商 品 研 究 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪金2602 | 971.42 | -1.19% | 974.22 | -0.14% | | | 黄金T+D | 964.67 | -1.27% | 969.00 | 0.07% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4332.20 | -0.05% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4307.85 | 0.09% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 14666 | -0.85% | 14731.00 | -0.24% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 14649 | -0.98% | 14700 | 0.18% | | | Comex白银2602 | 63.795 | -0.52% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | 63.786 | -0.19% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, currently at 25,800 points, down 0.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also opened lower, currently at 5,565 points, down 0.88% [4] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and tourism sectors showed strong gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Jiangxi Copper rising over 3% [6] - Conversely, the e-commerce and blockchain sectors experienced significant declines, with Gome Retail dropping over 6% and NetEase-S down over 2% [6] New Listings - Two newly listed stocks opened below their issue prices, with Yujian Xiaomian (HK02408) trading at HKD 5.28, down approximately 25% from its issue price, and Tianyu Semiconductor (HK02658) at HKD 44.6, down about 23% [6] Industry Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on the Macau gaming industry for next year, expecting strong demand supported by diverse tourism products and increased market promotion, raising revenue growth forecasts for the next two years to 9% and 6% respectively [8] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market could create opportunities for 2026, highlighting the impact of the "K-shaped economy" and the necessity for a rate cut in December due to rising unemployment rates [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]