1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, and stainless steel futures prices will also fluctuate and adjust [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +2.54% and an amplitude of 7.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 135,190 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The US existing - home sales in January were lower than expected. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decline due to the rainy season. Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, and the raw material supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be significantly lower than that in 2025. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and the production profit has room for improvement, so the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. The demand from stainless steel mills and the new - energy vehicle industry is increasing. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the position is stable, and the market sentiment is flat [9] Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +1.39% and an amplitude of 4.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 13,860 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The raw material supply of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to cut production. The production profit of stainless steel mills has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost. The end - of - year maintenance of steel mills increases, and the output growth is limited. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, but the export volume remains high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the social inventory of stainless steel begins to accumulate seasonally. Technically, the position decreases, and both long and short positions are cautious [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Price Movement - As of February 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 135,190 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of February 13, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,045 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan/nickel from last week [15] Basis - As of February 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 140,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,910 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton [20] Price Ratio - As of February 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.75, up 0.11 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.7 yuan/ton, down 0 from last week [27] Net Long Positions - As of February 12, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 52,531 lots, an increase of 6,355 lots from February 6, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,583 lots, an increase of 956 lots from February 6, 2026 [31] 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory and Production Profit**: As of February 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons from last week. As of February 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was - 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,600 yuan/ton from last week [39][40] - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.83%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 233,105.581 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.4% [43] - **Exchange Inventories**: As of February 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons from last week. As of February 13, the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 tons, an increase of 2,238 tons from last week [51] Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In January 2026, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%. Among them, the output of 400 - series stainless steel was 645,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.64%; the output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the output of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.0331 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85%. In December 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7324 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [55] - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of February 13, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 304,983 tons, an increase of 19,938 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 531,769 tons, an increase of 15,626 tons from last week [60] - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of February 13, the stainless steel production profit was 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from last week [64] - **Related Industries**: In 2025, the real estate industry showed a weak downward trend, with the new - construction area, completion area, and development investment all decreasing year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the output of household refrigerators and freezers increased year - on - year, and the output of washing machines decreased year - on - year. In January 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles was flat year - on - year, and the sales decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of excavators and large - and medium - sized tractors increased year - on - year, while the output of small tractors decreased year - on - year [68][72]

近期不锈钢市场涨势明显。截至12月25日，无锡太钢304/2B2.0mm市场价格在13500-13600元/吨，较上 周同期涨300元/吨，幅度在2.26%。 (12月26日)今日全国不锈钢板价格一览表 12月19日不锈钢期货库存录得48495.00吨，较上一交易日减少12106.00吨。 分析观点： 华泰期货研报：需求低迷、库存高企，成本重心持续下移，预计不锈钢仍将保持低位震荡态势。风险： 国内相关经济政策、房地产政策变动，印尼政策变动，新任美国总统计划出台的一系列政策。 期货市场上看，12月26日收盘，不锈钢期货主力合约报12955.00元/吨，跌幅0.00%，最高触及13010.00 元/吨，最低下探12895.00元/吨，日内成交量达129760手。 【市场资讯】 据了解，印尼某主流不锈钢厂周三将出口盘价上调20美元/吨，两周内累计涨幅已达80美元/吨。这一持 续的挺价举措显示出外盘强劲的成本支撑及看涨意愿。 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | 报价 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251010: Limited Rebound Height [1] 2. Core View - On October 9, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 130,864 lots (+3,674) and an open interest of 86,038 lots (+9,898). LME nickel rose 0.91%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the rebound height of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased on October 9 compared to previous dates. For example, the near - month contract closed at 124,260 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 130,864 lots, an increase of 3,674 lots. The open interest was 86,038 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while LME nickel inventory increased. The total LME nickel inventory on October 9 was 236,892 tons, an increase of 5,580 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active Shanghai nickel futures contract changed from - 2,430 yuan/ton on September 24 to 1,000 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts also had changes. The near - month contract closed at 12,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless steel futures contract was 88,195 lots, a decrease of 39,957 lots compared to September 24. The open interest was 60,514 lots, a decrease of 7,320 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased. The inventory on October 9 was 86,551 tons, a decrease of 418 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active futures contract was 970 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Other Market Data - **Nickel Ore Prices**: The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8%) remained flat [2]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The prices of nickel - related products such as nickel pig iron, battery - grade nickel sulfate, and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate had different changes [2]. 4. Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the validity period of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to one year, and required general mining license (IUP) and single - commodity mining license (IUPK) holders to re - apply for RKAB in 2026 and 2027 [2]. 5. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Short at high prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - **L利多因素**: Inventory is continuously decreasing, with both Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories reducing, alleviating short - term supply pressure; Nickel ore in Indonesia is in short supply, and prices are firm, providing cost support for nickel prices [3]. - **利空因素**: The long - term supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the bearish fundamental pattern persists; The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, and the improvement in terminal orders is insufficient, dragging down nickel prices [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: The market is intertwined with long and short factors, lacking new drivers, and overall maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **镍期货价格**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 1,470 yuan (-1.21%); the price of LME Nickel 3M is 15,105 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars (-2.28%) [4]. - **不锈钢期货 price**: The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (1%) [4]. - **镍现货 price**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 122,650 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (-0.22%); the price of imported nickel is 120,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (-0.29%) [4]. - **库存情况**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons; LME Nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 thousand tons, an increase of 15.5 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [4][6]. 3.2 Charts - **盘面信息**: There are charts showing the trends of domestic and foreign nickel futures, stainless steel futures, nickel spot average prices, etc., as well as seasonal charts of supply, production, and inventory in various aspects of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, including China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel total supply, domestic and LME nickel inventories, nickel ore prices and inventories, nickel iron production, downstream battery - grade nickel sulfate prices and production, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33].