21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 7—8月份经济数据边际走弱，外界对四季度稳增长政策加码期待上升。 9月29日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超在发 布会上表示，当前经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，外部环境仍然复杂严峻，经济回升向好的基础仍需 进一步巩固。下一步，将持续发力、适时加力实施宏观政策。同时，将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做 好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出。随着各项政策效应充分释放，有信心继续保持经济平稳健康 发展，有信心实现全年目标任务。 酝酿准备多时的新型政策性金融工具的最新情况也在发布会上得到回应。李超表示，新型政策性金融工 具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。正在会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投 放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投 资。 加快投放新型政策性金融工具 4月底，为了应对外部不利冲击，中央明确将推出一揽子稳就业稳外贸工具，其中一项就是新型政策性 金融工具。5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备会，梳理出项目清 单、明确申报基金的金额 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for macro policies to be proactive and effective in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment [2] - A new round of actions to stabilize growth in ten key industries will be implemented, focusing on enhancing consumption, promoting high-quality development of key industrial chains, and addressing "involution" in competition [4][6] - The manufacturing PMI for July showed a slight decline to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in new orders, but production activities remain in expansion territory [7][8] Group 2: Childcare Subsidy Policy - The national childcare subsidy scheme will provide 3,600 yuan per year for families with children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, benefiting over 20 million families annually [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. announced new "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, effective August 7, with Syria facing the highest rate [10] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension for previously suspended tariffs, signaling a commitment to dialogue and cooperation [9] Group 4: Competition in E-commerce - Major e-commerce platforms, including Meituan and Taobao, have pledged to regulate subsidy practices and resist unfair competition, responding to regulatory pressures [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges and ensure a stable recovery in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1]. - China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that these policies are effectively executed to maximize their impact [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The article calls for the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, including the acceleration of issuing and utilizing ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2]. - It stresses the need for increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to boost demand and improve market expectations through timely issuance of bonds and efficient approval processes [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2]. - The meeting emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Supply Quality - The focus should be on promoting consumption to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, including the continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy program with a budget of 138 billion yuan [3]. - There is a need to improve supply quality through deepening reforms, fostering new competitive industries, and integrating technological and industrial innovations [3]. Group 5: Capital Market - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4]. - The article suggests that a stable capital market and asset prices are essential foundations for consolidating the economic recovery trend [4].

Economic Growth and Policy Measures - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for the annual growth target [1][2] - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - Analysts suggest potential new measures such as interest rate cuts, increasing fiscal deficit ratios, and enhancing special bond issuance to boost domestic demand [1][2][3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption [7][8] - The government plans to issue an additional 690 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support consumption upgrades [7] - Service consumption showed a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a shift in consumption structure towards services [8] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing the foreign trade and foreign investment landscape [9] - Support for foreign trade enterprises facing challenges was emphasized, including optimizing export tax rebate policies [9][10] - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% [10] Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, particularly regarding local government debt [4][5] - Emphasis was placed on high-quality urban renewal to avoid oversupply in the real estate market and manage local debt risks [4][5] - The approach to debt management will balance risk prevention and development, with a focus on transforming financing platforms into ordinary state-owned enterprises [5] Capital Market Development - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [6] - Key reforms will focus on attracting international capital and increasing participation from more investors [6] - The implementation of policies to support long-term capital inflow into the market is also a priority [6]

Economic Growth and Policy Measures - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, showing resilience despite challenges [1][3] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to release policy effects [1][3] - Analysts suggest potential new measures such as interest rate cuts and increased fiscal deficit to support growth [2][4] Risk Management and Debt Control - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, particularly local government debt [1][6] - There is a strict prohibition on new hidden debts, and efforts will be made to clear local financing platforms [7][8] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to mitigate risks associated with real estate and local debt [7][8] Capital Market Development - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to stabilize its recovery [9] - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment-side reforms, and increasing long-term capital inflows [9] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The government aims to effectively release domestic demand potential and stimulate consumption through targeted actions [10][11] - Initiatives include supporting service consumption and improving the consumption environment in key cities [10][12] Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting stressed the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, particularly supporting export enterprises facing challenges [13][14] - There is a focus on optimizing export tax rebate policies and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's economy, highlighting a 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year and the need for effective macroeconomic policies in the second half to sustain this growth amidst various challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [2][5]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds, improve fund usage efficiency, and ensure basic livelihood protections [5][6]. - Economic analysts suggest that achieving a GDP growth rate of 4.7% in the second half is sufficient to meet the annual target, indicating that large-scale stimulus policies may not be necessary [5][6]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment [8][9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption upgrades, with plans for further allocations [8][9]. - Service consumption is identified as a key area for tapping into consumption potential, with a reported 5.3% year-on-year growth in service retail sales in the first half of the year [9][10]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Employment - The government aims to combine consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods, including the introduction of a national childcare subsidy program starting in 2025 [11][12]. - Policies to stabilize employment and reduce social insurance rates are being considered to ensure social harmony and stability [11][12]. - The government has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support major construction projects, indicating a commitment to infrastructure investment [12].