Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash have not changed fundamentally. In the short term, they fluctuate strongly following the market sentiment. If the macro - expectation and sentiment weaken, the market may trade the oversupply fundamentals again. [5] - In the long run, the oversupply pattern of soda ash will further intensify, and the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. For glass, there are still supply disturbance expectations, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress the price. [5] - The current market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to operate with caution. The industry can consider seizing the opportunity of selling hedging at high prices. [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Soda Ash - **Demand Side**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. With the downward expectation of glass daily melting, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens. For light soda ash, the downstream procurement has little change overall, and the downstream demand has a downward trend after the previous restocking, and the factory inventory returns to the accumulation state. [4] - **Supply Side**: The previous supply reduction has recovered, and the daily output has returned to about 108,000 tons. The second - phase project of Yuanxing is progressing steadily, and the production capacity is gradually released, further intensifying the dynamic oversupply expectation. There is no obvious short - term production reduction from the upstream. [4] - **Market Performance**: The sharp rise in the futures market may drive the mid - stream to restock, forming a positive feedback between the futures and spot markets. It will fluctuate strongly in the short term following the market sentiment, but after the sentiment weakens, the oversupply fundamentals are expected to suppress the price. [4] Glass - **Demand Side**: There is still some pressure on the demand side. The deep - processing order data has decreased month - on - month, and the downstream demand is weaker year - on - year. After the decline in daily melting, the upstream inventory reduction is slow. The mid - stream inventory is still at a historical high, the downstream inventory is moderate, and the overall restocking ability is limited. The large mid - stream inventory will still suppress the glass valuation in the futures market. [4] - **Supply Side**: The profit of production lines is under pressure. Around January, the glass production lines experienced another wave of cold repairs, and the daily melting decreased from 155,000 tons to 151,500 tons. The upstream inventory reduction speed still needs to be observed. [4] - **Market Performance**: The rebound in the futures market drives the mid - stream to purchase goods, but the downstream's overall willingness to restock is still not strong. If the sentiment continues to be strong, the price may be supported in the short term. Once the commodity sentiment declines, the short - term weak fundamentals of glass will suppress the price. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, the market may focus on strong reality. With weakened foreign ore shipments, high short - term arrivals leading to inventory accumulation, and relatively high demand, the overall inventory accumulation pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments. After the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines in June, they will enter the maintenance period in early July, and overall foreign ore shipments will enter a phased decline cycle. However, due to the significant increase in shipments since late May, the arrival volume is expected to remain high in the short term, meaning near - end supply pressure remains, while the expected increase pressure in the far - month eases, which is conducive to a far - month rebound [3] Demand - China's daily average hot metal output has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, showing strong demand for iron ore and boosting the valuation level of the futures market. The current daily average hot metal output is 242.29 (month - on - month + 0.11). With a high profitability rate of steel mills, considerable blast furnace profits, comprehensive deep losses in the short - process steelmaking, and a significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will remain strong, and high demand will support the price [3] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has declined month - on - month, and the low - inventory management model continues. Daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills in the Northeast. As the month - on - month increase in arrival volume is greater than that in the port clearance volume, port inventory has increased slightly this period. It is expected that inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but due to high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3] Price - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is from 710 yuan/ton to 740 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE08 contract is from 93 to 97 US dollars/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro expectations have warmed up, and the rebound of carbon elements has driven the sector to strengthen. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectations. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to rise but may remain year - on - year reduced. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. The short - term coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded, and market sentiment has warmed up, but chasing long positions is not recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign iron ore has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady increase in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current profitability of steel mills is relatively high, and it is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend from a high level but with a gentle slope. High demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Steel mills currently maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The domestic demand level is still relatively high, and port inventories have continued to decline in the short term. With the increase in arrivals, port inventories are expected to accumulate slightly in the later stage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].