资产端：收益率下降压力或明显好于2025年 1)贷款：重定价压力缓解(2025 年5 年期LPR 降幅为10bp，较去年少降50bp)，叠加新发放贷款利率降幅 趋缓、存量贷款利率与新发放利率价差持续收窄，贷款利率后续降幅预计有限。 2025年负债成本改善力度明显加大，上半年负债成本下降28bp(上年同期仅下降4bp)，其中存款、同业 负债成本改善，分别贡献19bp、7bp。同业负债成本较往年改善力度明显加大，一方面得益于同业活期 存款利率自律机制约束，另一方面银行在流动性缺口相对可控下，对同业存单发行节奏及期限亦有所控 制，对成本改善形成支撑。 负债端：存款到期比例提升，重定价红利托底息差表现 1)期限结构：长期限存款陆续进入重定价周期，加之近年来银行加大负债期限主动管理力度，存款剩余 期限在1-5 年占比自2024 年出现下降拐点，25Q2 末剩余期限在1-5 年存款占比较24Q2 末下降1.5pct 至 22.6%，宁波、重庆、常熟等银行下降幅度超过10pct。考虑到2022-2023 年为定存新增高峰期(23Q1 新 增定存12.5 万亿，同比多增3.7 万亿)，预计2026 年存款到期规模及比例更为显 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent maturity of high-interest deposits is leading customers to diversify their investments into wealth management products, as these products currently offer higher yields compared to similar-term deposits [1][2][3] - The banking industry is experiencing a shift in deposit structure, with an increase in demand for wealth management products, stocks, and funds as alternatives to traditional savings [1][3] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market reached 43,900, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%, with a total scale of 32.13 trillion yuan, up 9.42% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Recent reports from listed banks indicate a growth in demand for demand deposits, with a notable increase in the proportion of these deposits, suggesting a positive trend in the banking sector [3] - The decline in deposit rates is expected to accelerate the re-pricing of high-interest deposits, which may alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins and create room for future monetary easing [4] - The overall trend indicates that as the capital market stabilizes, there is a growing need for asset reallocation among residents, further influencing the banking liability structure [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the total amount of high-interest fixed deposits maturing in 2025 for listed banks is approximately 39.7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion maturing in the first quarter [1] Group 1: Maturing Deposits - The estimated total of high-interest fixed deposits (2 years and above) maturing in 2025 is 39.7 trillion yuan, with 19.8 trillion yuan for 2-year, 17.4 trillion yuan for 3-year, and 2.5 trillion yuan for 5-year deposits [1] - The maturity schedule shows that 42% of these deposits will mature in Q1, followed by 16% in Q2, 18% in Q3, and 24% in Q4 [1] - An additional 19.6 trillion yuan of high-interest fixed deposits is expected to mature in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Deposit Repricing and Cost Rate - The average cost rate for deposits is projected to decline to 1.61% in 2025 due to the repricing of fixed deposits, with quarterly rates expected to be 1.68%, 1.64%, 1.58%, and 1.53% for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [5] - The repricing of fixed deposits is expected to improve the deposit cost rates by 11.7 basis points in Q1, 4.2 basis points in Q2, 5.7 basis points in Q3, and 5.1 basis points in Q4 [5] - For 2026, the average deposit cost rate is expected to further decline to 1.52% in the first half of the year [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Changes - The interest rate reduction for 2025 maturing 3-year deposits is estimated to be between 125 to 150 basis points, while 2-year deposits will see a reduction of 60 to 100 basis points [3] - The interest rate reduction for 2026 maturing deposits is projected to be 60 basis points for 2-year, 135 basis points for 3-year, and 145 basis points for 5-year deposits [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Kaiyuan Securities suggests that the effective decrease in bank liability costs will alleviate the interest rate inversion phenomenon for government bonds, with a potential recovery in bond allocation space by Q4 2025 [6] - The report recommends investment in CITIC Bank and highlights beneficiaries such as Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]