港股通 证券研究报告 信义玻璃 (868 HK) 海外及汽车玻璃引领突围 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 玻璃 | 华泰研究 | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 | 玻璃 | 目标价(港币): | 12.91 | | 公司公布 25 年业绩：25 年实现收入 208.3 亿元，同比-6.7%；实现归母净 | | 方晏荷 | 研究员 | | 利 27.3 亿元，同比-19.0%，但好于我们此前预期的 22.1 亿元，主要得益于 | | SAC No. S0570517080007 SFC No. BPW811 | fangyanhe@htsc.com +(86) 755 2266 0892 | | 汽车玻璃业务稳健增长及有效的成本费用管控。我们认为当前浮法玻璃行业 | | | | | 仍处于周期底部，后续需等待供给端持续收缩带来的供需再平衡。公司作为 | | 黄颖 | 研究员 | | 浮法玻璃龙头，具备显著的规模和成本优势，有望在行业复苏时展现较大盈 | | SAC No. S057052 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 信义玻璃 (868 HK) 海外及汽车玻璃引领突围 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 玻璃 | 华泰研究 | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 | 玻璃 | 目标价(港币): | 12.91 | | 公司公布 25 年业绩：25 年实现收入 208.3 亿元，同比-6.7%；实现归母净 | | 方晏荷 | 研究员 | | 利 27.3 亿元，同比-19.0%，但好于我们此前预期的 22.1 亿元，主要得益于 | | SAC No. S0570517080007 SFC No. BPW811 | fangyanhe@htsc.com +(86) 755 2266 0892 | | 汽车玻璃业务稳健增长及有效的成本费用管控。我们认为当前浮法玻璃行业 | | | | | 仍处于周期底部，后续需等待供给端持续收缩带来的供需再平衡。公司作为 | | 黄颖 | 研究员 | | 浮法玻璃龙头，具备显著的规模和成本优势，有望在行业复苏时展现较大盈 | | SAC No. S057052 ...

水井坊作为帝亚吉欧持股约63%的白酒上市公司，日前预告2025年归母净利润预计同比下降71%，营业收入同比下降42%。水井坊将原因归结为行业周期与 公司主动调整的叠加效应，产品结构和渠道优化仍在持续进行中。 面对业绩压力，关于帝亚吉欧可能出售水井坊的传言再度甚嚣尘上。在近日的业绩说明会上，管理层再次回应了这一市场猜测。帝亚吉欧方面表示，从未提 及要出售水井坊资产，但如果有人针对不属于核心战略的资产提出"无法拒绝"的报价，其也会有兴趣参与其中。这番表态被业内解读为"并非主动求售，但 也不排除放手可能"。 雪上加霜的是，中国农历春节的时间错位也给销售数据带来扰动。今年春节在2月中旬，备货时间较晚，导致部分销售计入下一财季，进一步放大了上半年 的数据落差。 对于这家正在经历管理层交接的百年巨头而言，大中华区的"失速"绝非短期问题。从苏格兰威士忌消费降温，到白酒行业深度调整，帝亚吉欧在中国市场面 临的或是一场系统性挑战。 日前，全球烈酒巨头帝亚吉欧交出了一份惨淡的成绩单。截至2025年12月31日的2026上半财年，这家拥有尊尼获加威士忌、水井坊白酒等品牌的行业龙头， 在大中华区的销售额同比暴跌42.3%，成为拖累亚 ...

报告期内，受宏观经济环境及行业周期影响，行业仪器设备需求整体收缩，市场竞争进一步加剧，导致 公司新签订单盈利能力下滑，整体毛利率同比下降，加上项目退货等因素影响，亦对当期利润造成一定 冲减。 智通财经APP讯，碧兴物联(688671.SH)披露2025年度业绩快报，2025年度实现营业收入3.23亿元，同比 下降1.80%;归属于母公司所有者的净利润亏损8415.04万元，上年同期亏损3854.61万元。 ...

2025年2月到2026年2月，A股市场迎来了一轮强劲的上涨行情。 上证指数从3200点左右起步，一路攀升至4000点上方，累计涨幅达到25.58%。 深证成指的 表现更加抢眼，从11000点附近涨到15000点以上，涨幅高达38.84%。 创业板指更是从2200点飙升至3500点，涨幅接近59%。 科创50指数也不甘示弱，涨幅超过64%。 全市场5484只股票中，有4788只实现了上涨，上涨比例超过87%。 其中869只股票价格翻倍，更有100多只股票涨幅在2倍到20倍之间。 投资者们沉浸在赚钱的喜悦中，社交媒体上到处是晒收益的截图，券商营业部里开户排队的人群络绎不绝。 就在这一片欢腾的市场氛围中，却有700多只股票逆市下跌。 其中跌幅最大的10只股票，股价几乎全部腰斩，跌幅最小的也有42%。 这些股票所属行业各不 相同，有通信服务、环保设备、生物制品、零售、建筑装饰、食品加工、文化传媒、光伏设备、光学光电子等多个领域。 华星创业的股价从年内高点15.88元一路下跌到6.18元，区间跌幅达到63%。 这家通信服务行业的公司，曾经在2023年初达到20.95元的高点，如今股价已经跌回到三年前的水平。 公司20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company TTI is expected to release its next financial report in early 2026, with a focus on maintaining its growth momentum in performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - The latest financial report for Q3 2025 showed revenue of $153 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $25 million, raising concerns about the ability to sustain growth in future reports [2]. Business Progress - The desalination pilot project with EOG Resources in the Permian Basin has achieved a 92% water recovery rate, which is crucial for transitioning the technology from pilot to large-scale commercial application, potentially serving as a medium to long-term growth catalyst [3]. Industry Policy and Environment - The company's revenue is highly dependent on unconventional oil and gas activities in North America. Significant fluctuations in oil prices or reductions in operators' completion budgets could directly impact orders. Monitoring U.S. energy policies, drilling activity data, and oil price trends is essential for understanding business impacts [4]. Institutional Perspectives - As of December 22, 2025, five participating institutions have given a "buy" recommendation, but there is a need to assess whether valuation levels align with performance growth. Any underperformance in future reports or business developments may lead to rating adjustments [5]. Future Development - While Oasis TDS has environmental and resource potential, large-scale implementation requires customer investment decisions and regulatory approvals, with limited short-term profit contributions. The stock often experiences low liquidity, which may amplify price volatility [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant decline in the company's net profit, projecting a drop of 66.31% to 71.82% for 2025, with non-recurring net profit expected to fall by 79.36% to 85.43% [2][4]. Core Insights - Despite the negative earnings forecast, the stock price surged, closing at a 7.95% increase on January 29, suggesting a market reaction that diverges from fundamental performance [5][6]. - The company's financial performance has been on a downward trend since reaching historical peaks in 2022, with a net profit margin expected to plummet from 21.4% in 2022 to just 1.0% in 2025 [7][8]. - The stock has been in a prolonged downtrend for three years, but recent technical analysis suggests a potential reversal as a long-term bottom structure has formed [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has experienced continuous revenue and net profit declines since 2022, with a cumulative loss of 50 million in the first three quarters of 2025 despite a single-quarter profit in Q3 [7][10]. - The gross margin for the company's main product, coking coal, has deteriorated significantly, with losses exceeding 240 RMB per ton produced [15][16]. Industry Context - The company's performance is closely tied to the steel industry, which has seen reduced demand and profitability, impacting coking coal procurement and pricing [20][23]. - The average market price for coking coal is expected to decline by 18% in 2025 compared to 2024, while the price of raw materials has not decreased at the same rate, leading to a significant compression of profit margins [20][21]. - The steel industry's production targets are set for reduction, and the current economic environment, particularly in real estate, is not expected to improve significantly in the short term [25].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025 to be between -130 million and -87 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses projected to be between -186 million and -125 million yuan [1] - The performance of the company is significantly impacted by the cyclical nature and price fluctuations in the protective glove industry, as well as the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of industry cycles over individual company performance in the Chinese liquor market, particularly during periods of economic downturns, where even strong companies face significant declines due to systemic pressures [7][11][35]. Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - The period from 2013 to 2021 was characterized as a "golden era" for the liquor industry, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai increasing by 1297%, Shanxi Fenjiu by 1090%, and Wuliangye by 860% [13][15]. - In contrast, the period from 2022 to 2026 is described as a "deep adjustment period," where major brands have seen significant declines, with Luzhou Laojiao down 49%, Wuliangye down 46%, and Kweichow Moutai down 26% [20][22]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on industry cycles when selecting stocks, prioritizing companies with strong demand resilience during downturns, such as Kweichow Moutai, or those with low valuations, like Gujing Gongjiu B [29][30]. - The article warns against relying on company-specific factors (alpha) to counteract industry-wide trends (beta), as strong financials or management integrity may not protect against systemic downturns [31][32]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - The article highlights that past star stocks, such as Yanghe and Shui Jing Fang, which performed well during the boom, have suffered even greater declines in the current downturn, illustrating that past performance does not guarantee future resilience [33][34]. - The cyclical nature of the industry is underscored, with the assertion that understanding the primary conflict between industry cycles and individual company performance is crucial for avoiding investment pitfalls [35].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant downgrade in the investment outlook for the company, with a projected net profit drop of 78.7% to 84.0% for 2025 compared to 2024 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company, Kosi Co., Ltd. (科思股份), is experiencing a severe decline in profitability, with a forecasted net profit of only 0.9 to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, marking a drastic fall from previous years [4][12]. - The gross margin has plummeted from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.6% in 2025, indicating a loss of pricing power and profitability [9][10]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.2 billion yuan, but this was accompanied by a significant drop in cash flow, which decreased by nearly 79% year-on-year [12]. - Kosi Co., Ltd. has historically benefited from a strong position in the sunscreen market, holding over 20% of the global market share, but is now facing challenges due to reduced demand from major clients [15][16]. - The company's reliance on international clients for over 80% of its revenue has made it vulnerable to global market fluctuations, particularly as clients begin to reduce inventory [16][21]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing expansion efforts, including projects in Malaysia, despite the current downturn in performance [25][28]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company has issued a shocking profit warning, projecting a net profit of only 0.9 to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to previous years [4]. - The gross margin has decreased significantly, dropping from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.6% in 2025 [9][10]. Market Position and Challenges - Kosi Co., Ltd. has been a leading player in the sunscreen market, but the slowdown in demand from major clients has exposed vulnerabilities in its business model [15][16]. - The company’s gross margin for its core product, cosmetic active ingredients, fell from 53.1% in 2023 to 35.3% in 2025 [17]. Strategic Moves - Despite the downturn, the company is pursuing expansion projects, including a significant production facility in Malaysia, indicating a commitment to long-term growth [25][28]. - The report notes that the actual controller of the company has reduced their holdings, which may signal a lack of confidence in the near-term outlook [22][23].