一、美联储政策：内部分歧加剧，滞胀风险成为核心关切 2025年12月，中信保诚基金经理顾凡丁在投资者分享会中，围绕"美联储降息展望和黄金资产配置"展开 深度解读。会议从美联储政策的内部分歧、黄金的短中长期逻辑，到大宗商品在通胀周期中的配置框 架，层层剖析当前市场核心矛盾与资产布局机遇。以下为分享内容精编： 顾凡丁指出，近期市场对美联储降息的预期呈现"过山车"式波动，其背后是经济数据、政策博弈与政治 压力的多重碰撞： 二、黄金：短中长期逻辑共振，货币体系重塑支撑长期韧性 Q1：黄金情绪"过热"，短期如何把握时机？ 针对黄金创历史新高后的配置价值，顾凡丁从三个维度论证其认为黄金仍可能是资产组合中的"压舱 石"： 顾凡丁：短期波动可能放大，或采取"定投+关键事件策略"，在议息会议前后可以根据自身的风险承受 能力并结合自己的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况分批布局。 三、大宗商品：通胀周期下的战略配置，三层框架精耕细作 Q2：黄金涨幅已高，性价比是否不如白银和有色金属？ 对于大宗商品的配置意义，顾凡丁提出"Why-When-How"三层分析框架： 注：如上内容仅用于展示基金经理的投资思路和当前市场研判，不作为投 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Aluminum Market [1][3][17] Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift in Precious Metals Valuation Framework**: Since 2022, geopolitical events and de-globalization have led central banks and large institutions to increase gold allocations, significantly impacting gold prices [1][6] - **Market Conditions Similar to 2004-2006**: Current market conditions exhibit similarities to the 2004-2006 period, characterized by liquidity excess and the development of commodity derivatives, which have driven gold prices higher [1][5] - **Long-term Gold Price Projections**: Without clear interest rate cuts, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,500. If a rate cut cycle begins and inflation expectations adjust to around 3%, gold prices could rise to between $3,600 and $3,800 [10][11] - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: China's electrolytic aluminum production is nearing its peak, with limited new global production expected. The aluminum market is anticipated to remain in a state of continuous supply-demand imbalance [3][17] - **Investment Recommendations**: It is advised to allocate investments in precious metals-related assets, such as gold or related stocks, due to their strong hedging capabilities against macroeconomic risks [3][15] Additional Important Insights - **Recent Factors Influencing Gold Prices**: Recent increases in gold prices are attributed to poor economic data and heightened interest in safe-haven assets due to anticipated interest rate cuts [2][11] - **Long-term Gold Demand**: Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will support long-term price increases. The global central bank gold reserve ratio is projected to require 20 years of sustained purchases to return to Cold War levels [9][12] - **Aluminum Demand Outlook**: Despite concerns in the domestic market regarding demand from sectors like photovoltaics and automotive, the actual situation is not as pessimistic as anticipated, with signs of recovery in construction demand [17] - **Copper and Aluminum Price Trends**: Prices for copper and aluminum are expected to experience high-level fluctuations, driven by demand changes, particularly in the latter part of the year [19] - **Silver Market Performance**: The silver market is gaining attention, with expectations of stronger price increases if economic conditions stabilize, as silver typically outperforms gold in such scenarios [13][14] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to consider precious metals as a strategic component of their portfolios, particularly in light of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for significant price appreciation in the sector [15][16]

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Dynamics - The dollar exhibited a complex and varied performance in the foreign exchange market, influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy expectations, and global economic adjustments [1] - On June 25, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1712, down 0.006000 from the previous day, reflecting a decline of 0.0112% [1] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% on June 23, closing at 98.411, indicating a broader trend of weakening against other currencies [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting the Dollar - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has shown weakness, with non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [3] - High interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve are accumulating internal risks within the U.S. economy, leading to reduced demand for dollar assets and downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Its Implications - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a core driver of the dollar's performance, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in September 2025 [4] - A rate cut would narrow the interest rate differential between the dollar and non-dollar currencies, likely leading to a decline in the dollar's strong position [4] Group 4: Global Economic Context and Dollar's Challenges - Since late 2024, the dollar index has entered a downward trend due to a decrease in the U.S. economy's global weight and challenges such as manufacturing hollowing out [5] - The restructuring of global supply chains and rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to a high-risk environment, prompting investors to seek diversification away from the dollar [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index - Technical analysis indicates a clear downtrend for the dollar index, with bearish signals across multiple time frames, including a breakdown of previous upward trend lines [8] - Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest continued bearish momentum for the dollar [8] Group 6: Future Outlook for the Dollar - The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain, with potential support if U.S. economic data improves and inflation is controlled [9] - Long-term challenges include structural issues like high debt levels and trade deficits, which may limit the dollar's upside potential [9] - The competitive landscape in the international monetary system is intensifying, with other currencies potentially gaining attractiveness as global economic reforms progress [9]