证券研究报告 | 2025年9月25日 水牛还是价格修复？ 专题报告· 宏观经济 国信宏观 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 | 证券分析师：田地 | 证券分析师：董德志 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005483 | 0755-81982035 | 021-60933158 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523070001 | S0980524090003 | S0980513100001 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心结论 1、（1）从资产相关性视角来看，权益资产上行核心驱动并非来自于宏观流动性过剩。（2） 从微观视角来看，本轮权益资产上行到目前为止并未引发场外资金大规模入场，而主要以 场内资金腾挪和加杠杆完成。 2、（1）市场自"反内卷"以来主导国内资本市场走势的核心因子是风险偏好回升。（2）从 三个角度看，四季度价格可能延续边际企稳：一是内外需定价品种存在显著分化；二是反 内卷逐步实施，对内需部分产生托底作用；三是诸如M ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded while the spot gold's upward momentum weakened, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations between $3350 and $3375 [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has boosted gold bulls, but a recovery in risk appetite has suppressed safe-haven buying [1] - Technical analysts suggest that spot gold may rise slightly to the range of $3383 to $3388 per ounce, completing a rebound triggered by the support level of $3339 [3][4] Group 2 - Support for gold is at $3355, and a drop below this level would indicate the completion of the rebound and a return to the downtrend that began at $3408 [5] - The daily chart's wave pattern suggests a potential rise around $3454, as the fifth wave may be unfolding [6] - If gold fails to break through the resistance level of $3376, this possibility will be negated [7] Group 3 - Reports indicate that the US government may take several weeks to announce the results of investigations into tariffs on drug imports and specific industries, delaying initial commitments [2] - European officials and industry insiders suggest that the focus of the US government is currently on the upcoming US-Russia summit, which may further postpone announcements [2] - It is expected that the US government will first release results of the national security investigation related to semiconductors before addressing the pharmaceutical sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates, driven by increased risk appetite, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and heightened commodity inflation sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, with the commodity market also rising, while the bond market faced pressure with yields increasing [1] - The 10-year government bond yield approached 1.72%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 1.93%, breaking the recent narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Despite a recovery in the afternoon, the overall trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" continues, with the 10-year yield falling back below 1.7% [1][3] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the current bond market adjustment reflects two main characteristics: rising risk appetite and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally fragile [2] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with liquidity staying reasonably ample, as evidenced by the DR007 operating around 1.5% [2] - There is a shift in asset preferences, with bonds under pressure due to insufficient returns and unfavorable market conditions, while commodities and stocks attract more capital [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue facing downward pressure in the short term, with the key factors being the stock market's performance and the sustainability of loose liquidity [3] - Structural opportunities may arise, particularly in the short to medium-term credit bonds supported by ample liquidity, which may exhibit a "more gains than losses" trend [3] - If the stock market maintains a strong oscillating pattern, long-term bonds may face ongoing pressure and repricing risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has regained upward momentum in July, supported by a low interest rate environment and a recovery in risk appetite, with expectations for incremental policies to potentially break the current sideways trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - After breaking through the March high, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations but continued to trend upwards, reaching recent highs [1]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with sectors like non-bank financials, media, and military industry showing signs of recovery [1]. - The upcoming policy window in July is expected to further support the market's gradual upward trajectory [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market is likely to see a thematic event-driven approach in July, with a high probability of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [2]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2]. 2. Robotics, with a trend towards domestic production and integration into daily life, particularly in humanoid and functional robots [2]. 3. Semiconductor localization, emphasizing semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. Military industry, with expectations for order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports across various sub-sectors [2]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continued upward trend, with electronic and other high-elasticity sectors leading the gains [3]. - Despite some fluctuations, the overall market confidence has strengthened, with over 3,200 stocks rising, indicating a positive earning effect [3]. - Leading sectors included electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like coal, transportation, and banking faced declines [3].

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Insights - The report by CITIC Securities highlights the changing dynamics of global stock markets, indicating a shift from a "single core" investment strategy to a "regional diversification" approach, particularly in developed markets [3] - In emerging markets, there is a notable concentration in Asia, with China, India, and Taiwan collectively accounting for over 66% of the market [3] Market Structure - In developed markets, the weight of the US remains high at 71.46%, but has decreased, while Japan, France, and other developed markets are gaining weight [3] - The technology sector continues to dominate the global market, with information technology and finance accounting for over 42% in developed markets [3] - Emerging markets show a rise in technology and stable finance sectors, while resource sectors maintain relative strength [3] Regional Characteristics - China focuses on technology and manufacturing, showing high capital concentration and increasing capital attractiveness [3] - India's market structure is balanced with active consumption, finance, and industry sectors, benefiting from domestic demand and demographic advantages [3] - Japan's market is characterized by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, reflecting traditional manufacturing strengths [3] - Hong Kong and Singapore maintain their status as financial centers, with telecommunications and finance leading in market capitalization and trading [3] - Australia continues to exhibit resource-oriented characteristics, while Southeast Asia's market structure is fragmented and less active, indicating a developing capital market [3] Valuation Levels - Global stock market valuations are generally rising, with significant differentiation at the industry level [4] - The US market shows high valuations and strong profitability, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 PE ratios exceeding 25 and 33, respectively, and ROE above 18% [4] - European markets have moderate valuations, with Germany's DAX high but limited profitability, while UK and French markets exhibit lower valuations and earnings [4] - Asian markets show significant valuation and profitability disparities, with South Korea being attractively valued but with weak earnings, while India sees a valuation decline [4] - The technology sector shows notable valuation differences, with Germany at historical highs and South Korea undervalued; the financial sector in the US and Australia is highly valued, while some Southeast Asian markets are significantly undervalued [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rebound, with the Meijing Brand 100 Index rising 1.02% this week, closing at 1096.7 points [1][2] - The easing of external tariff pressures and the end of the earnings season are expected to lead to a recovery in risk appetite in the A-share market [1][6] - The index saw 67 stocks increase in value, with notable gains from Oriental Overseas International (19.30%), NetEase (16.07%), and China Pacific Insurance (10.20%) [2][3] Group 2 - The shipping sector benefited significantly from the recent US-China tariff adjustments, with stocks like Oriental Overseas International and China Merchants Industry seeing substantial price increases [7] - China Pacific Insurance and China Taiping Insurance also experienced over 5% growth, driven by improved market sentiment and better-than-expected earnings reports [7][8] - The Tencent Holdings stock saw a market value increase of 123.13 billion, leading the market in value growth this week [4] Group 3 - The insurance sector is expected to attract more investment as it is currently underrepresented in public funds, with potential for rebalancing of capital flows [8][9] - The non-bank financial ETFs are gaining attention, particularly those tracking the insurance sector, as they are expected to perform well with economic recovery [9][11] - The China Securities Insurance Index and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index both have significant weight in major insurance companies, indicating their importance in the market [10][12]