Labor Market Insights - July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, below the market expectation of 104,000[11] - Revisions for May and June showed decreases of 12.5 and 13.3 thousand jobs respectively, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought[11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[11] Economic Trends - The U.S. labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening[3] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to approximately 18.3% after August 1, down from 22.5% in April, which may impact economic activity[5] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September[4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated a focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payrolls, suggesting that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3%[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.4%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17 basis points to 4.2%[5] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, and offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. labor market** and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on the **unemployment rate** and its potential impact on market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - The **current unemployment rate** in the U.S. is fluctuating between **3.6% and 4.0%**, nearing the threshold that could trigger the **"Summer Rule,"** indicating a risk of economic recession, similar to the market reactions observed in **Q3 2024** [1][2] - The **labor market** has cooled to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant decrease in the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [1][3] - **Immigration policies** have a dual impact on the job market: initially filling labor shortages but later increasing competition with native workers, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate among immigrants [1][4] - Leading indicators show a continued weakening in employment demand, with key metrics like non-farm payroll data indicating a potential acceleration in labor market cooling in the latter half of the year [1][5] Additional Important Content - The **Trump administration** saw a historic high in immigration detentions, but the overcapacity of detention facilities limited the effectiveness of deportations on the job market [1][8] - The **impact of tariffs** on the U.S. economy and job market is significant, with broader and stronger tariffs potentially leading to a **1% economic shock** and an increase in the unemployment rate by **0.3% to 0.7%** [1][10] - Market expectations suggest that the unemployment rate could reach around **4.5%** by the end of the year, with a possibility of hitting **4.6%**, which may trigger the **Summer Rule** [2][11] - The **Summer Rule** indicates that if the unemployment rate rises by **0.5 percentage points**, it signals a recession, with potential market reactions including stock market declines and increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][12] - If the **Summer Rule** is triggered in the latter half of the year, it could lead to significant market changes, including a drop in stock prices and commodity prices, alongside a rise in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][13] - There are internal divisions within the **Federal Reserve** regarding inflation and employment, with differing views on whether to prioritize inflation control or employment protection [2][14]

Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakening, with both labor supply and demand declining, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease[2] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals has fallen below the levels seen at the end of 2019, indicating a tightening labor market[2] - Since early 2025, the U.S. economy has been weakening, and the impact of tariffs on the labor market is a concern for the second half of the year[2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to approximately 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, with a potential increase of 0.3-0.7 percentage points if GDP declines by 1% due to tariffs[4] - If the unemployment rate reaches 4.6%, it may trigger the "Sahm Rule" recession signal, which has historically indicated economic downturns[5] - The average monthly increase in the unemployment rate from January to May 2025 was about 0.06 percentage points, suggesting a continued upward trend[5] Tariff Impact on Employment - The tariffs are expected to have a significant negative impact on the U.S. job market, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows signs of contraction[4] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a slowdown, and the tariffs are expected to exacerbate existing challenges such as declining wage growth and rising precautionary savings among consumers[4] Immigration Policy Effects - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration has led to a supply shock in the labor market, further exacerbating the decline in job growth[3] - The influx of illegal immigrants has historically helped to stabilize the labor market, but recent reductions in immigration may lead to increased unemployment rates[31] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, indicating market volatility amid economic uncertainty[6] - The actual yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased to 2.0%, reflecting changing investor sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rates[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 rising by 3.4% and the Nasdaq by 4.2% during the week [1][2] - The US dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, while the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar [1][32] - WTI crude oil prices dropped by 11.3% to $65.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold decreased by 2.8% to $3269.2 per ounce [1][46] Group 2: Trade Agreement Developments - The US and China signed a formal trade agreement on June 24, which includes the lifting of China's rare earth export ban and the US's cancellation of export bans on ethane, chip software, and jet engines [1][64] - The US has not disclosed further specific terms of the agreement, but it marks a significant step in trade relations [1][64] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with some supporting a cut in July while others advocate for a wait-and-see approach [1][70] - The latest PCE inflation data showed a month-on-month change of -0.3%, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending [1][77] Group 4: Global Market Performance - Developed market indices saw broad increases, with the Nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively [2] - Emerging market indices also performed well, with the Cairo CASE30 index increasing by 9.1% [2] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Most commodities experienced mixed performance, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both declining significantly, while some metals like LME copper and aluminum saw increases of 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively [46][53]