证券代码：601065 证券简称：江盐集团 公告编号：2025-037 江西省盐业集团股份有限公司 2025 年上半年主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要产品 | | 产量（万吨） | | 销量（万吨） | 营业收入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 报告期 | 同期 | 报告期 | 同期 | （万元） | | 食盐 | 29.66 | 28.36 | 29.10 | 28.10 | 19,988.21 | | 工业盐 | 132.18 | 114.01 | 128.27 | 111.36 | 36,086.52 | | 氯化钙 | 11.19 | 7.54 | 6.06 | 5.72 | 3,482.28 | | 纯碱 | 39.04 | 37.69 | 36.02 | 34.68 | 46,279.42 | | 小苏打 | 2.81 | 2.60 | 2.87 | 2.36 | 3,583.0 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic soda ash production primarily utilizes the following methods: - **Soda-Lime Process** (49%) - **Ammonia-Soda Process** (34%) - **Natural Soda Process** (16%) - The natural soda process is favored for its cost and environmental advantages, but it is limited by resource availability [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Pressures**: The ammonia-soda and soda-lime processes have production costs around **1,300 RMB/ton**, exceeding the market price of **1,200 RMB/ton**, leading to losses for many companies [1][5] - **Capacity and Supply**: By 2024, soda ash capacity is expected to reach **40.8 million tons**, with new natural soda mines exacerbating supply surplus. The industry may remain sluggish due to real estate sector drag, necessitating capacity clearance to improve supply-demand balance [1][6] - **Demand Shifts**: The demand for flat glass is declining, projected to be **32%** in 2024, while demand for photovoltaic glass is steadily increasing. The correlation between real estate completions and soda ash consumption is weak, with emerging sectors like photovoltaics partially offsetting real estate downturn impacts [1][9][10] - **Policy Impact**: Policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other agencies are expected to drive the exit of outdated capacities, improving industry supply-demand dynamics [1][12] Potential Investment Opportunities - **Current Profitability**: The soda ash industry is experiencing historically low profitability, with most companies incurring losses. However, companies like **Shandong Haihua**, **Boyang Chemical**, and **Zhongyan Chemical** show investment potential due to their operational resilience [1][14] - **Natural Soda Projects**: The new natural soda project by Zhongyan Chemical is expected to increase domestic natural soda capacity to **28%** by the end of 2025, potentially rising to **43%** post-project completion [1][13] - **Boyang Chemical's Growth**: The company focuses on natural gas operations, with the Alashan Phase II project expected to add **1.68 million tons** of soda ash and **240,000 tons** of sodium bicarbonate annually, contributing significantly to future growth [2][15] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The soda ash industry is characterized by global pricing, with historical peaks reaching **3,700 RMB/ton**. The current low prices and the inability to import economically from regions like the US and Turkey due to shipping and tariffs create a unique market situation [7][8] - **Future Demand from Photovoltaics**: Although there is short-term overcapacity in photovoltaic glass, long-term demand could increase by **5.5 million tons** of soda ash if overseas photovoltaic installations continue to rise [11] - **Dividend and Financial Health**: Boyang Chemical shows strong dividend intentions with payout ratios of **79%** and **61.6%** for 2023 and 2024, respectively, alongside a declining debt ratio and significant future cash flow potential [16] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the soda ash industry, along with potential investment opportunities and challenges.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the salt industry, focusing on "salt + energy storage," with significant undervaluation of its salt cavern storage value [3] - The company has a stable profit model with low debt and high cash flow, benefiting from the decline in coal prices [3] - The company is expected to achieve substantial performance growth through its salt cavern storage projects and integrated development of salt, alkali, and calcium [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a regional leader in salt mining, with a focus on low debt and stable profitability [5][9] - It is controlled by the Jiangsu Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [9] Salt Chemical Business - The company develops a circular economy involving salt, alkali, and calcium, with stable pricing for salt products [3][30] - In 2024, the company expects to sell 774,000 tons of salt products, 76,000 tons of alkali products, and 32,000 tons of calcium products [3][30] - The company has a unique underground cyclic soda production technology that enhances resource utilization and environmental safety [3][39] Salt Cavern Utilization - The company is entering the production phase of its gas storage projects, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [3][49] - The company plans to build two major gas storage projects with a total capacity of 81 billion cubic meters by 2030 [3][67] - The Zhangxing gas storage project is expected to generate significant profits, with a projected net profit increase of 4.1 billion yuan by 2030 [3][76] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a net profit of around 7 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, benefiting from stable pricing and reduced costs [25] - The company's financial health is improving, with a decrease in debt ratios and stable cash flow [25][19] Market Demand - The demand for natural gas storage is increasing, particularly in Jiangsu Province, which has the highest natural gas consumption in China [56] - The company’s gas storage facilities are strategically located to meet the seasonal demand fluctuations in the region [67][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the Alashan Phase II project progressing smoothly [2][4]. - Despite a decline in core product prices and gross margins, the company has seen growth in production and sales volumes, which partially offsets the impact of price drops [5][6]. - The Alashan project is expected to significantly enhance the company's long-term growth potential, with Phase I already operational and Phase II construction underway [7][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales gross margin was 31.8%, a decline of 12.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.2%, down 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [6]. Product Segmentation - The company's main product segments include soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, and urea, with respective revenues of 3.55 billion yuan, 760 million yuan, and 1.48 billion yuan in H1 2025 [5][12]. - The soda ash segment saw a revenue decline of 10% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, down 20.7 percentage points [5][12]. - The sodium bicarbonate segment experienced a revenue drop of 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.9%, down 11.8 percentage points [5][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 14.10 billion yuan, and 15.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][28]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.61 billion yuan, 1.97 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for the same years [10][28]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the soda ash industry, benefiting from low-cost advantages and the completion of the Alashan Phase I project [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with significant profits from natural soda ash production highlighting its cost advantages in a struggling industry [7] - The company reported a total revenue of 5.916 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit of 743 million yuan, down 38.6% year-on-year [7] - The production of various products increased, with a total output of 5.1571 million tons in H1 2025, driven by the full capacity of its subsidiary's natural soda ash project [7] - The company is set to expand its natural soda ash production with a second phase project expected to start construction in December 2023 and be completed by the end of 2025 [7] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 12.325 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.530 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.5% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.52%, showing a recovery from previous lows [7] - The company’s earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 [6]

Summary of Soda Ash Industry Research and Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash industry in China is experiencing steady growth in apparent consumption, with significant changes in downstream demand structure. The share of flat glass is declining while demand for photovoltaic glass is increasing, and long-tail demand is becoming increasingly important. Attention should be paid to how demand fluctuations in various sectors impact soda ash consumption [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Processes**: The main production methods for soda ash include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The ammonia-soda process is large-scale but highly polluting, while the dual-soda process is environmentally friendly but requires high investment. The natural soda process has a cost advantage but is limited by resource scarcity [1][4] - **Cost Analysis**: As of the end of 2024, the total cost for typical ammonia-soda and dual-soda plants is approximately 1,300 RMB per ton, while the total cost for natural soda plants is around 700 RMB. However, due to transportation issues, the ex-factory price in the Alashan region is significantly discounted by about 200 RMB [5] - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The soda ash market is expected to be oversupplied in the coming years, with new capacities mainly from the Alashan Phase II project (2.8 million tons) and the China Salt Tongliao natural soda project (5 million tons) expected to be completed by the second half of 2028. Without effective industry clearing, the industry's prosperity may remain at a low level for an extended period [6] - **Impact of Real Estate Sector**: The decline in real estate completions negatively affects soda ash demand, but the growth in emerging fields like photovoltaic glass can partially offset this. In the long term, global photovoltaic installations are expected to significantly boost demand for photovoltaic glass, thereby increasing soda ash usage [9][11] - **Historical Cycles**: The soda ash industry has undergone several cycles influenced by macroeconomic factors, real estate policies, energy prices, and supply-side reforms. The recent commissioning of the Alashan Phase I project has intensified supply pressure, leading to a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and price declines [7] Additional Important Insights - **Policy Impacts**: Energy-saving and carbon reduction policies, along with the renovation of old facilities, may accelerate the clearing of the soda ash industry and address internal competition issues. Relevant policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Emergency Management could push older capacities to exit the market [3][12] - **Market Pricing Dynamics**: Despite a leftward shift in the overall cost curve of the soda ash industry, price changes may not be significant as pricing is still anchored to the cash flow costs or total costs of synthetic processes [14] - **Current Market Conditions**: The current price of soda ash in East China has recently rebounded but had previously dropped below 1,200 RMB per ton. Many leading companies are currently reporting losses, indicating a challenging market environment [15] - **Key Players**: Major companies in the soda ash industry include Haohua, Boyuan Chemical, China Salt, Sanyou, Xutian, Hebang, Huachang, and Su Salt. Boyuan Chemical is highlighted as a leader with significant advantages in cost and growth potential [16][17] - **Investment and Dividend Potential**: Boyuan Chemical plans to invest in the Alashan Phase II project and a sodium bicarbonate project, with strong cash flow supporting its dividend potential. The company maintains resilience in revenue and profit despite industry challenges [18][19] - **Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected industry clearing, which may delay the anticipated price recovery, and safety and environmental production risks that could have long-lasting impacts on all chemical companies [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.916 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743 million, down 38.57% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [2][6] - Despite facing adverse factors such as a decline in product market prices, the company managed to increase its production and sales volume year-on-year, which helped mitigate the negative impact on revenue and net profit [4] - The Alashan natural soda project is progressing well, with the second phase expected to be completed and put into trial operation by the end of 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's overall gross margin and net margin were 31.79% and 18.21%, respectively, down 12.57 and 7.93 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows that the soda ash segment generated 4.313 billion, the urea segment 1.484 billion, and other products 0.92 billion, with respective year-on-year changes of -10.94%, -12.85%, and +1.38% [3] - The company’s operating expenses decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 11.53% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.48 billion, 2.006 billion, and 2.33 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.6, 10.7, and 9.3 [5][6] - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2025 but grow significantly in 2026 and 2027, with growth rates of -2.3%, 21.0%, and 3.7% for the respective years [5] Project Developments - The Alashan natural soda project phase two is planned to produce 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of sodium bicarbonate annually, with construction having started in December 2023 [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Inner Mongolia Boyuan Holdings Group Co., Ltd. has pledged a total of 23 million shares of Boyuan Chemical, accounting for 0.62% of the total share capital [1] - The details of the share pledge include two transactions with China CITIC Bank, where 9.9 million shares and 13.1 million shares were pledged, respectively, both starting from August 8, 2025 [1] - As of the announcement date, Inner Mongolia Boyuan Holdings has pledged a total of 1.122 billion shares, which represents 100% of its total holdings [1] Group 2 - Boyuan Chemical's financial data for the first half of 2025 shows a main revenue of 5.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.57% year-on-year to 743 million yuan, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses also saw a similar decline [3] - The company's debt ratio stands at 49.6%, with investment income of 237 million yuan and financial expenses of 160 million yuan, while the gross profit margin is reported at 31.79% [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic natural soda ash market, showcasing strong scarcity and growth potential, particularly with the ongoing construction of the Alashan Phase II project [6][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown significant quarter-on-quarter growth, indicating resilience in its operations [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's robust cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents increasing by 121.10% year-on-year, reflecting strong operational performance [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.916 billion yuan, down 16.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 743 million yuan, down 38.57% year-on-year [6]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 3.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.31% year-on-year but an increase of 6.26% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The production volumes for key products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: soda ash at 3.3946 million tons, sodium bicarbonate at 739,700 tons, and urea at 882,300 tons, representing year-on-year increases of 24.83%, 10.70%, and 5.01% respectively [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.402 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 1.373 billion yuan, reflecting a PE ratio of 15.71 [7][8]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to rebound in 2026 and 2027, with projections of 11.411 billion yuan and 12.922 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profit growth to 1.380 billion yuan and 1.629 billion yuan [8][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that Boyuan Chemical's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the commissioning of the Alashan Phase II natural soda project and the 1.2 million tons of sodium bicarbonate project, suggesting further growth potential for the company while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Boyuan Chemical's Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders showed a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, supported by the widening price gap of urea and the cost advantage of natural soda [1] - The estimated operating cost for the company's soda ash in 2024 is projected to be 741 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.31% [1] Group 2: Project Developments - The Alashan natural soda Phase II project plans to produce 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of sodium bicarbonate, with trial production expected by the end of 2025 [1] - Silver Root Chemical plans to utilize carbon dioxide and alkaline mother liquor generated during the Alashan natural soda project, in conjunction with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, to construct a comprehensive carbon recovery and utilization project for 1.2 million tons of sodium bicarbonate, with a total investment of 3.56 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Market Position - The company is viewed positively as a long-term leader in the natural soda industry, expected to stand out amid intense competition and trends against overcapacity [1]