1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Commodities may continue to move in a volatile manner with differentiated trends among varieties. Favorable factors include China's introduction of a package of policy measures to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and improve domestic demand, and the China - US high - level economic and trade negotiations easing market concerns. Unfavorable factors are the Fed's possible continued wait - and - see stance, complex overseas geopolitical factors, and increased risks of crude oil production increase due to internal disagreements within OPEC+ [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART ONE: Main Views - **Commodities Outlook**: The start of high - level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US can ease market concerns, but the Fed's new stage of assessing "dual risks", complex overseas geopolitical situations, and OPEC+ internal disagreements pose challenges to the overall commodity trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: This week, domestic commodities continued to fluctuate, with industrial products oscillating and agricultural products weakening slightly. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and the US economy showed a "strong service, weak manufacturing" structure with a record - high trade deficit. Domestically, a package of financial policies was introduced to support the economy, and the domestic consumer market remained resilient during the May Day holiday [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Fed Policy**: On May 7, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with unchanged balance - sheet reduction. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see stance in the short term as the key to US economic growth and inflation lies in tariff policies [4][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US April ISM services PMI was 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI contracted for two consecutive months to 48.7. In March 2025, the US trade deficit was $140.5 billion, a 14.0% month - on - month increase, highlighting the structural contradictions in US trade policies [4][11][12]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Consumer Market**: During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. Domestic consumption, especially service consumption, remained resilient [4][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: On May 7, a package of macro - monetary policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. These policies are expected to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and support long - term economic transformation. The April domestic manufacturing PMI fell back to the contraction range due to external demand contraction [4][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of May 9, PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively. The 30 - day moving average of vehicle manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales showed certain growth rates [29][35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of May 9, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index showed certain trends [37].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a series of macro monetary policies aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting economic growth through interest rate cuts and structural monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: Quantity Policies - The first category includes quantity-type policies, such as a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [3]. Group 2: Price Policies - The policy interest rate will be lowered by 0.1 percentage points, reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - The structural monetary policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down from 1.75% to 1.5% [3]. - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers on loans over five years decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [3]. Group 3: Structural Policies - An additional 300 billion yuan will be allocated for technology innovation and technological transformation re-loans, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [3]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care will be established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas [4]. - The re-loan quota for agricultural and small enterprises will be increased by 300 billion yuan, complementing the reduction in re-loan rates to support lending to these sectors [4]. - The optimization of two capital market support monetary policy tools will merge the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase loans, resulting in a total quota of 800 billion yuan [4]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be created, allowing the central bank to provide low-cost re-loan funds to purchase these bonds, thereby supporting technology innovation enterprises and equity investment institutions [4].