Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent maturity of high-interest deposits is leading customers to diversify their investments into wealth management products, as these products currently offer higher yields compared to similar-term deposits [1][2][3] - The banking industry is experiencing a shift in deposit structure, with an increase in demand for wealth management products, stocks, and funds as alternatives to traditional savings [1][3] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market reached 43,900, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%, with a total scale of 32.13 trillion yuan, up 9.42% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Recent reports from listed banks indicate a growth in demand for demand deposits, with a notable increase in the proportion of these deposits, suggesting a positive trend in the banking sector [3] - The decline in deposit rates is expected to accelerate the re-pricing of high-interest deposits, which may alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins and create room for future monetary easing [4] - The overall trend indicates that as the capital market stabilizes, there is a growing need for asset reallocation among residents, further influencing the banking liability structure [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the total amount of high-interest fixed deposits maturing in 2025 for listed banks is approximately 39.7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion maturing in the first quarter [1] Group 1: Maturing Deposits - The estimated total of high-interest fixed deposits (2 years and above) maturing in 2025 is 39.7 trillion yuan, with 19.8 trillion yuan for 2-year, 17.4 trillion yuan for 3-year, and 2.5 trillion yuan for 5-year deposits [1] - The maturity schedule shows that 42% of these deposits will mature in Q1, followed by 16% in Q2, 18% in Q3, and 24% in Q4 [1] - An additional 19.6 trillion yuan of high-interest fixed deposits is expected to mature in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Deposit Repricing and Cost Rate - The average cost rate for deposits is projected to decline to 1.61% in 2025 due to the repricing of fixed deposits, with quarterly rates expected to be 1.68%, 1.64%, 1.58%, and 1.53% for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [5] - The repricing of fixed deposits is expected to improve the deposit cost rates by 11.7 basis points in Q1, 4.2 basis points in Q2, 5.7 basis points in Q3, and 5.1 basis points in Q4 [5] - For 2026, the average deposit cost rate is expected to further decline to 1.52% in the first half of the year [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Changes - The interest rate reduction for 2025 maturing 3-year deposits is estimated to be between 125 to 150 basis points, while 2-year deposits will see a reduction of 60 to 100 basis points [3] - The interest rate reduction for 2026 maturing deposits is projected to be 60 basis points for 2-year, 135 basis points for 3-year, and 145 basis points for 5-year deposits [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Kaiyuan Securities suggests that the effective decrease in bank liability costs will alleviate the interest rate inversion phenomenon for government bonds, with a potential recovery in bond allocation space by Q4 2025 [6] - The report recommends investment in CITIC Bank and highlights beneficiaries such as Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]