Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policy measures in the first half of the year, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments to support economic recovery [1][2] - The report indicates that the PBOC aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity is abundant and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [1][2] - As of June, key financial indicators such as social financing scale and broad money supply have shown stable growth, with GDP increasing by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive economic trend [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC has cumulatively reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, leading to significant declines in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The report highlights a shift in loan distribution, with a growing proportion directed towards technology, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, reflecting a structural optimization in credit allocation [5][6] - The PBOC is focusing on enhancing direct financing, with the proportion of corporate bonds and stocks in social financing increasing by 4.4 percentage points since the end of 2018 [6] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting high-quality development through financial services, particularly in technology and service consumption sectors [7][8] - The PBOC has introduced new tools to enhance financial support for consumption and has noted the potential for service consumption to drive economic growth as income levels rise [8] - The report also addresses the need to improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation, particularly in light of the ongoing economic transition [4][5] Group 4 - The PBOC is actively addressing issues related to "involution" in competition, which can impact economic balance and pricing [10][11] - Recent policies have been introduced to regulate corporate competition and improve payment terms within supply chains, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [11] - The report indicates that these measures are expected to enhance the quality and efficiency of industrial chains and promote more rational competition among enterprises [11]

近日召开的中央政治局会议强调，要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，并提出 要"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"，为下半年货币政策走向定下基调。受访专家认为，应继续发挥好货 币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，并更多采用结构性工具，突出支持科技创新、提振消费等主线，助 力经济结构转型和产业升级，提升新旧动能转换效能。 强化牵引带动作用 近年来，人民银行在实施总量政策的同时，围绕支持重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节，创设和实施结构 性货币政策工具，以进一步提升金融服务对经济结构调整、经济高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 今年5月份，人民银行创设了服务消费与养老再贷款、科技创新债券风险分担工具。其中，服务消费与 养老再贷款额度5000亿元，用于激励引导金融机构加大对服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支持；科 技创新债券风险分担工具支持股权投资机构发行科技创新债券融资。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，结构性货币政策工具有助于强化对金融机构的政策激励，进一步发挥货币 政策对金融机构的牵引带动作用，激励金融机构加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持服务。 截至今年一季度末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，已成为人民银行重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies under the leadership of the central government, resulting in a stable economic performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [2][3]. - Key measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3]. Financing and Interest Rates - The PBOC aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit, with efforts to lower the overall financing costs in society. In May, the policy interest rate was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, and the rates for structural monetary policy tools and personal housing provident fund loans were lowered by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. Credit Structure and Risk Management - The PBOC is focusing on optimizing the credit structure by establishing a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumption and elderly care, and increasing the re-loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and resolution, with ongoing improvements to the financial risk monitoring and assessment systems [3][5]. External Environment and Future Outlook - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. However, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, and the PBOC is committed to maintaining strategic focus and advancing key strategic tasks related to modernization [5]. - The PBOC plans to enhance the monetary policy framework, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and ensuring the stability and continuity of policies to support employment, businesses, and market expectations [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain a stable financial environment [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank's report highlights that the monetary policy has entered a phase of "moderate easing," with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and the use of various monetary policy tools to support high-quality economic development [2][3]. - A series of monetary policy measures have been implemented in the first half of the year, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to structural monetary policy tools, aimed at enhancing financial services for the real economy [2][3]. - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating stable financial growth [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Environment and Challenges - The report acknowledges a complex and severe external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while also noting the resilience and potential of the domestic economy [5][6]. - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable growth in financing and money supply, while also focusing on optimizing the structure of financial resources to support innovation and green development [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The central bank plans to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, ensuring the effective transmission of previous policies and enhancing flexibility in response to economic conditions [6][7]. - There is a strong emphasis on aligning macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and industrial policies, to create a cohesive approach to economic recovery [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and structural transformation, while addressing financial risks and enhancing financial services [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC has implemented a series of monetary policy measures, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to ensure ample liquidity and reduce financing costs [1][6]. - As of June, loans in technology, green finance, inclusive small and micro enterprises, elderly care, and digital economy sectors grew by 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, 43%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC has made significant progress in mitigating financial risks associated with financing platforms and has established a macro-prudential and financial stability committee to enhance risk management [2][3]. - The focus is on orderly risk resolution in key institutions and regions, with a commitment to supporting the stable operation of capital markets [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Sector Reform and Opening Up - The PBOC is advancing the construction of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and enhancing the international use of the Renminbi [3][4]. - Efforts are being made to deepen international financial cooperation and improve global financial governance, including establishing annual meetings with European central bank leaders [3][9]. Group 4: Financial Management and Service Improvement - The PBOC is accelerating important legislative reforms and enhancing the management of payment markets to ensure effective governance and service delivery [4][9]. - The development of digital currency and cash management services is being prioritized to improve overall financial service levels [4][9]. Group 5: Party Governance and Internal Management - The PBOC is committed to deepening the implementation of strict party governance and enhancing internal management mechanisms to ensure compliance and operational efficiency [5][10]. - Continuous education on party regulations and internal audits are being emphasized to maintain discipline and integrity within the organization [5][10].

2025 年 07 月 31 日 宏观点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 长期无虞 短期无忧 ——7 月政治局会议解读 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 《宏观深度研究：土地市场的新变化*夏磊》—— 2025-05-12 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中 国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共 中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署 下半年经济工作。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 国海证券股份有限公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policies aimed at supporting the real economy, with significant effects observed in the first half of 2025. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has adopted a supportive monetary policy stance, having cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, leading to a decrease in loan market rates by 115 basis points for 1-year loans and 130 basis points for loans over 5 years [2] - A comprehensive set of financial support measures was introduced in May, focusing on maintaining liquidity, adjusting interest rates, and enhancing support for key sectors such as consumption and technology innovation [2][4] Group 2: Financial Data and Economic Impact - In the first half of 2025, the average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [3] - The structure of credit has improved, with new loans primarily directed towards manufacturing and infrastructure, and significant growth in green, inclusive, and digital loans, with increases of 27.4%, 11.2%, and 9.5% respectively [3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue its moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply with economic growth and price stability [4] - Emphasis will be placed on supporting key areas such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and small and micro enterprises, while ensuring effective transmission of monetary policy [4][10] Group 4: Support for Consumption and Innovation - The PBOC has established a 500 billion yuan fund for service consumption and elderly care to enhance financial support for sectors like hospitality, education, and healthcare, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [6] - As of May 2025, loans for technology innovation and transformation reached 1.7 trillion yuan, supporting 1.5 million small and medium-sized tech enterprises [7] Group 5: Market Stability and Risk Management - The Chinese financial market has shown resilience amid global uncertainties, with the RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.2 against the USD [12] - The bond market has remained stable, with banks increasing their bond holdings to manage risks and ensure sustainable support for the real economy [13]

Core Points - The central viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the stable growth of financial metrics in China, with a focus on the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy and enhance domestic demand [1][2][3]. Financial Metrics - In the first half of the year, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with the total social financing stock reaching 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year growth [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, showing an 8.3% year-on-year increase [1]. - The structure of loans has improved, with corporate loans accounting for 89.5% of new loans, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. Loan Distribution - New loans have been primarily directed towards key sectors such as manufacturing and infrastructure, indicating a continued optimization of loan distribution [1][2]. - The financial system has effectively met the funding needs of the real economy, with a notable increase in government bond financing [2]. Monetary Policy Tools - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented structural monetary policy tools to support major strategies and sectors, including real estate and capital markets [3][4]. - New initiatives include a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care, as well as risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds [3]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that financial metrics will continue to grow at a reasonable pace, supported by strong internal economic dynamics and ongoing policy effects [2][4]. - The PBOC aims to maintain a balance between total and structural monetary policy tools, focusing on technology innovation and consumption [4]. Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of market forces in determining the exchange rate while maintaining stability and preventing excessive fluctuations [5]. - The central bank's stance is to avoid using currency depreciation as a means to gain international competitive advantage [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future direction of China's monetary policy, emphasizing the need for continued moderate easing to support economic recovery and growth [2][12]. Financial Statistics - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.74 trillion yuan, up by 279.6 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - By the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3%, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6% [2][10]. Loan and Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down by about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down by 60 basis points [3]. - The financing structure has improved, with significant growth in loans for small and micro enterprises, as well as for the manufacturing and technology sectors [3]. Government Bond Financing - In June, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 1.35 trillion yuan, which is an increase of about 5 billion yuan year-on-year, playing a significant role in driving social financing growth [5][9]. - By the end of June, government bonds accounted for 20.6% of the total social financing stock, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation and consumption expansion [12][13]. - There is an expectation for further structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and alleviate local debt risks, while maintaining a balance between financial support for the economy and the health of the financial system [12][14]. Economic Indicators and Consumer Demand - The article notes that consumer demand is expected to recover, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as subsidies for appliances and vehicles [8][19]. - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the core CPI continued to rise [19].

Core Insights - As of the end of May, the total amount of loans for technological innovation and technological transformation signed between banks and enterprises reached 1.7 trillion yuan, which is 1.9 times that of the end of 2024 [3][4] - By the end of June, 288 entities had issued approximately 600 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds in the bond market, with over 400 billion yuan issued in the interbank market [4][5] - The People's Bank of China plans to continue providing strong financial support for high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [3] Group 1: Technological Innovation Loans - The policy for technological innovation and technological transformation re-loans has been optimized, resulting in a loan balance of 614 billion yuan, supporting 15,000 small and medium-sized technology enterprises with their first loans [3][4] - The loans have provided funding support for 3,983 key equipment upgrade projects in various sectors [3] Group 2: Technology Innovation Bonds - The establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market aims to support technology finance through differentiated arrangements for bond issuance and trading [3] - The risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds has been created to support bond issuance by equity investment institutions, with the People's Bank providing low-cost re-loan funds [4][5] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has not only promoted the development of emerging industries but also supported traditional industries in applying new technologies [4] - The next steps include leveraging the risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to foster the development of the technology innovation bond market and improve the financial market ecosystem supporting technological innovation [5]