Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan provincial government has issued a new policy for 2026 to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, allocating 6 billion yuan to enhance economic stability and promote green transformation in industries [1]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The 2026 policy includes five main areas: promoting large-scale equipment updates, improving consumer goods replacement, enhancing recycling networks, leveraging standards for improvement, and strengthening policy implementation [2]. - A total of 30 specific measures have been detailed to optimize the "two new" policies, focusing on expanding the coverage of equipment updates, supporting green and low-carbon products, and enhancing fund usage supervision [2]. Group 2: Equipment Upgrade Subsidies - The support ratio for production line upgrade projects has increased to 10% of equipment (including software) investment, while energy-saving and safety projects can receive up to 15% of fixed asset (including software) investment [2]. - The maximum support amount for a single project has been raised to 20 million yuan, providing stronger backing for equipment updates and technological transformations [2]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Replacement - The scope of consumer goods replacement has been expanded to include eight new areas, with a focus on automobiles, home appliances, digital, and smart products [3]. - The subsidy standards have been optimized, with adjustments made to the support for old elevator replacements and electric truck updates [3]. - The number of supported home appliance categories has been reduced from 18 to 6, while the digital product categories have increased from 3 to 4 [3]. Group 4: Automotive Replacement Subsidies - The automotive replacement subsidies will now be based on a "proportion + limit" method, linking subsidies to the price of new vehicles [4]. - For scrapping and updating, subsidies will be 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum amounts set at 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [5]. - The policy emphasizes a green premium for scrapping updates, with higher subsidies for older, more polluting vehicles, promoting environmental protection and circular economy development [5].

上海市发展和改革委员会、上海市财政局发布关于上海市贯彻实施2026年大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知。其中提到，支持数码和智能产品购新。个人消费者购买手机、平板、智能手表手环、 智能眼镜等4类产品（单件销售价格不超过6000元），按产品销售价格的15%给予补贴，每位消费者每 类产品可补贴1件，每件补贴不超过500元。根据上述各项政策执行情况，适时研究开展本市智能家居产 品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴以及其他消费品以旧换新政策框架内的产品补贴，优先支持能效、水 效、环保水平高的产品，具体补贴品类、补贴标准由市商务委会同市发展改革委、市财政局等相关部门 研究并履行国家要求的相关程序后施行。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

【#江苏2026以旧换新补贴政策发布#】江苏省发展改革委和江苏省财政厅联合发布《关于2026年实施大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，明确2026年将持续推进大规模设备更新、优化实施消费 品以旧换新。其中包括，支持汽车报废更新、支持汽车置换更新、支持家电以旧换新、支持数码和智能 产品购新等。补贴详情↓ （江苏新闻） 转自：紫金山新闻 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the "old for new" consumer goods policy in 2026 has led to a rapid market response, expanding the supply of quality goods and services, thereby enhancing market vitality [1] Group 1: Market Response - In Tonghua City, Jilin Province, a new round of subsidies launched on New Year's Day has significantly boosted the local consumer market [2] - A manager from a home appliance store in Tonghua reported a 50% increase in sales compared to January 1, 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of the subsidy program [3] - The "old for new" program allows consumers to enjoy a one-stop service from purchasing to the recycling of old appliances, enhancing convenience [3] Group 2: Product Focus and Sales Growth - Smart glasses have become a focal point in the digital sector after being included in the national subsidy program [4] - A sales representative noted a 30% increase in sales volume following the introduction of the national subsidy in 2026 [5] - In rural areas, tailored smart home appliances have been developed to meet local needs, resulting in increased single-customer spending and monthly sales reaching around 200,000 yuan [5] Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of maintaining market order during this renewal process [5] - Participants in the subsidy program are required to adhere to price filing, commitment, and public disclosure systems, with strict penalties for violations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The passenger car market in December shows significant divergence, with the implementation of the 2026 vehicle trade-in policy expected to benefit the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][3] Market Performance - In December, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.261 million units, down 14.0% year-on-year but up 1.6% month-on-month; wholesale sales were 2.789 million units, down 9.0% year-on-year and down 7.0% month-on-month [2] - The overall industry inventory decreased by 60,000 units in December, indicating cautious market conditions prompting dealers to actively reduce inventory [2] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 59.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the wholesale penetration rate was 56.0%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle trade-in policy introduces a proportional subsidy that favors the 150,000 to 200,000 price segment, which is expected to improve the sales structure of new vehicles [3] - The new policy will provide subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 yuan) for NEVs and 8% (up to 15,000 yuan) for fuel vehicles, with the overall funding for the 2026 policy set at 625 billion yuan, a reduction compared to the previous year's 3 trillion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The consumer purchasing sentiment is expected to stabilize in January 2026 due to the early implementation of the trade-in policy and the backlog of year-end orders [4] - The market is anticipated to experience a smooth transition in sales as the new policy is expected to mitigate price wars and internal competition [4] Sector Performance - In the recent bi-weekly review, the performance of various sectors showed increases, with parts (+7.24%), commercial vehicles (+2.80%), and passenger vehicles (+2.08%) leading the gains [5] - Valuation metrics indicate that the price-to-earnings ratios for sales and services, parts, motorcycles, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles are 36.18x, 33.83x, 26.73x, 22.74x, and 16.73x respectively [5]

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2026-1-9 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 再 | 美 | 市 | 下 | 有 | 低 | 计 | 于 | 势 | 数 | 杜 | 显 | 台， | 矿 | 幅 | 逢 | 的 | 铜 | 则 | 对 | 积 | 累 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 据 | 指 | 马 | 扰 | 存 | 议 | 底 | 铜 | 小 | 出 | 场 | 累 | 数 | 统 | 业PMI | 月 | 步 | ...

Group 1: National Policies and Financial Support - The first batch of "national subsidies" for 2026 has been allocated, with a total of 62.5 billion yuan designated for consumer goods replacement and equipment updates [1] - The policy includes support for the installation of elevators in old residential areas and equipment for elderly care institutions [1] Group 2: Furniture Manufacturing Industry Performance - In the first 11 months, the total profit of the furniture manufacturing industry reached 24.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7% [2] - The total revenue for the furniture manufacturing industry was 554.11 billion yuan, down 9.1% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Company Developments and Strategic Moves - Jianlin Home announced its subsidiary Apis will transition to a smart robotics company, focusing on smart manufacturing robots, logistics robots, and health service robots [3][4] - Zhiou Technology acquired land for 50.94 million yuan to build its global R&D headquarters, with a total investment of 250 million yuan [5] - Jia Shi Jia Group's IPO has been accepted, aiming to raise 771 million yuan for projects including smart green factory construction [5] - Huali Co. terminated its plan to acquire 51% of Zhongke Huilian, with no significant impact on its operations [5] - Kailai Fengsheng's smart home factory has been established in Foshan, with a total investment of 500 million yuan [6] - Gujia Home signed a strategic investment cooperation agreement with Dengfeng Electric to enhance its smart home product offerings [7] - Mengbaihe abandoned its expansion plans for a factory in the U.S. and redirected 155 million yuan to build an e-commerce warehouse in South Carolina [8] - Aoyang Ceiling's actual controller will change to Shi Qiming, with a share acquisition plan in place [9] - Zhongtian Decoration underwent significant management changes, including the appointment of a new chairman and general manager [11] - Diou plans to invest up to 240 million yuan in its subsidiary to create an independent operating platform for its "Diwang" bathroom business [12] - Haier Smart Home's vice president Li Pan has resigned, with Song Yujun taking over overseas business operations [13] Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Updates - Dongtai Hardware won a legal case regarding its core patent, receiving 1.4 million yuan in compensation [14] - Rose Island's IPO has been suspended due to the expiration of financial report validity [15] - New Pearl's IPO application has been terminated following the withdrawal of its listing request [16]

明日，A股市场将迎来2026年首个交易日。元旦假期期间，港股迎来新年开门红，在美上市的中国资产 也有强势表现，一定程度上提振了市场对A股新年开门红的预期。 展望后市，机构认为，开年后A股震荡向上的概率更高，投资者对春季行情应保持耐心，消费与成长板 块有望成为春季行情的两条主线。配置上，热度和持仓集中度相对较低但关注度开始提升、催化开始增 多且长期ROE有提升空间的板块值得关注，此外人民币汇率也具备继续走强可能，这或为港股带来一定 利好。 影响后市投资大事件 1月1日起房贷利率下调 自2026年1月1日起，存量住房公积金贷款利率下调25个基点。此外，由于2025年5年期以上LPR累计下 调10个基点，因此部分重定价日在1月1日的商贷利率也迎来下调。 2026年"国补"政策明确 近日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通 知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。通知称：继续实施汽车报废更新和汽 车置换更新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水 器等6类产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.01% to 26,338.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.31% to 5,736.44 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 2.85% to 9,168.99 points during the week from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026 [5][32] - Among the primary sectors, 7 sectors rose while 4 sectors declined. The Information Technology, Energy, and Materials sectors saw increases of 4.54%, 3.97%, and 2.98% respectively, while the Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare sectors experienced declines of 2.25%, 1.60%, and 0.59% respectively [7][34] Liquidity and Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 171.19 billion, an increase of HKD 31.26 billion from the previous week. The average daily short-selling amount was HKD 19.93 billion, up by HKD 2.96 billion, with short-selling accounting for 11.78% of the trading volume, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week [13][39] - There was a net outflow of HKD 3.81 billion from southbound funds, a decrease of HKD 6.37 billion compared to the previous week's net inflow [14][40] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of January 2, 2026, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, both up by 2.36% from the previous week, placing them at the 79% and 56% percentiles since 2010 [2][16] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.08% based on the 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.19%, which is at the 4% percentile since 2010 [21][45] - The Hang Seng Tech Index had a PE ratio of 23.8 times and a PB ratio of 3.15 times, positioned at the 36% and 66% percentiles since 2010 [2][16] Investment Outlook - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated a consensus on interest rate cuts, although there were significant disagreements among officials. The manufacturing PMI for December in China was reported at 50.1%, indicating expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2% [29][50] - The technology sector is expected to remain a long-term investment focus due to multiple favorable factors such as price increases in the supply chain, mergers and acquisitions, and domestic substitution [29][50] - The consumer sector is anticipated to benefit from policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, suggesting significant medium to long-term upside potential [29][50]

Group 1 - The core policy announced by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance outlines a subsidy program for the replacement of old appliances and consumer goods starting in 2026, covering ten categories of products [1] - Consumers can receive a subsidy of 15% of the sales price for energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per item, and for digital and smart products, with a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan per item [1] - The total potential savings for an individual consumer can reach up to 11,000 yuan when purchasing eligible products [1] Group 2 - JD.com has streamlined the process for consumers to access the national subsidy, requiring only three steps to claim the benefits through its app [2] - The company has committed nearly 30 billion yuan to support the subsidy program in rural areas, aiming to boost rural consumption and economic growth [2] - JD.com offers additional services such as old appliance recycling subsidies and integrated services for delivery, installation, and removal, enhancing the consumer experience [2][3] Group 3 - JD.com ensures the safety of subsidy funds through a fully digitalized process, implementing risk control strategies to prevent fraud and ensure that subsidies reach consumers [3]