风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月26日，沪深两市震荡上行，上证指数涨0.33%，深成指涨0.6%，有色金属板块上涨1.63%，小金属 板块上涨1.94%，黄金板块上涨2.38%。截至10点40分，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨3.19%，洛阳钼业涨 5.72%。 天风证券指出，基本金属中，铜铝虽下游接货需求难提升，但铜价重心上移，铝受新疆产能释 放及库存减少影响价格上涨；贵金属受非农数据强化美联储降息预期、美元走弱及地缘避险支撑，金银 价高位震荡；小金属锡因供应扰动与资金情绪表现强势；稀土永磁供应端整合加速，出口预期修复，需 求端静待出口改善；能源金属锂价因供应担忧持续上行，钴价受供应紧张维持高位，镍价受印尼配额事 件反弹。综合来看，在宏观流动性改善预期下，有色板块各细分领域均有支撑，震荡上行趋势明确。有 色金属ETF(512400.SH)跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，从有色金属行业中选择规模较大和流动性较好的50 只股票组成样本股，综合反映有色金属行业公司股票的整体走势，权重股涵盖了贵金属、工业金属、稀 土、能源金属等多个细分板块，一键把握 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The rebound of nickel and stainless steel prices is due to technical oversold repair and improved macro - liquidity, not a substantial improvement in fundamentals. The nickel market has high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless steel market faces low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 113,600 yuan/ton and closed at 113,940 yuan/ton, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 97,677 (- 41,919) lots, and the open interest was 85,352 (- 8,713) lots. The Indonesian government's proposed nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant drop from 379 million tons in 2025 RKAB, promoted the nickel price rebound [1] - In the nickel ore market, there were recent transactions, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, a 1.4% nickel ore FOB40 transaction was completed at the northern mine Eramen. Shipping efficiency was okay. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore procurement might ease. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December was expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. Due to the rainy season in Indonesian mines, nickel ore supply decreased, but some iron plants had production - cut plans, so the change in domestic trade premium was limited and expected to remain flat [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Jinchuan's supply was tight, and the premium increased. The spot premiums of other refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 350 yuan/ton to 6,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 37,513 (- 748) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,998 (+ 690) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the unilateral position, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,380 yuan/ton and closed at 12,420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 101,495 (- 41,522) lots, and the open interest was 133,015 (- 4,171) lots. The slight rebound of stainless steel was due to technical oversold repair and the recovery of raw material nickel prices, but the strength was limited, indicating low market confidence [3] - With the rebound of the futures market, the spot price quotation was repaired, market confidence increased, and the transaction of low - price resources was good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 884.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share market experienced a rebound with reduced trading volume last week, driven by a resurgence in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1] Market Sentiment - Short-term market sentiment has shown signs of recovery, as evidenced by the implied volatility of ETF options and changes in liquidity [1] - The consensus is that the market is undergoing a correction from oversold conditions, despite limited marginal changes in the economic structure [1] Future Outlook - December is anticipated to bring improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, policy and industry themes, and the digestion of chip pressure, potentially leading to an early start of the spring rally [1] - It is recommended to position in high-probability directions during the "spring rally," with a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors [1] Sector Recommendations - For growth sectors, focus on aviation equipment and AI-related areas such as energy storage, power grids, and power equipment [1] - For cyclical sectors, attention should be given to chemicals and energy metals [1] - Additionally, large financials and certain high-value consumer sectors, such as liquor and consumer building materials, remain key choices for the mid-term revaluation of Chinese assets [1]

Core Insights - The report by CITIC Securities highlights the changing dynamics of global stock markets, indicating a shift from a "single core" investment strategy to a "regional diversification" approach, particularly in developed markets [3] - In emerging markets, there is a notable concentration in Asia, with China, India, and Taiwan collectively accounting for over 66% of the market [3] Market Structure - In developed markets, the weight of the US remains high at 71.46%, but has decreased, while Japan, France, and other developed markets are gaining weight [3] - The technology sector continues to dominate the global market, with information technology and finance accounting for over 42% in developed markets [3] - Emerging markets show a rise in technology and stable finance sectors, while resource sectors maintain relative strength [3] Regional Characteristics - China focuses on technology and manufacturing, showing high capital concentration and increasing capital attractiveness [3] - India's market structure is balanced with active consumption, finance, and industry sectors, benefiting from domestic demand and demographic advantages [3] - Japan's market is characterized by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, reflecting traditional manufacturing strengths [3] - Hong Kong and Singapore maintain their status as financial centers, with telecommunications and finance leading in market capitalization and trading [3] - Australia continues to exhibit resource-oriented characteristics, while Southeast Asia's market structure is fragmented and less active, indicating a developing capital market [3] Valuation Levels - Global stock market valuations are generally rising, with significant differentiation at the industry level [4] - The US market shows high valuations and strong profitability, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 PE ratios exceeding 25 and 33, respectively, and ROE above 18% [4] - European markets have moderate valuations, with Germany's DAX high but limited profitability, while UK and French markets exhibit lower valuations and earnings [4] - Asian markets show significant valuation and profitability disparities, with South Korea being attractively valued but with weak earnings, while India sees a valuation decline [4] - The technology sector shows notable valuation differences, with Germany at historical highs and South Korea undervalued; the financial sector in the US and Australia is highly valued, while some Southeast Asian markets are significantly undervalued [4]