Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The article identifies eight key industries that are capitalizing on changing consumer demands, highlighting the potential for growth in these sectors [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen significant revenue increases. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has surged, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales in pet food and healthcare products [12][13][15]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand driven by an aging population [18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased sales of sugar-free beverages and functional foods, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction in China [21]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products remains strong, with high sales figures for collagen supplements and home beauty devices, indicating a shift towards affordable beauty solutions [23][24][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as Snow Peak in Japan, are thriving, reflecting a growing interest in outdoor activities despite economic constraints [29][31]. - **Convenience Economy**: The trend towards convenience has led to a rise in frozen food sales and smart home appliances, as consumers seek to save time in their daily routines [39][40]. - **Lazy Economy**: The reduction in cooking time among younger generations has made ready-to-eat meals and smart appliances increasingly popular, highlighting a shift in consumer priorities [39][42]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article suggests that the current economic climate presents unique opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of recognizing and acting on these opportunities [44].

Group 1 - The core question for many is where the money will come from in 2026 [2] - The article highlights five key concepts related to business strategies for growth [3] - Many companies are facing significant challenges due to insufficient domestic demand [5][6] Group 2 - Companies are increasing competition due to limited market capacity, leading to a cycle of intense competition [7] - One potential solution for companies is to expand overseas, which has evolved from traditional export methods [8][9] - An example is Miniso, which not only sells products abroad but also relocates its entire value chain, including branding and R&D, overseas [10][11] Group 3 - Leading companies are beginning to explore overseas expansion, which requires integrating complex supply chain systems [14][15] - Tesla's operations in Shanghai illustrate the importance of a robust supply chain network for successful overseas ventures [20][21] - Other industries can also benefit from collaborating with leading companies to expand internationally [22] Group 4 - Companies are leveraging their unique advantages to succeed in overseas markets, such as cost advantages from factories in Yiwu [25][26] - Product advantages are also crucial, as seen with Mech-Mind Robotics, which has developed advanced industrial robots [27][28] - Identifying and utilizing comparative advantages can lead to successful international ventures [24] Group 5 - Building long-term trust in familiar social networks is essential for business success, as demonstrated by the story of Pang Donglai [31][34] - Employees who feel respected and valued are more likely to engage with customers and provide feedback, fostering a cycle of trust [34][36] Group 6 - The article discusses a shift in consumer behavior, where individuals are willing to pay for better experiences, indicating an upgrade in consumption concepts [38][39] - Businesses can create demand by introducing services that consumers may not initially recognize as valuable, such as travel photography for retirees [40][41] - As traditional large-scale business opportunities diminish, a more refined and personalized commercial ecosystem is emerging [43][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape by 2040, predicting revenues between $29 trillion and $48 trillion, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2] Group 2 - E-commerce is expected to account for 27%-38% of global retail revenue by 2040, up from approximately 20% currently, driven by market expansion in developing countries and growth in new product categories in developed nations [3][4] - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery within the e-commerce sector [5] Group 3 - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040, with advancements in battery technology and smart algorithms being key influencing factors [6][7] Group 4 - Cloud services are becoming increasingly essential as businesses require higher storage and computing capabilities, particularly with the rise of AI products that demand substantial computational power [9][10] Group 5 - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%-8% over the next decade, driven by demand across various sectors including computing, automotive, and industrial electronics [11] Group 6 - AI software services are rapidly evolving, with a growing number of users adopting AI assistants, leading to a competitive race among companies to develop advanced foundational models and applications [12][13] Group 7 - Digital advertising is expanding in value as more people access the internet, with improvements in algorithms enhancing platforms' abilities to target customers and track advertising costs [14][15] Group 8 - Streaming video platforms are expected to seek new revenue models due to increased investments in customer acquisition and content production, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [17][18] Group 9 - Shared autonomous vehicles may account for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue by 2040, although the realization of this future may take longer than anticipated [19][20] Group 10 - The space economy is emerging, with advancements in reusable rocket technology paving the way for more cost-effective space travel and operations [21][22] Group 11 - Cybersecurity is becoming a priority for businesses, with direct economic losses from cybercrime estimated at $950 billion in 2020, and indirect losses potentially reaching $4-6 trillion [24][25] Group 12 - Battery technology has seen significant advancements, with energy density increasing threefold over the past decades, driven by the demand from electric vehicles and energy storage solutions [26][27] - By 2040, electric vehicles are expected to represent over 80% of the battery market [28] Group 13 - The video game industry is projected to have 40% of the global population as players by 2030, with mobile and cloud gaming driving substantial market growth [29][30] Group 14 - Robotics is evolving with AI integration, leading to expectations that humanoid robots will become "ultimate intelligent agents" in the future [33][34] Group 15 - Biotechnology is accelerating in applications such as agriculture and alternative proteins, driven by breakthroughs in gene editing technologies [37] Group 16 - Modular construction methods are improving efficiency in building production, although global adoption remains limited [38] Group 17 - Nuclear fission power is being reconsidered as a supplement to renewable energy, with commitments from over 20 countries to double nuclear energy output by 2050 [40] Group 18 - Innovations in air transportation, including electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, are expected to transform the sector, contingent on regulatory progress [41][42] Group 19 - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, creating a significant market opportunity for effective weight loss treatments [43][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of a "low-desire society" where consumer spending patterns are shifting towards specific sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Business Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth and presents them as major business opportunities in the current economic climate [5]. - The first industry highlighted is the second-hand economy, where platforms like "闲鱼" and "转转" are seeing increased activity, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards second-hand goods [6][9]. - The pet economy is also on the rise, with brands like "中宠" and "Inaba" capitalizing on the trend of pet ownership and spending on premium pet products [11][12][15]. - Adult care products, particularly in the context of an aging population, are projected to grow significantly, with the adult diaper market in Japan surpassing $10 billion [16][17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are thriving due to changing demographics and increased health consciousness, with brands like "东方树叶" and "简醇" gaining traction [21]. - The beauty and aesthetics market is booming, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices seeing high sales, indicating a persistent demand for beauty solutions [23]. - Outdoor and leisure products are gaining popularity, with brands like "凯乐石" and "伯希和" experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek outdoor experiences [25][26]. - The emotional economy, characterized by products that provide comfort and joy, is also highlighted, with brands like "Rio" tapping into the market for low-alcohol beverages [28][29]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Trends - The article discusses the concept of a "low-desire society," suggesting that while consumers may be spending less on luxury items, they are reallocating their budgets towards experiences and products that enhance their quality of life [4][39]. - The trend of "lazy economy" is noted, where younger generations are opting for convenience in food preparation, leading to increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances [33][35]. - The article posits that in a low-desire cycle, time-saving products may hold more commercial value than cost-saving ones, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [36].

Core Insights - McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape, predicting revenues of $29 trillion to $48 trillion by 2040, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2] E-commerce - By 2040, e-commerce's share of global retail revenue is expected to rise to 27%-38% from approximately 20% currently [3] - Growth drivers include market expansion in developing countries and new product categories in developed nations, such as healthcare and emotionally valuable products [4] - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery across e-commerce platforms [5] Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040 [6] - Breakthroughs in battery technology and smart algorithms will significantly influence this sector, prompting increased R&D investments from both EV manufacturers and traditional automakers [7] Cloud Services - The demand for higher storage and computing capabilities is rising as the world becomes more interconnected, particularly with the advent of new AI products requiring substantial computational power [9] - The cloud services industry experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2005 to 2020, with similar growth expected in the coming decades [10] Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is forecasted to maintain a CAGR of 6%-8% over the next decade, driven by demand across various sectors including computing, data storage, automotive, and industrial electronics [11] AI Software Services - The rapid development of AI has led to its classification as a distinct sector, with increasing numbers of users adopting AI assistants [12] - Companies in the AI space are engaged in a competitive race to develop advanced foundational models and applications [13] Digital Advertising - Digital advertising is expanding in value globally, fueled by an increasing number of internet users and more time spent online [14] - Continuous algorithm improvements enhance platforms' abilities to target customers and track advertising costs, although competition for user attention necessitates higher investments in engaging content [15] Streaming Video - Investments in customer acquisition and content production are rising, prompting streaming platforms to seek new revenue models [17] - Developing countries are expected to contribute to growth in subscription and advertising revenues, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [18] Shared Autonomous Vehicles - The advent of autonomous driving technology may reduce the necessity for personal vehicle ownership, with shared autonomous vehicles potentially accounting for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue by 2040 [19][20] Space Economy - The emergence of a space economy is anticipated, with advancements in reusable rocket technology transforming the aerospace industry [21][22] Cybersecurity - Cybercrime caused approximately $950 billion in direct economic losses in 2020, with indirect losses estimated at $4-6 trillion [24] - Increasing awareness of cybersecurity has led businesses to enhance their investments in this area [25] Batteries - Significant advancements in battery technology have tripled energy density over the past few decades [26] - The global energy transition is driving demand for batteries, particularly in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with EVs expected to represent over 80% of the battery market by 2040 [28] Video Games - By 2030, an estimated 40% of the global population may become video game players, driven by new mobile and cloud gaming models [30] - Free-to-play games are generating substantial revenue, with budgets for AAA games reaching $200 million for releases in 2025 [32] Robotics - The integration of AI with robotics is expected to lead to significant advancements, with humanoid robots being viewed as potential "ultimate intelligent agents" [33][34] Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology - Breakthroughs in gene editing and other technologies are accelerating the application of biotechnology in agriculture, alternative proteins, consumer products, and bio-materials [37] Modular Construction - Modular construction methods, which involve prefabricating building components for on-site assembly, can significantly enhance construction efficiency [38] Nuclear Fission Power - The development of safer, smaller modular reactors may supplement renewable energy sources, with commitments from over 20 countries to double nuclear energy production by 2050 [40] Air Traffic - Innovations in electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and delivery drones are expected to drive significant technological changes in air traffic [41] Obesity Treatment Drugs - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, indicating a potential market for effective weight loss products [43]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of a "low-desire society" where consumer spending patterns are shifting towards specific sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Business Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth and presents them as major business opportunities in the current economic climate [5]. - The first industry highlighted is the second-hand economy, where platforms like "闲鱼" and "转转" are seeing increased activity as consumers shift from new luxury goods to second-hand purchases [6][9]. - The pet economy is also on the rise, with brands like "中宠" and "Inaba" capitalizing on the trend of pet ownership and spending on premium pet products [11][12][15]. - Adult care products, particularly in the context of an aging population, are projected to grow significantly, with the Japanese market for adult diapers exceeding $10 billion [16][17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are benefiting from changing demographics and increased health awareness, with products like sugar-free tea and functional drinks gaining popularity [21]. - The beauty and aesthetics market continues to thrive, with products aimed at enhancing appearance, such as collagen supplements and home beauty devices, seeing strong sales [23]. - Outdoor and leisure products are gaining traction as consumers seek ways to relieve stress, with brands like "凯乐石" and "伯希和" experiencing rapid sales growth [25][26]. - The emotional economy, characterized by products that provide comfort and joy, is also highlighted, with brands like "Rio" catering to consumers' desires for small pleasures [28][29]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Trends - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior towards valuing time over money, particularly in a low-desire economic environment, leading to increased demand for convenience products like frozen foods and smart home appliances [34][36]. - The concept of "lazy economy" is introduced, where younger generations prefer time-saving solutions, resulting in growth for brands that offer efficient household products [33][35]. - The article suggests that even in a challenging economic landscape, there are significant opportunities for those willing to invest in these emerging sectors [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by companies in 2025, particularly the issue of insufficient domestic demand, and suggests that going overseas may be a viable solution for growth and survival in a competitive market [4][5][6][8]. Group 1: Value Chain Going Overseas - Companies are encouraged to move their entire value chain, including products, branding, research and development, and business models, overseas rather than just exporting products [11]. - An example is provided with Miniso, which engages with its millions of private domain users to understand their preferences and rapidly implement changes [12]. - Establishing direct stores overseas helps deepen user recognition and build brand image [13]. Group 2: Collaborating with Industry Leaders - Many industry leaders are beginning to explore overseas markets, but successful expansion requires integrating complex supply chain systems and collaborating with local partners [14][15]. - Tesla's Shanghai factory exemplifies this, as it operates efficiently due to the support of numerous upstream and downstream enterprises within a 300-kilometer radius [18][20]. - When Tesla expanded to Mexico, it took its supply chain partners along, highlighting the importance of collaboration in international ventures [21][22]. Group 3: Leveraging Unique Advantages - Companies are finding unique advantages to succeed in overseas markets, such as cost advantages where products can be sold at double the domestic price [25][26]. - Product advantages are also highlighted, with examples like Mech-Mind Robotics, which enhances industrial robots with advanced technology for complex tasks [27][29]. - Identifying and leveraging comparative advantages can lead to successful international ventures [24]. Group 4: Building Long-Term Trust - The story of Pang Donglai illustrates the importance of building long-term trust through exceptional customer service and employee treatment, leading to a loyal customer base [31][34]. - Employees who feel respected are more likely to engage with customer feedback, creating a cycle of trust and satisfaction [34][36]. Group 5: Meeting Aspirations for a Better Life - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, where individuals are willing to pay for enhanced experiences, indicating a demand for services that cater to these aspirations [38][39]. - An example is provided of a travel photography service that became popular among retirees, demonstrating how consumer needs can be activated through effective marketing [40][42]. - As traditional large-scale business opportunities diminish, there is a growing trend towards more refined and personalized business ecosystems that cater to individual desires for a better life [43][46].