● 本报记者 连润 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，适度增发超长期特别国债有望纳入政策储备，"两新"政策支持资金 规模有望上调。 新型政策性金融工具有望推出 最新数据显示，1至7月份，基础设施投资同比增长3.2%，增速比全部投资高1.6个百分点；对全部投资 增长的贡献率为43.0%，比上半年提高6.0个百分点。 近日召开的国务院常务会议提出，要进一步强化财税金融等政策支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投 资环境，综合施策释放内需潜力。 专家表示，今年以来，大规模设备更新政策效应持续释放，继续支撑投资增长。随着地方政府专项债券 和超长期特别国债发行使用加快，"两重"项目开工建设提速，基础设施投资增长将保持平稳。后续，投 资加码或将成为释放内需潜力"组合拳"中的重要一环。 政策成效显著 今年以来，用于支持大规模设备更新改造的资金额度进一步增加，支持范围持续扩大，有效带动了总投 资的增长，政策成效显著。 设备购置投资带动作用明显，在数据上得以体现。国家统计局最新发布数据显示，1至7月份，设备工器 具购置投资同比增长15.2%，保持较快增长。在设备更新带动下，7月份船舶及相关装置制造、电机制 造等行业增加值分别同比增长 ...

Group 1 - The State Council meeting highlighted the significant achievements of the large-scale equipment update and consumer goods trade-in policy in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, promoting transformation, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3][4] - The policy has led to a 7.3% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement from April 2024 to July 2025, with notable growth in the information transmission software and technology service sectors at 27.8% and 28.3% respectively [4] - The trade-in policy has driven a 44.5% increase in sales of daily household appliances and a 22.8% increase in audiovisual equipment sales, with new energy vehicle sales surging by 81.7% [4] Group 2 - The government plans to support equipment updates with 200 billion yuan in long-term special treasury bonds, with the first batch of 173 billion yuan allocated to approximately 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [5] - Over 66 million consumers have participated in the trade-in program for 12 categories of household appliances, purchasing over 109 million units, while over 69 million consumers bought more than 74 million digital products [5] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced two interest subsidy policies for service industry loans and personal consumption loans, which are expected to work in conjunction with existing trade-in subsidies to enhance consumer spending [8]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the importance of enhancing policy support and comprehensive measures to unleash domestic demand potential, particularly through large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades [1][2] - The development of the sports industry and sports consumption is identified as a key component of the strategy to expand domestic demand, with a focus on increasing supply, enriching events, and upgrading sports products [2] - The "Three Norths" project is recognized as a major national strategy that impacts ecological security and sustainable development, requiring coordinated planning and support policies to achieve multiple benefits [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the need for safety in marine fishing operations, linking safety measures with the promotion of high-quality development in the fishing industry, and advocating for the modernization of old fishing vessels [3] - The importance of utilizing artificial intelligence and other technologies for comprehensive safety regulation in marine fishing is emphasized, aiming to enhance safety levels across all elements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential to support economic growth, focusing on expanding consumption and investment while promoting a unified national market [1][6]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - In the first half of the year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [2]. - The government has implemented policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods, with 690 billion yuan allocated to stimulate consumption, leading to significant retail sales growth in various categories [2]. - There is a shift in focus towards service consumption and improving living standards, with new policies aimed at personal consumption loans and childcare subsidies [2][3]. - Service consumption has been growing rapidly, with projections indicating that by 2024, it will account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure, contributing 63% to the growth of consumer spending [3]. Investment Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 800 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction projects has been fully allocated, with 735 billion yuan in central budget investments also nearly disbursed [4]. - Infrastructure investment has seen significant growth, particularly in water management and information transmission sectors, with manufacturing investment rising by 6.2% in the first seven months [4][5]. - There is a strong emphasis on optimizing investment structure to meet changing demands, particularly in education, healthcare, and quality housing [5]. Reform and Policy Measures - The government aims to enhance economic growth by addressing insufficient domestic demand through targeted policies that focus on effective resource allocation and quality investments [6][7]. - Future policies will focus on deepening reforms to stimulate consumption and expand effective investment, particularly in sectors like transportation, energy, and water resources [7].

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with external demand contributing significantly to this growth [1] - However, in the second quarter, GDP growth slowed to 5.2%, with external demand and consumption both declining [1] Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the US fell by 10.7% in the first half of the year, while overall exports increased by 5.9% [1][2] - The US also saw a significant drop in exports to China, with a 21.2% decrease in the first half [2][3] - Despite a reduction in tariffs announced in May, bilateral trade did not show significant improvement [2] Tariff Impact - Over half of the goods exported from China to the US experienced a decline in growth due to tariffs, with 53.5% of product categories underperforming [4] - The US has implemented high tariffs on various countries, affecting trade dynamics and potentially leading to a reduction in imports [8][11] Future Outlook - The IMF and WTO have adjusted their global trade growth forecasts downward, indicating potential negative impacts from tariff changes [6][8] - China's trade surplus may be affected by the US's narrowing trade deficit, which could limit China's export growth [10][12] Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand to counteract external pressures, emphasizing the need to release internal consumption potential [12][13]

Group 1 - The "two重" construction strategy is becoming a key driver for unleashing domestic demand potential, reflecting both immediate growth needs and long-term development considerations [1][3] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to effectively release domestic demand potential and high-quality promotion of "two重" construction, with a project list of 800 billion yuan already issued for major infrastructure projects [3] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, highlighting the core role of domestic demand in economic growth [4] Group 2 - The "two重" construction is playing a significant role in stimulating investment vitality, with innovative models like the Huangmaoxia Reservoir project attracting social capital through REITs [5] - Infrastructure investment is providing solid support for economic development, with 125 national regional medical centers and 6 emergency rescue centers being established, enhancing public service levels and creating new growth opportunities [5] - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies is boosting consumption from both supply and demand sides, creating a positive cycle [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential as a strategic move for economic stability and security [1] - The Politburo meeting outlines several measures, including fostering new growth points in service consumption and expanding consumer demand while improving livelihoods [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The "trade-in" policy has led to significant sales, with 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of consumer goods trade-in subsidies, resulting in a total sales volume of 2.9 trillion yuan benefiting approximately 400 million people [2] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [2] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - The service consumption sector is expected to grow rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [3] - As per international experience, a GDP per capita of around $15,000 accelerates the shift from goods to service consumption, and China's per capita GDP has already surpassed $13,000 [3] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - The Huangmaoxia Reservoir project in Guangdong is a key infrastructure initiative that will utilize government investment and attract social capital through a REITs pilot program [4][5] - The government has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, with a total of 800 billion yuan planned for this year [5] Group 5: Enhancing Private Investment - The government is implementing measures to stimulate private investment, including legislative support for private enterprises to participate in major national strategies and projects [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced over 3,200 new projects to attract private capital, enhancing project services and providing efficient support for private enterprises [7] Group 6: Consumer Financing Policies - Recent policies include personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, aimed at boosting consumption from both supply and demand sides [8] - The government is focused on improving effective supply and addressing bottlenecks to stimulate effective demand [9] Group 7: Economic Circulation - The government is committed to deepening reform and opening up to facilitate domestic and international dual circulation, which is essential for sustaining economic momentum [10] - Initiatives include building a unified national market and modern infrastructure systems to enhance economic circulation [10]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The July 2025 Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the integration of high-quality development with short-term economic growth, highlighting the need for flexible and anticipatory macro policies to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [6][7] - The meeting set a GDP growth target of 5.3% for the first half of 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals [6] - The focus on effective demand release and consumption growth was reiterated, with specific actions proposed to stimulate service consumption and expand commodity consumption [6][7] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Analysis - The agricultural sector showed a 3.62% increase in the week of July 21-27, 2025, with significant performance in sub-industries such as other planting, pig farming, and poultry feed [9] - Pig prices experienced a slight decline, with average prices in key provinces reported at 13.60, 15.54, and 14.13 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.37%, 0.32%, and 1.74% respectively [9] - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with companies like Haida Group positioned for growth [9] Group 3: Technology and Investment Trends - Meta and Microsoft have significantly increased their capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts for 2025, with Meta's CAPEX projected to be between 66-72 billion USD, up from a previous estimate of 64-72 billion USD [11] - The establishment of large-scale AI data centers by Meta is expected to enhance the penetration of HVDC technology in China, with recommendations for companies like Zhongheng Electric as key players in this sector [10][11] - The overall performance of major tech companies has exceeded expectations, providing a strong foundation for future CAPEX growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need to effectively release domestic demand potential in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve economic growth targets [3][5]. Economic Growth and Policy - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of the year, with final consumption contributing approximately 52% to economic growth, highlighting domestic demand as the main driver [3]. - The focus for the second half of the year will be on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policies [3][4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, alongside implementing structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery [3][4]. Consumer Demand and Spending - There will be a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, including policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods, with significant funding already allocated for this purpose [5]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, which has strong employment absorption capacity and growth potential, by providing financial support and promoting new consumption models [5]. Fiscal Policy and Social Welfare - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards improving people's livelihoods, with significant growth in budget allocations for education, social security, and health care [6]. - Recent policies include raising basic pensions and implementing free preschool education to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [6]. Urban Development and Infrastructure - The article emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a means to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on human-centered urbanization and infrastructure improvements [6]. - The government plans to support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and long-term special bonds [6]. Role of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces are expected to play a crucial role in driving growth by accelerating the issuance and utilization of special bonds and leading in the development of new productive forces [7]. - The emphasis is on these provinces to take the lead in deep reforms and high-level opening up to stimulate effective investment [7].

下半年结构性工具将更多向小微企业倾斜，具体手段或包括再贷款再贴现、定向降准、普惠小微贷款支持工具扩容等 文｜《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 下半年经济工作的重点是什么？有哪些相应的政策出台和落地？ 7月30日，中共中央政治局会议召开。针对下半年经济工作，会议指出，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳 市场、稳预期。 会议指出，要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应；要有效释放内需潜力，深入实施提振消费专项行动，在 扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点；要扩大高水平对外开放，稳住外贸外资基本盘；要扎实做好民生保障工作，突出就业优先政策 导向；要持续防范化解重点领域风险。 会议强调，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。这些提法是首次出现在中共中央政治局会议中。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼分析，强调灵活性表明，下半年经济政策将根据内外部环境变化适时调整，灵活应对内外 部冲击；预见性，即可持续预测和判断事物未来的发展变化，主动进行预调，加大逆周期和跨周期调节。 罗志恒认为，财政政策将是下半 ...