; the granular rapeseed meal inventory was still high; as of January 23, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was 60,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [7] Group 6: Logic Analysis - US soybean: High inventory pressure and high South American production, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand [8] - Brazil: Good weather, increased production forecast, and price pressure [8] - Argentina: Strong due to dry weather, but the driving effect may be limited [8] - Domestic market: Uncertainty in soybean supply, support in the spot market, limited upside space; in the long - term, the supply is loose and there is price pressure [8] - Rapeseed meal: High import price, expected pressure after increased supply, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen, but the South American weather may support the price [8] - Spread: The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and that of rapeseed meal was strong [8] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Limited upside space, suggest short - term observation and short - selling at high points [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [9] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazil showed different changes in different shipping months, with some decreases and some increases [10]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of meal products has improved, and the market has staged a rebound. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as import volume and cost support, while the rapeseed meal market is relatively stable. The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center is expected to move downward. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high inventory and weakening demand. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of future supply due to the lack of clear macro guidance [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean market showed a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded due to increased cost support, and the rapeseed meal market was relatively stable. The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop production increased slightly due to the increase in planting area. The South American old - crop market was in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase in production of 15.39 million tons and an increase in crushing volume of 8.21 million tons. The international soybean meal supply pressure was obvious, with an expected increase in crushing volume of 21.536 million tons in major producing areas [3] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand was weakening, and the supply pressure still existed. As of September 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, the operating rate was 67.76%, the soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, the rapeseed crushing volume was 49,000 tons, and the operating rate was 13.06% [6] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed, but there was no clear macro - guidance. The market was worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, due to China's long - term demand for US soybeans, the price was unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7] Logical Analysis - The market focus will shift back to the fundamentals. The overall soybean production has not changed much, and the support for US soybeans is expected to decline. The Brazilian soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - monthly spreads are expected to be strong [8] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see - **Arbitrage**: M11 - 1 long spread - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [9] Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from November 2025 to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of futures markets in managing risks and facilitating cross-border trade, particularly in the context of changing global trade dynamics [1][4] - Xiamen Guomao Petrochemical successfully negotiated a PTA order by utilizing futures contracts to secure pricing and protect profit margins amid market uncertainties [1][2] - Xiamen Jianfa leveraged futures tools for risk management in their procurement of Australian rapeseed meal, demonstrating the effectiveness of basis trading in volatile markets [1][2] Group 2 - The article discusses how the use of options by Wucai Zhongda Chemical Group provided a "double insurance" against shipping disruptions and price fluctuations in their Ukrainian rapeseed meal imports [3] - The active trading of futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange enhances risk management capabilities for companies engaged in bulk commodity trading [3][4] - The acceptance of "Chinese prices" by foreign enterprises is driven by China's significant role in global commodity consumption and trade, as well as the ability for these enterprises to hedge risks directly in the Chinese futures market [3][4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of futures markets in facilitating cross-border trade and managing risks associated with price fluctuations [1][5] - Companies like Xiamen Guotai Petrochemical and Xiamen Jianfa are utilizing futures contracts to lock in prices and mitigate risks in their trading operations [1][2] - The integration of hedging strategies, such as basis trading and options, allows companies to navigate uncertainties in international markets effectively [2][3][4] Group 2 - The use of basis trading separates price determination from contract signing, enabling buyers to lower costs while sellers can lock in profits, thus avoiding the risks of betting on market trends [2][5] - The article provides examples of companies successfully employing futures tools, such as Xiamen Jianfa's use of futures contracts for rapeseed meal and Mucai Zhongda's use of options to hedge against shipping risks [3][4] - The acceptance of "Chinese prices" by foreign enterprises is driven by China's significant role in global commodity consumption and trade, as well as the ability for these enterprises to participate directly in Chinese futures markets [5]

Report Title - "Supply Bullish Factors Increase, Futures Prices Rise Significantly" [2] Report Date - August 13, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports; the rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations, and the far - month market is more favorable. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [4][9] Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a significant upward trend today. The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, driving the futures up. The domestic soybean meal futures also rose, with limited market changes but obvious cost - side push. The rapeseed meal futures had larger fluctuations, and multiple contracts hit the daily limit. The main driver was the potential impact on the subsequent supply of Canadian rapeseed [4] Fundamental Analysis US Soybeans - The old - crop balance sheet is bullish, with exports almost completed and crush adjusted upward, leading to a decrease in ending stocks. For the new - crop, although the yield per acre increased, the significant reduction in planted area tightened the supply. The new - crop cumulative exports are slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio may not show significant bullishness at the current price level [5] South American Soybeans - The old - crop supply in South America is generally loose. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. The overall ending stocks or exports may increase. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] International Soybean Meal - The international soybean meal supply pressure is obvious. The annual soybean crush volume in major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increased提货量. As of August 8, the actual soybean crush volume was 2.1775 million tons, the operating rate was 61.21%, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons (up 8.38% week - on - week), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons (down 3.66% week - on - week). The domestic rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a decline in the oil - mill operating rate, but the overall supply is still sufficient. As of August 8, the rapeseed crush volume in coastal areas was 63,200 tons, the operating rate was 16.84%, the rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons (down 22,800 tons week - on - week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons (up 5,000 tons week - on - week) [7] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have ended, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty. Although the macro - disturbances are decreasing, China's high demand for US soybeans in the long - term means that prices are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term [8] Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures are bullish due to cost - side increases, but the follow - up depends on domestic imports. The rapeseed meal market has significant fluctuations. After the preliminary anti - dumping ruling, the final ruling is likely to impose tariffs, which is favorable for the rapeseed meal market. The soybean meal inter - monthly spread may continue to decline due to spot pressure, while the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may strengthen, especially for the far - month spread. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread may narrow in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy on dips - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread - Options: Wait and see [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory operation. The short - term upward momentum of soybean meal is limited, and the deep - decline space after the correction is also restricted. Rapeseed meal is likely to follow the soybean meal to oscillate, and its ability to have an independent market is relatively weak. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to have some downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal shows a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [8]. - The trading strategy is to expect the market to be mainly in an oscillatory state for single - side trading, suggest expanding the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see attitude for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures showed a slight oscillatory trend with limited market changes. After the previous positive factors were fully reflected, there was some downward pressure recently, and the market gradually stabilized after the decline. The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline, but the decline narrowed as the absolute price was relatively low and further negative factors were limited. Rapeseed meal also had a limited decline, and the market lacked new themes, continuing to be affected by soybean meal, with subsequent uncertainties remaining. The monthly spread of domestic soybean meal futures also showed a slight oscillation, and the downward space of the monthly spread was limited after the decline of the single - side price narrowed, but the spot pressure still existed. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend, mainly because the previous decline was relatively large and the further downward space was limited. However, since the near - term pressure on rapeseed meal was still obvious, the rebound space was expected to be limited [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish, and the upward space is significantly limited after the recent rebound. The new soybean market is mainly characterized by ample supply and limited support. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%, up from 68% in the previous week. As of the week ending July 24, the export inspection volume of old US soybean crops was 409,700 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded. - In the previous week, Brazilian farmers accelerated their selling progress, but the overall progress was still relatively slow, and there was still some pressure expected in the future. The Brazilian soybean crushing situation has generally improved recently. The soybean crushing volume in May announced by abiove continued to increase month - on - month. The demand for soybean meal and soybean oil was generally good, and the crushing profit improved overall under the background of the rapid increase in soybean oil prices recently. However, crushing had limited effect on alleviating the supply pressure, and the subsequent demand improvement space was also relatively limited. Due to China's large volume of soybean purchases, Brazil is expected to still have room for export growth, and the market pressure is still relatively obvious. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future, mainly because the subsequent exports may decrease under the influence of tariffs. However, the current domestic crushing profit in Argentina is average, so the improvement space is still relatively limited. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America. Especially when the subsequent crushing in Argentina decreases, soybean exports may become more obvious, and Brazil has a large output, so the pressure remains obvious when the subsequent domestic crushing decreases [5]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market continued to be in a relatively loose state. The oil refinery operating rate remained at a high level, the market supply was sufficient, the提货量 (pick - up volume) increased accordingly, and the inventory gradually accumulated. The overall spot market trading performance was average. As of July 25, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2389 million tons, the operating rate was 62.94%, the soybean inventory was 6.4559 million tons, an increase of 33,500 tons or 0.52% from the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 10,700 tons or 0.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, an increase of 44,700 tons or 4.48% from the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 302,800 tons or 22.5%. - Recently, the domestic demand for rapeseed meal has continued to show a gradual weakening trend, and the oil refinery operating rate has decreased. However, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal remained at a high level, so the overall supply pressure still existed. Although there was uncertainty in the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand also weakened, and there was still some near - term pressure. Therefore, rapeseed meal is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory operation. As of the week ending July 25, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 56,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 14.93%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 137,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not provided much clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market continues to be worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. From the perspective of recent international trade changes, there are still many overall uncertainties. However, as the market gradually stabilizes, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. Since China still has a high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, it is not easy to see a sharp decline in the short term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3028, 2744, and 2983 respectively, with changes of - 13, - 7, and - 7. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao were - 90, - 140, - 140, and - 130 respectively, with changes of 0, 10, 20, and 20 compared to the previous day. - For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2379, 2372, and 2660 respectively, with changes of - 14, 2, and 0. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi were - 140, - 140, and - 150 respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, and - 20 compared to the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - For soybean meal, the 59 - spread was - 239 (unchanged from the previous day), the 91 - spread was - 45 (an increase of 6 from the previous day), and the 15 - spread was 284 (a decrease of 6 from the previous day). - For rapeseed meal, the 59 - spread was - 288 (an increase of 2 from the previous day), the 91 - spread was 281 (an increase of 14 from the previous day), and the 15 - spread was 7 (a decrease of 16 from the previous day) [4]. Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for contract 01 was 649 (an increase of 1 from the previous day), and for contract 09 was 323 (a decrease of 7 from the previous day). The oil - to - meal ratio for contract 01 was 2.704 (an increase of 0.048 from the previous day) [4]. Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 604 (an increase of 27 from the previous day), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 31 (a decrease of 34 from the previous day), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 573 (an increase of 3 from the previous day) [4]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the soybean crushing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) with different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT price, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the corresponding crushing profits (both on - the - spot and in the futures market) and their changes compared to the previous day [10].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) dated July 22, 2025, issued by the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - Today, the US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited changes. The domestic bean meal futures continued to rise rapidly, while the rapeseed meal's rise slowed down. The domestic bean meal spot market remained relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand weakened [2][5] - For bean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with changes of 17, 8, and 17. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with changes of 22, 11, and 9 [2] - The spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety futures spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal all showed certain changes. For example, the 59 spread of bean meal was - 326 today, down 9 from yesterday, and the 91 spread of rapeseed meal was 299 today, down 13 from yesterday [2] Price Spreads - The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal was 635 today, down 6 from yesterday; the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 29 today, up 3 from yesterday; the spread between bean meal and sunflower meal was 536 today, down 3 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The US soybean old - crop export inspection volume for the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - reported soybean crushing volume at 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [3] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow overall. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved recently, with the May soybean crushing volume continuing to rise month - on - month. The demand for bean meal and soybean oil is good, and the crushing profit has improved due to the rapid increase in soybean oil prices. However, crushing has limited impact on relieving supply pressure, and the demand improvement space is also limited. Brazil may still have room for export growth [3] - Argentina's domestic soybean crushing volume may improve slightly in the future as exports may decrease due to tariffs, but the current domestic crushing profit is average, so the improvement space is limited [3] Domestic Market - The domestic bean meal spot market remains loose. As of July 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, the operation rate was 64.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, down 152,500 tons (2.32%) from last week but up 310,400 tons (5.08%) year - on - year. The bean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, up 111,100 tons (12.66%) from last week but down 262,200 tons (20.8%) year - on - year [5] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has been gradually weakening. The operation rate of oil mills has decreased, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high. As of the week ending July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, the operation rate this week was 15.72%, the rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons from last week [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market lacks clear macro - guidance. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [6] Group 5: Logical Analysis - The domestic bean meal futures market continues to be strong, but the upward driving force is limited as the bullish factors from the US soybeans and cost side have decreased. The international market also lacks substantial bullish factors, and the US soybean's upward space is limited. The bean meal may face a certain downward pressure [7] - The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little recently. The market focus is on the import of Australian rapeseed, which has great uncertainty in terms of import volume and price. The overall supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average, so the rapeseed meal market also faces pressure [7] - The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal may face downward pressure, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position [8] - For options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit. For example, the disk pressing profit of Argentine soybeans for October shipment is - 13.19 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is showing a strong upward trend, but the continuous upward space for US soybeans is limited, so the upward space for soybean meal is also expected to be limited. Given the large subsequent export pressure from Brazil and the good weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas, the rebound space for the futures market is also expected to be limited [7]. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently. Due to concerns about future supply and the current price already reflecting potential supply shortages, it is expected that rapeseed meal will not show a significantly strong trend. The narrowing space for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited, and after this round of price increases, rapeseed meal may still face some pressure, with the price difference expected to widen overall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend. Although there was no clear driving factor, the previous sharp decline had fully reflected the negative factors. After a marginal improvement in demand, the domestic soybean meal futures market also showed a significant increase, mainly driven by cost factors. The domestic rapeseed meal futures market also rose significantly, influenced by the increase in soybean meal prices and concerns about future supply shortages due to Canada's tariff increase on Chinese steel [4]. - The monthly price difference of domestic soybean meal futures showed a strengthening trend, while rapeseed meal remained strongly supported. Overall, the market is still worried about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, but the current prices have already fully reflected these concerns, making further price increases difficult [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet is generally negative. Although US soybean exports were lowered, soybean crushing was increased, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. As of the week ending July 13, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. As of the week ending July 10, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 147,000 tons. The soybean crushing data for June in the US was good, with the NOPA's soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5]. - **South America**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been relatively slow, and the overall selling progress is at a historically low level for this period. Recently, the selling progress has continued to slow down, and price pressure is starting to show. The recent soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased. Although the soybean crushing volume in April, as reported by abiove, was relatively good, the crushing profit remained relatively low. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit in Brazil has weakened. In this context, Brazil may further increase its soybean exports [5]. - **Argentina**: The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future. Although the previous crushing volume decreased due to capacity constraints, the prices of terminal products have begun to stabilize, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market for soybean meal remains relatively loose. The operating rate of oil mills has continued to increase, leading to sufficient market supply and increased提货量. Inventory has gradually accumulated, but the overall spot market transactions have been average, and the market's acceptance of current prices is also average. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. The soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, an increase of 210,900 tons from the previous week, or 3.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 661,400 tons, or 11.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons from the previous week, or 7.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 333,100 tons, or 27.32% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has recently shown a gradual weakening trend. Although the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, the overall supply remains sufficient. With the decline in demand and the high level of granular rapeseed meal, there is still supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, demand has also weakened, and there is still some pressure in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate [6]. Macro Analysis - The Sino-US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro guidance, the market continues to be concerned about the uncertainty of future supply. Although there are still many uncertainties in international trade, as the market gradually stabilizes, macro disturbances are decreasing. However, since China's long-term demand for US soybeans remains high, the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, especially in the absence of macro guidance [7]. Trading Strategies - **Single Position**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a reverse spread on RM91 [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8].