1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is affected by the rising unemployment rate, and silver is in a high - level adjustment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Price Data - The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 yesterday was 971.42, with a daily decline of 1.19%, and the night - session closing price was 974.22, with a night - session decline of 0.14% [1] - The closing price of Gold T + D yesterday was 964.67, with a daily decline of 1.27%, and the night - session closing price was 969.00, with a night - session increase of 0.07% [1] - The closing price of Comex Gold 2602 yesterday was 4332.20, with a daily decline of 0.05% [1] - The closing price of London Gold Spot was 4307.85, with a daily increase of 0.09% [1] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 yesterday was 14666, with a daily decline of 0.85%, and the night - session closing price was 14731.00, with a night - session decline of 0.24% [1] - The closing price of Silver T + D yesterday was 14649, with a daily decline of 0.98%, and the night - session closing price was 14700, with a night - session increase of 0.18% [1] - The closing price of Comex Silver 2602 yesterday was 63.795, with a daily decline of 0.52% [1] - The closing price of London Silver Spot was 63.786, with a daily decline of 0.19% [1] 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Position Data - The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 yesterday was 293,904, a decrease of 145,858 compared with the previous day, and the position was 196,206, a decrease of 6,832 compared with the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Comex Gold 2602 yesterday was 206,463, an increase of 4,922 compared with the previous day, and the position was 339,237, an increase of 3,969 compared with the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 yesterday was 1,571,376, a decrease of 785,850 compared with the previous day, and the position was 364,062, a decrease of 17,766 compared with the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Comex Silver 2602 yesterday was 95,023, a decrease of 16,236 compared with the previous day, and the position was 115,429, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] 3.1.3 ETF and Inventory Data - The position of SPDR Gold ETF yesterday was 1,051.68, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] - The position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) was 16,018.29, a decrease of 42 compared with the previous day [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Gold (in kilograms) yesterday was 91,302, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] - The inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces, the day before) was 35,967,232, a decrease of 520 compared with the previous day [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Silver (in kilograms) yesterday was 890,715, an increase of 32901 compared with the previous day [1] - The inventory of Comex Silver (in troy ounces, the day before) was 454,560,376, an increase of 1,200,602 compared with the previous day [1] 3.1.4 Spread Data - The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 yesterday was - 6.75, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] - The spread between Shanghai Gold 2602 contract and 2606 contract was N/A, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying Shanghai Gold in December and selling in June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87 compared with the previous day [1] - The spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 588.21, an increase of 586.52 compared with the previous day [1] - The spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 yesterday was - 2, an increase of 27 compared with the previous day [1] - The spread between Shanghai Silver 2602 contract and 2606 contract was - 13,933, a decrease of 414 compared with the previous day [1] - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying Shanghai Silver in December and selling in June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 compared with the previous day [1] - The spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was - 1,670, a decrease of 100 compared with the previous day [1] 3.1.5 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index yesterday was 98.22, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous day [1] - The US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.04, a decrease of 0.09% compared with the previous day [1] - The euro against the US dollar was 1.18, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] - The US dollar against the Japanese yen was 155.29, an increase of 0.05 compared with the previous day [1] - The British pound against the US dollar was 1.21, unchanged compared with the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In the US, the non - farm payrolls in October had the largest decline in five years, recovered in November but overall remained weak, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high [1] - The overall retail sales in the US in October were flat, but the core indicators far exceeded expectations, supporting the growth in the fourth quarter [3] - The Trump administration threatened to use "all tools" to retaliate against the EU digital tax and specifically named potential targets such as SAP and Siemens [4] - Trump plans to give a national speech at 9 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, and the White House said he may preview some policies to be launched next year [6] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that the investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [6] - The EU may abandon the "full ban" on fuel - powered vehicles in 2035, reduce the emission reduction target to 90%, and allow the sale of plug - in hybrid vehicles [6] - Vanke proposed to extend the principal repayment of the medium - term note by 12 months and provide corresponding credit enhancement measures [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and the trend intensity of silver is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, currently at 25,800 points, down 0.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also opened lower, currently at 5,565 points, down 0.88% [4] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and tourism sectors showed strong gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Jiangxi Copper rising over 3% [6] - Conversely, the e-commerce and blockchain sectors experienced significant declines, with Gome Retail dropping over 6% and NetEase-S down over 2% [6] New Listings - Two newly listed stocks opened below their issue prices, with Yujian Xiaomian (HK02408) trading at HKD 5.28, down approximately 25% from its issue price, and Tianyu Semiconductor (HK02658) at HKD 44.6, down about 23% [6] Industry Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on the Macau gaming industry for next year, expecting strong demand supported by diverse tourism products and increased market promotion, raising revenue growth forecasts for the next two years to 9% and 6% respectively [8] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market could create opportunities for 2026, highlighting the impact of the "K-shaped economy" and the necessity for a rate cut in December due to rising unemployment rates [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]