长安研究——钢矿周报 钢矿周报 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 旺季及长假特征或更趋明显叠加稳增长政策或加码发力，钢矿期价 观点： 钢材：尽管统计局最新公布数据显示我国 8 月钢材终端 需求仍然承压，钢联口径螺纹表需上周也延续回落。但一方面， 进入 9 月中下旬"金九银十"旺季特征或更趋明显，尤其是临 近十一长假终端和贸易商补库需求也或逐步释放，钢材尤其是 建材需求有望迎来边际改善。另一方面，宏观经济指标承压我 国经济稳增长压力加大下，以货币政策、财政政策以及产业政 策为代表的我国宏观逆周期调节政策逐步加码也或为钢材需 求端提供支撑。一是美联储本周大概率重启降息或为我国央行 降准、降息打开空间；二是财政部有关负责人此前表示未来财 政政策发力空间依然充足，如在今年专门发行 5000 亿元特别 国债，预计可撬动信贷投放约 6 万亿元的基础上，提前下达部 分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度；三是 此前《中共中央国务院关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》对外 公布，以城市更新为代表的存量需求的挖掘以及以新型城镇化 为代表的增量需求的开拓，以及雅江水电站和国补等"两重两 新"政策效果或进一步加力 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP growth rate to reach 5.2% in the first half of this year, with potential for upward revision [1] - The shift in macroeconomic growth momentum from export-driven to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - The Chinese government plans to issue a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt this year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, which will support economic growth [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties and high base effects from last year may require further macroeconomic policy adjustments in the second half to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [2] - The central bank is expected to implement another round of "double cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) in the fourth quarter, with potential for two more rate cuts next year [2] - The consumer goods trade-in policy has already generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, nearing last year's total, indicating strong policy impact [2] Group 3 - Government consumption is projected to improve significantly this year, with an expected growth rate of 5% [3] - The central government has reserved sufficient fiscal tools to respond to potential uncertainties, allowing for support in case of a decline in durable goods consumption [3] - Investment remains a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with a framework assessing policy effectiveness based on funding, projects, and official incentives [3]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's import and export growth rates declined due to tariff impacts, with exports slowing and imports decreasing significantly, while trade surplus expanded substantially [1][4]. Exports: Tariff Impact and Declining Growth - In May, export value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a further slowdown of 3.3 percentage points from April, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [5] - The U.S. import demand weakened significantly, influenced by frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and increased operational costs due to trade uncertainties [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions, such as Europe (12%), ASEAN (14.8%), and Africa (33.3%), maintained strong growth, although the momentum may slow down in the future [5][8]. Import: Widening Decline - In May, the import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a widening decline of 3.2 percentage points [14] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 18.1%, with the decline expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to April, reflecting weak domestic demand [14] - Despite a significant decrease in imports from the U.S., imports from the EU showed a slight recovery, indicating a potential substitution effect [14]. Outlook: Export Pressure in the Second Half - Export growth is expected to further slow down in the second half of the year, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. remaining high at 41.2% [17] - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asia may disrupt China's foreign investment pace and affect exports through multinational supply chains [17].