宏观预期转好

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黑色建材日报-20250703
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a volatile upward trend. Rumors of strict production - restriction measures in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region led to a significant increase in futures prices, especially in the steel market. The static fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, but attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, silicon - iron, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash were all affected by the policy statement of "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". The market sentiment was optimistic, but there are still uncertainties regarding whether over - capacity means backward capacity and how to solve the problem of insufficient downstream demand [6][10][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3065 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (2.064%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (1.753%). The positions of both increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar's apparent demand was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed due to increased production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated slightly [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 722.50 yuan/ton, up 1.98% (14.00). The position decreased by 6979 hands to 64.79 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output was 242.29 million tons. The terminal demand of five major steel products decreased slightly. Port inventory and port clearance increased, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Price**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) rose 1.99% to 5726 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) rose 3.15% to 5436 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is optimistic due to policy expectations. However, caution is needed for long - position follow - up, and short - position speculation should be on the sidelines. Enterprises with hedging profit margins can consider appropriate hedging [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2509) rose 5.73% to 8210 yuan/ton. The spot price also increased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend since November 2024. Although it showed strength, it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line. Similar to other commodities, there are uncertainties in the market, and hedging can be considered for enterprises with profit margins [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - position should avoid and wait and see due to policy - driven price rebounds [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand continued to decline, but the supply - demand margin improved slightly. It is expected to rebound following the glass [16].
LPG:宏观预期转好,底部支撑走强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 01:46
商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 6 日 期货研究 研 究 所 LPG:宏观预期转好,底部支撑走强 | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG 基本面数据 | 陈鑫超 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 | chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,089 | 0.02% | 4,119 | 0.73% | | | PG2508 | 3,987 | -0.18% | 4,016 | 0.73% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 62,874 | 448 | 61,846 | -2226 | | | PG2508 | 7,287 | -1921 | 38,659 | 528 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 491 | | 542 ...
长江期货PTA产业周报:宏观预期转好,短期偏强震荡-20250519
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:20
长江期货PTA产业周报 宏观预期转好,短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-19 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员: 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人: 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾: 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可,市场低位震荡 PX:上周PX价格延续反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产,周度产量减少, 社会库存缓降,PXN略有回升,总体而言较前一周基本略有好转,在春检时期,短期市场价格反弹。 PTA:上周PTA价格持续回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹;供应装置方面,恒力惠州2#重启,恒力石化 2#检修,百宏恢复,PTA开工回升,下游聚酯负荷小幅降低,综合供需PTA去库延续,价格持续上涨。 乙二醇:上周乙二醇价格大幅反弹,期初受国际油价上涨,成本支撑价格走强;而后随着宏观面逐步转好,逢 低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势,期现价格开始反弹,但由于港口数据回升 ...