Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment shows a "rebound in risk appetite," supported by lower-than-expected September core CPI data in the U.S., which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next week and in December [1] - Positive outcomes from the China-U.S. trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur suggest a potential ongoing improvement in China-U.S. relations, boosting market risk appetite and benefiting cyclical assets and the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] Group 2 - The Mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the China Securities Non-Ferrous Index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies with a higher proportion of "gold, copper, and rare earths" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - Last week, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. The main reasons were that China and the US were expected to restart a new round of negotiations, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The dovish officials of the Federal Reserve still actively predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year. China's export growth rate rebounded in September, and stronger fiscal policies would support foreign trade and employment. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of the mining end this year was less than 1%, and the output growth of the global smelting end was very limited. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained. With the slowdown of macro - disturbances and the strong support of the cost end, it was expected that the copper prices would turn to a volatile upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 10th to October 17th, LME copper rose from $10,374/ton to $10,607/ton, an increase of 2.25%; COMEX copper rose from 484.5 cents/pound to 499.75 cents/pound, an increase of 3.15%; SHFE copper fell from 85,910 yuan/ton to 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%; international copper remained unchanged at 73,880 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 7.96. The LME spot premium/discount changed from -$31.19/ton to -$16.83/ton, a change of -46.04%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount increased from 20 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 17th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 692,528 tons, a total increase of 2.35%. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons (-1.56%), COMEX inventory increased by 6,056 short tons (1.78%), SHFE inventory increased by 550 tons (0.50%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 11,500 tons (13.07%) [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price trend reasons**: The copper prices fluctuated in a range last week. The US government shutdown led to the postponement of important economic data, which might make the Fed's future policy path lose guidance. The market had fully priced in a small interest rate cut in October. China and the US agreed to conduct a new round of consultations as soon as possible. China's export growth rate rebounded, and the policy tone of stable growth and anti - involution was clear, which would boost the macro - expectation. Fundamentally, after the serious accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, the interference rate of major global mines continued to rise, the inventory in non - US regions was low, the domestic refined copper output declined, and the near - month futures market maintained a flat - water structure [2][7]. - **Macro - aspect**: China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fed's dovish officials advocated interest rate cuts. The latest Fed's Beige Book showed that the Trump administration's tariff increase was pushing up inflation, and important economic data were missing during the government shutdown. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% but emphasized that the US tariff increase and trade protectionism were dragging down the growth. China's export in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export of high - tech products and green products showed good growth [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: After the accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, and some mines such as Panama's copper mine and TECK also had production problems. It was expected that the third - quarter reports of mainstream mining enterprises would continue to lower the production guidance. In terms of refined copper, due to the shortage of raw materials, the domestic smelting output was expected to decline slightly from October to November. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained [9]. Industry News - Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco proposed to sell copper to its European customers at a record - high premium of $325/ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. European largest copper smelting company Aurubis would also charge a record - high premium of $315/ton for refined copper from its European customers next year, due to concerns about copper supply shortage next year [11]. - Rio Tinto's copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 204,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11%. The copper production of its Kennecott project in the US decreased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter due to engineering restrictions and maintenance. The copper production of its Escondida copper mine in Chile increased year - on - year, with the concentrate output increasing slightly and the refined copper output increasing mainly due to the release of project capacity. The copper production of its OT copper mine in Mongolia increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, setting a new record high [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [14][17][21].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core driver of the current rise in equity assets is not due to macro liquidity excess but rather a recovery in risk appetite since the "anti-involution" policy was implemented[5] - The market is primarily driven by internal fund reallocations and leverage rather than large-scale inflows from external funds[5] - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted to a "see-saw" effect, indicating that growth factor changes are now dominant, contrasting with the liquidity-driven environment of 2015[13] Group 2: Price Stabilization and PPI Insights - Price stabilization is expected to continue into Q4, supported by significant differentiation in pricing between domestic and external demand[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is influenced by overseas inflation, with a notable divergence between Chinese and U.S. PPI trends[25] - The PPI gap between different industries, such as non-ferrous and ferrous metals, has reached 20%, a historically unprecedented level[25] Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - As of September 14, 2025, new equity fund sales reached 42.85 billion units, a significant increase from less than 10 billion units at the beginning of 2024, although still below the peak levels seen in 2015 and 2021[18] - The margin ratio for internal funds reached 294.17% on August 24, 2025, nearing historical peak levels, indicating high leverage in the market[18] Group 4: Future Projections - If capacity utilization rises above 75%, a 1.35% increase is expected, with a corresponding price increase of approximately 1.5% due to the price elasticity of capacity utilization[40] - The stock market's upward trend since September 2024 is compared to the 1999 market rally, suggesting a potential further increase of around 30% if the current trajectory continues[55][58]

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded while the spot gold's upward momentum weakened, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations between $3350 and $3375 [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has boosted gold bulls, but a recovery in risk appetite has suppressed safe-haven buying [1] - Technical analysts suggest that spot gold may rise slightly to the range of $3383 to $3388 per ounce, completing a rebound triggered by the support level of $3339 [3][4] Group 2 - Support for gold is at $3355, and a drop below this level would indicate the completion of the rebound and a return to the downtrend that began at $3408 [5] - The daily chart's wave pattern suggests a potential rise around $3454, as the fifth wave may be unfolding [6] - If gold fails to break through the resistance level of $3376, this possibility will be negated [7] Group 3 - Reports indicate that the US government may take several weeks to announce the results of investigations into tariffs on drug imports and specific industries, delaying initial commitments [2] - European officials and industry insiders suggest that the focus of the US government is currently on the upcoming US-Russia summit, which may further postpone announcements [2] - It is expected that the US government will first release results of the national security investigation related to semiconductors before addressing the pharmaceutical sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates, driven by increased risk appetite, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and heightened commodity inflation sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, with the commodity market also rising, while the bond market faced pressure with yields increasing [1] - The 10-year government bond yield approached 1.72%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 1.93%, breaking the recent narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Despite a recovery in the afternoon, the overall trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" continues, with the 10-year yield falling back below 1.7% [1][3] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the current bond market adjustment reflects two main characteristics: rising risk appetite and historically low credit spreads, making the bond market structurally fragile [2] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with liquidity staying reasonably ample, as evidenced by the DR007 operating around 1.5% [2] - There is a shift in asset preferences, with bonds under pressure due to insufficient returns and unfavorable market conditions, while commodities and stocks attract more capital [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue facing downward pressure in the short term, with the key factors being the stock market's performance and the sustainability of loose liquidity [3] - Structural opportunities may arise, particularly in the short to medium-term credit bonds supported by ample liquidity, which may exhibit a "more gains than losses" trend [3] - If the stock market maintains a strong oscillating pattern, long-term bonds may face ongoing pressure and repricing risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has regained upward momentum in July, supported by a low interest rate environment and a recovery in risk appetite, with expectations for incremental policies to potentially break the current sideways trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - After breaking through the March high, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations but continued to trend upwards, reaching recent highs [1]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with sectors like non-bank financials, media, and military industry showing signs of recovery [1]. - The upcoming policy window in July is expected to further support the market's gradual upward trajectory [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market is likely to see a thematic event-driven approach in July, with a high probability of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [2]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2]. 2. Robotics, with a trend towards domestic production and integration into daily life, particularly in humanoid and functional robots [2]. 3. Semiconductor localization, emphasizing semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. Military industry, with expectations for order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports across various sub-sectors [2]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continued upward trend, with electronic and other high-elasticity sectors leading the gains [3]. - Despite some fluctuations, the overall market confidence has strengthened, with over 3,200 stocks rising, indicating a positive earning effect [3]. - Leading sectors included electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like coal, transportation, and banking faced declines [3].

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Core Insights - The report by CITIC Securities highlights the changing dynamics of global stock markets, indicating a shift from a "single core" investment strategy to a "regional diversification" approach, particularly in developed markets [3] - In emerging markets, there is a notable concentration in Asia, with China, India, and Taiwan collectively accounting for over 66% of the market [3] Market Structure - In developed markets, the weight of the US remains high at 71.46%, but has decreased, while Japan, France, and other developed markets are gaining weight [3] - The technology sector continues to dominate the global market, with information technology and finance accounting for over 42% in developed markets [3] - Emerging markets show a rise in technology and stable finance sectors, while resource sectors maintain relative strength [3] Regional Characteristics - China focuses on technology and manufacturing, showing high capital concentration and increasing capital attractiveness [3] - India's market structure is balanced with active consumption, finance, and industry sectors, benefiting from domestic demand and demographic advantages [3] - Japan's market is characterized by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, reflecting traditional manufacturing strengths [3] - Hong Kong and Singapore maintain their status as financial centers, with telecommunications and finance leading in market capitalization and trading [3] - Australia continues to exhibit resource-oriented characteristics, while Southeast Asia's market structure is fragmented and less active, indicating a developing capital market [3] Valuation Levels - Global stock market valuations are generally rising, with significant differentiation at the industry level [4] - The US market shows high valuations and strong profitability, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 PE ratios exceeding 25 and 33, respectively, and ROE above 18% [4] - European markets have moderate valuations, with Germany's DAX high but limited profitability, while UK and French markets exhibit lower valuations and earnings [4] - Asian markets show significant valuation and profitability disparities, with South Korea being attractively valued but with weak earnings, while India sees a valuation decline [4] - The technology sector shows notable valuation differences, with Germany at historical highs and South Korea undervalued; the financial sector in the US and Australia is highly valued, while some Southeast Asian markets are significantly undervalued [4]