Group 1 - The six major state-owned banks in China announced that starting from January 1, 2026, they will pay interest on the balances of real-name digital RMB wallets at the same rate as current deposit rates, which is currently set at 0.05% [1] - This move makes China the first economy to offer interest on central bank digital currency [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was relatively dull as it was the last trading week of 2025, and the market's reaction to economic data was not obvious due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. However, the three major domestic PMI indices in December returned to the expansion range, indicating signs of economic recovery [6]. - In November, the external demand of the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The National Fiscal Conference stated that fiscal policy will continue to exert force, and the scale of fiscal expenditure may further increase next year, leading to an increase in the supply pressure of interest rate bonds. Additionally, the current main allocation force for long-term bonds is facing challenges in its ability to absorb long-duration assets, intensifying the adjustment pressure in the long-end market. Under the fragile sentiment in the bond market, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Recently, the weakening of the US dollar index has supported commodities. The National Fiscal Work Conference held at the end of the week regarding next year's fiscal work, especially the arrangements for trade-ins, also supported commodity trends from the demand side. The overall macro atmosphere in the market is positive, and the commodity index is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend [6]. - The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is highly divided. Most officials support further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. The Fed may restart balance sheet expansion, boosting market liquidity expectations. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. The Bank of Japan tends to be hawkish, and the euro is expected to strengthen due to the widening interest rate differential, while the yen continues to fluctuate under the influence of carry trades and fiscal concerns [10]. - In December, the official manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, indicating that the manufacturing industry has expanded again. The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to the expansion range. The improvement in the construction industry's prosperity, driven by factors such as relatively high temperatures in some southern provinces and enterprises seizing the construction progress before the holidays, is expected to continue [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures fell by 0.78%. A-share major indices generally declined, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was dull, but the economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.09%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.39%. The economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted, and the supply pressure of interest rate bonds is increasing. The long-end market faces adjustment pressure, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. The recommendation is to conduct range trading [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell by 6.87%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell by 1.77%. The weakening of the US dollar and fiscal policies support commodity trends. The recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.25%. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, the euro is expected to strengthen, and the yen continues to fluctuate. The recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: In 2026, the "national subsidy" policy for equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins was launched, with the first batch of 6.25 billion yuan in funds allocated. The VAT rate for selling housing purchased for less than two years was lowered from 5% to 3%. The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecological system will be launched on January 1, 2026, and digital RMB will start to accrue interest. The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented, with 935 commodities subject to lower import provisional tax rates [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation declines. The US President met with the Ukrainian President, but no major announcements were made. The United Nations Transferable Goods Documents Convention was passed, filling a legal gap in land trade. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes were hawkish, suggesting future rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was also 50.1, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing industry [17]. - **US**: The month-on-month rate of the existing home sales contract signing index in November was 3.3%, higher than expected. The month-on-month rate of the FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4%, and the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted housing price index was 1.3% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic data will be released next week, including the US December ISM manufacturing PMI, France and Germany's December CPI month - on - month preliminary values, Germany's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone's December CPI annual rate preliminary value, the US December ADP employment number, etc. [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 30, 2025, and the overall trend in December 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On December 29, 2025, the performance of various futures contracts was mixed. Some contracts showed upward trends, while others declined. The overall market was volatile [14][37]. Stock Index Futures - On December 29, 2025, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all faced downward pressure. The short - term downward pressure on IF2603 and IC2603 increased, while that on IH2603 and IM2603 increased slightly [14][15]. - It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will likely show a relatively strong and volatile trend. On December 30, 2025, they will likely show a relatively weak and volatile trend [19][20]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AU2602 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [37]. - Silver: On December 29, 2025, the new main contract AG2604 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing slightly. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [41]. - Platinum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PT2606 opened with a gap up and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [48]. - Palladium: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PD2606 opened with a large gap down and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [51]. Base Metal Futures - Copper: On December 29, 2025, the main contract CU2602 opened slightly lower and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [59][61]. - Aluminum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AL2602 opened slightly lower and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [66]. - Alumina: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AO2605 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong and widely volatile in December 2025, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [71]. - Tin: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SN2602 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [74]. Other Futures - Lithium Carbonate: On December 29, 2025, the main contract LC2605 opened slightly lower and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [79]. - Rebar: On December 29, 2025, the main contract RB2605 opened flat and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [81]. - Iron Ore: On December 29, 2025, the main contract I2605 opened flat and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and widely volatile on December 30, 2025 [87]. - Coking Coal: On December 29, 2025, the main contract JM2605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile and relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [92]. - Glass: On December 29, 2025, the main contract FG605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [97]. - Soda Ash: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SA605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [102]. Macro - news and Market Information - Domestic news includes military exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army, tariff adjustments, financial data of state - owned enterprises, regulatory policies of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the implementation of the digital RMB interest - bearing plan [7][8]. - International news includes statements by US President Trump, the meeting between Trump and the Ukrainian President, the US government's investigation of large enterprises, and the increase in pending home sales in the US [8][9]. - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline on "Black Monday." The increase in trading margins by the CME Group led to a decline in international metal futures prices [9][10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to strengthen the management service system and related financial infrastructure for digital RMB, with a new framework set to be implemented on January 1, 2026 [2] - From January 1, 2026, digital RMB wallet balances will earn interest similar to demand deposits, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [2] - By the end of November 2025, digital RMB has processed 3.48 billion transactions with a total transaction amount of 16.7 trillion yuan, showing positive results in various sectors including retail, education, and cross-border payments [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the plan signifies the evolution of digital RMB from cash-type 1.0 to deposit currency-type 2.0, supported by central bank technology and regulatory oversight [3] - The future digital RMB will function as a modern digital payment and circulation method within the financial system, possessing attributes of commercial bank liabilities and compatible with distributed ledger technology [3] - Following the announcement, related digital currency concept stocks in the capital market saw significant activity, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Digital Certification and Yuyin Co [3]

Digital Currency - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to strengthen the management and service system for digital RMB, with a new framework set to launch on January 1, 2026 [1] - As of November 2025, digital RMB has processed 3.48 billion transactions totaling 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets opened through the digital RMB app [1] - The rapid development of digital RMB is expected to create opportunities for the banking IT system, payment ecosystem, and related infrastructure industries [1] Passive Components - A major passive component manufacturer plans to adjust prices for certain products starting January 1, 2026, with increases in resistors and inductors [2] - Research indicates that domestic passive component manufacturers are likely to implement two price hikes in Q4, driven by increased demand from AI applications [2] - The overall price of passive components is currently low, and with rising raw material costs, manufacturers are expected to initiate a new round of price increases [2] Robotics - The opening of offline stores for humanoid robots is expected to validate real application scenarios and accelerate product iteration and standardization [2] - TrendForce predicts that 2026 will be a pivotal year for humanoid robots, with global shipments expected to increase over sevenfold, surpassing 50,000 units [2] Nuclear Fusion - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui, focusing on promoting collaboration and innovation in the nuclear fusion industry [4] - The industry is entering an upward capital expenditure cycle, with Hefei establishing a leading cluster of fusion devices and a complete industrial chain [3] - The importance of controlled nuclear fusion as a "ultimate energy" source is increasing, with a focus on engineering feasibility verification and equipment procurement [3] Logistics - A joint plan has been issued by several government agencies to develop 101 national standards for modern logistics from 2025 to 2027, aimed at enhancing logistics infrastructure [5] - The modern logistics industry has achieved significant growth, with a projected social logistics total of 380 trillion yuan and logistics revenue exceeding 14 trillion yuan by 2025 [5] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, leveraging AI, IoT, and big data for enhanced efficiency [5] Reusable Rockets - The private rocket company "New Space Aerospace" has initiated key technology tests for the recovery and reuse of the Chitu-1 rocket, marking progress in low-cost, reliable space technology [6] - Successful recovery technology could reduce launch costs from tens of millions to millions of dollars, with multiple companies aiming for reusable rocket launches by 2026 [6] Hydrogen Energy - A significant breakthrough has been achieved in a 30MW pure hydrogen gas turbine energy storage demonstration project, marking a step towards practical hydrogen energy applications [7] - The project aims to provide a viable solution for large-scale renewable energy storage, addressing issues of volatility and energy wastage [7] Macro and Industry News - Starting January 1, 2024, digital RMB wallet balances will earn interest, making China the first economy to offer interest on central bank digital currency [8] - The market regulatory authority has outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, focusing on antitrust enforcement and addressing "involution" competition [8] - Public fund assets have surpassed 37 trillion yuan, reaching a new high [8]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to enhance the management service system and related financial infrastructure for digital RMB, set to officially launch on January 1, 2026 [1] - Digital RMB wallets will start earning interest based on current deposit rates, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" after ten years of research and trials [1] - China will become the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency wallet balances [1] Summary by Categories Digital Currency Development - The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will be implemented starting January 1, 2026 [1] - As of the end of November 2025, digital RMB has processed a total of 3.48 billion transactions, with a cumulative transaction amount of 16.7 trillion yuan [1] Economic Impact - The introduction of interest on digital RMB wallet balances is expected to have significant implications for the financial landscape in China, potentially influencing consumer behavior and savings patterns [1]