Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the Alashan Phase II project progressing smoothly [2][4]. - Despite a decline in core product prices and gross margins, the company has seen growth in production and sales volumes, which partially offsets the impact of price drops [5][6]. - The Alashan project is expected to significantly enhance the company's long-term growth potential, with Phase I already operational and Phase II construction underway [7][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales gross margin was 31.8%, a decline of 12.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.2%, down 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [6]. Product Segmentation - The company's main product segments include soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, and urea, with respective revenues of 3.55 billion yuan, 760 million yuan, and 1.48 billion yuan in H1 2025 [5][12]. - The soda ash segment saw a revenue decline of 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 20.7 percentage points [5][12]. - The sodium bicarbonate segment experienced a revenue drop of 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.9%, down 11.8 percentage points [5][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 14.10 billion yuan, and 15.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][28]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.61 billion yuan, 1.97 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for the same years [10][28]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the soda ash industry, benefiting from low-cost advantages and the completion of the Alashan Phase I project [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but the second quarter showed signs of recovery with improved performance metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743 million yuan, down 38.57% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.31% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.26%, with a net profit of 403 million yuan, down 36.95% year-on-year but up 18.96% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Production and Sales - In H1 2025, the company produced a total of 5.1571 million tons of various products, with significant increases in production of soda ash (3.3946 million tons, up 67.52% year-on-year) and bicarbonate (739,700 tons, up 7.15% year-on-year) [2]. - The increase in production was primarily due to the full capacity utilization of the first phase of the Alashan natural soda project, which has a capacity of 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of bicarbonate [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Margins - The average prices for key products in Q2 2025 were 1,446 yuan/ton for heavy soda, 1,315 yuan/ton for light soda, 1,316 yuan/ton for bicarbonate, and 1,852 yuan/ton for urea, reflecting year-on-year declines of 33.52%, 35.40%, 27.23%, and 17.34% respectively [2]. - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.52%, down 9.73 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.63 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 19.20%, down 7.08 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.04 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 4: Future Growth Prospects - The second phase of the Alashan natural soda project, with a planned capacity of 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of bicarbonate, is expected to start production by the end of 2025 [3]. - The company is also planning to invest in a carbon recovery project with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year of bicarbonate, which is expected to enhance its cost advantages and align with national carbon reduction policies [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.916 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743 million, down 38.57% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [2][6] - Despite facing adverse factors such as a decline in product market prices, the company managed to increase its production and sales volume year-on-year, which helped mitigate the negative impact on revenue and net profit [4] - The Alashan natural soda project is progressing well, with the second phase expected to be completed and put into trial operation by the end of 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's overall gross margin and net margin were 31.79% and 18.21%, respectively, down 12.57 and 7.93 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows that the soda ash segment generated 4.313 billion, the urea segment 1.484 billion, and other products 0.92 billion, with respective year-on-year changes of -10.94%, -12.85%, and +1.38% [3] - The company’s operating expenses decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 11.53% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.48 billion, 2.006 billion, and 2.33 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.6, 10.7, and 9.3 [5][6] - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 but grow significantly in 2026 and 2027, with growth rates of -2.3%, 21.0%, and 3.7% for the respective years [5] Project Developments - The Alashan natural soda project phase two is planned to produce 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of sodium bicarbonate annually, with construction having started in December 2023 [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **soda ash industry** in China, focusing on production capacity, supply-demand dynamics, and pricing trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity and Supply - The production capacity of soda ash has been steadily increasing over the past five years, with significant contributions from various production methods, including **soda ash from natural sources** and **soda ash from soda-lime** [1][5]. - The **Henan region** is highlighted as a major production base, with new projects contributing to supply growth [2][3]. - The total production capacity in the industry is reported to be around **525 million tons**, with a projected supply surplus expected to continue into **2025** [7][19][21]. Demand Dynamics - Soda ash is primarily used in industries such as **power generation, coking, and steel**, which are experiencing varying levels of demand [2][11]. - The demand for soda ash is influenced by environmental regulations, particularly in the steel and coking sectors, which have increased the need for soda ash in **desulfurization processes** [11][12]. Pricing Trends - The average monthly supply of soda ash in **2023** is around **180,000 tons**, with expectations for growth in **2024** and **2025** [7][19]. - Pricing trends indicate a downward trajectory, with prices fluctuating between **1800 to 2500 RMB** per ton, influenced by production costs and market dynamics [10][14][18][20]. - The correlation between raw material prices and soda ash prices is strong, with a correlation coefficient of **0.9244** [9]. Export Dynamics - Exports of soda ash are significant, with approximately **60,000 tons** exported annually, contributing to domestic price stability [21][22]. - Major export destinations include **South Korea, Brazil, and India**, with a growing demand from these markets [24][25][26]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face challenges due to overcapacity and fluctuating demand, with potential price rebounds dependent on upstream production adjustments and market conditions [20][30][31][32]. - The relationship between soda ash and soda-lime production is critical, as the latter's capacity expansion could impact the former's market dynamics [27][28][29]. Additional Insights - The conference notes emphasize the importance of monitoring international market trends and raw material costs, as these factors significantly influence domestic pricing and competitiveness [26][30]. - The potential for further production capacity increases in the soda ash sector is acknowledged, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [19][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the soda ash industry, highlighting production, demand, pricing, export dynamics, and future outlook.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand may decline, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed. The futures market has already reflected this. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract after a rebound. - For glass, the supply may decrease in the future, and the demand is weak. After a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short the glass main contract. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 237 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - Soda ash main contract position: 1377454 lots, down 61412 lots; glass main contract position: 1444272 lots, down 117140 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 196915 lots, up 47021 lots; glass top 20 net position: - 206160 lots, up 5691 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2062 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 60 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash basis: 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; glass basis: 114 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. [2] Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1235 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - East China light soda ash: 1340 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1285 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - Shahe glass sheets: 1068 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number: 225, up 2. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 162.43 tons, up 2.2 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6766.2 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 10.7 ten - thousand weight boxes. [2] Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 17835.84 ten - thousand square meters, up 4839.38 ten - thousand square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 15647.85 ten - thousand square meters, up 2587.58 ten - thousand square meters. [2] Industry News - Wang Yi met with new US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since last October. - Premier Li Qiang signed a State Council order to promulgate the Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data, which will come into force on August 1, 2025. - The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called on enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition mainly in the form of "price war". [2]