二是节后短期外部风险可能有限：首先，1 月美联储大概率降息；其次，年初中美关系维持平稳，俄乌 等地缘冲突可能缓和，但中日关系仍可能偏紧。（2）节后短期流动性可能进一步宽松。一是节后宏观 流动性可能进一步宽松：首先，1 月美联储降息是大概率；其次，元旦后国内央行可能进一步降息降 准。二是节后短期股市资金可能加速流入。（3）元旦假期期间港股表现偏强，可能对节后A 股表现有 一定提振作用。（4）节后短期经济和盈利仍在弱修复。一是节后经济依然处于弱修复。二是节后企业 盈利也可能继续修复：首先，11 月工业企业利润继续回落，盈利修复仍偏弱；其次，节后部分科技和 周期行业可能公布年报预告，盈利可能继续回升。 节后科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占优。（1）复盘历史，政策和产业趋势向上等驱动节前强势的 行业在节后延续强势。一是复盘历史，节前领涨行业在节后出现切换主要受情绪偏高、大盘出现调整等 驱动。二是复盘历史，政策和产业趋势向上等驱动节前强势的行业在节后延续强势。（2）今年来看， 元旦后科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占优。一是节后科技成长和部分周期行业产业趋势可能持续上 行：首先，节后科技产业趋势和政策支持可能持续向上；其 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has implemented multiple interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic development, leading to a cumulative social financing increase of 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The Ministry of Finance has mandated insurance companies to establish a long-term assessment mechanism, increasing the weight of long-term investments (3-5 years) to 70%, which is expected to encourage insurance capital to increase equity asset allocation [1] - A 1% increase in stock allocation by insurance capital could bring approximately 350 billion yuan in incremental funds to the A-share market, benefiting high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance, as well as strategic emerging industries in the long run [1] Group 2 - The major indices saw an overall increase of 1.09% for the large-cap index and 2.36% for the ChiNext index, with 3,856 stocks rising, indicating a broad market rally [3] - The trading volume returned to 1.73 trillion yuan, suggesting that new capital is entering the market, and the recent upward trend is likely to continue unless significant negative news emerges [3] - The banking sector experienced a sharp decline at the end of the trading session, which negatively impacted the dividend index and large-cap stocks, indicating a potential short-term peak in the banking sector's performance [5] Group 3 - All three major indices experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index by 0.8%, despite a high volatility session [7] - As long as the trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, any potential pullback in the coming days is likely to be followed by a rebound, with a focus on sectors such as brokerage, technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, electricity, and military [7] - The market sentiment remains positive, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices, as sectors like rare earths, brokerages, and pharmaceuticals lead the gains [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they are expected to operate with a slight upward trend, and the medium - term view is that they will fluctuate. The overall reference view is range - bound. This is due to the cooling of external risk factors and the expectation of policy benefits [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term, medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is slightly upward. The overall view is range - bound, with policy benefits providing strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is fluctuating, with a reference view of range - bound. The previous day, all stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite 50 leading the gains. The full - market trading volume was 1349.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The large - finance and shipping sectors were strong. Central bank interest rate and reserve requirement cuts benefited the large - finance sector, and the 90 - day buffer period of the Sino - US tariff war and the "order - grabbing" effect benefited the shipping sector. With reduced overseas uncertainties and clear domestic policy support, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will run with a strong bias in a volatile manner, and the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The main reason is that the positive signals from the policy side in the short term have stabilized market expectations and formed a strong bottom support for the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is strongly biased in a volatile manner. The core logic is that the policy - side benefits provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: The stock indexes rose across the board yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1321.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 183.3 billion yuan compared with the previous day [5]. - **Policy Support**: On May 7, the "one bank, one bureau, one commission" introduced the "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation stability". The policy side has a good effect on stabilizing market expectations. The central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, combined with the fiscal policy, can boost domestic demand and promote the stabilization and recovery of listed companies' performance [5]. - **Capital Level**: The central bank increases the re - loan quota to support consumption and technology; the CSRC supports the role of Huijin's quasi - stabilization fund and promotes the linkage between the performance evaluation of public funds and investors' returns; the financial regulatory authority expands the long - term investment pilot scope of insurance funds and reduces the risk factor of insurance companies' stock investment, which can continuously increase the incremental funds in the stock market and promote the re - evaluation of the stock market value [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US tariffs, and market risk appetite has recovered. However, the results of the Sino - US contact from May 9th to 12th need to be noted [5].