Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.22% and an amplitude of 1.65%, closing at 123,450 yuan/ton. The main contract of stainless steel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.39% and an amplitude of 1.74%, closing at 12,720 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the bilateral trade agreement between the US and the UK eased market tensions, the US dollar index rose, and China plans to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. Fundamentally, Indonesia's PNBP policy increased the cost of nickel resource supply, domestic smelters' costs rose, and some faced losses. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel - iron accelerated its release, and production recovered significantly. On the demand side, stainless steel prices weakened, and there was an expectation of production cuts. The demand for new energy vehicles continued to climb but had a limited impact. Recently, domestic inventories fluctuated and decreased, while overseas inventories continued to accumulate. Technically, it is expected to adjust weakly [7]. - For both Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions with a light position [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.22% and an amplitude of 1.65%, closing at 123,450 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors, policy in Indonesia, cost changes, supply and demand situations, and inventory trends all affect the market. Technically, it is expected to adjust weakly [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see or take short positions with a light position [7]. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of stainless steel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.39% and an amplitude of 1.74%, closing at 12,720 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material costs, supply, demand, and inventory changes affect the market. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see or take short positions with a light position [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of May 9, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 950 yuan/nickel, down 25 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel was 123,450 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,720 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [13]. - **Basis Changes**: As of May 9, the basis of electrolytic nickel was 1,375 yuan/ton, and the basis of stainless steel was 980 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai Nickel decreased, and that of stainless steel increased [16]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of May 9, the price ratio of Shanghai Nickel to stainless steel was 9.71, down 0.06 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.1 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [20]. - **Net Long Position Changes**: As of May 9, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Nickel increased, and that of stainless steel also increased [26]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel**: As of May 2, the nickel ore inventory in major ports was 685.43 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from last week. As of May 9, the production profit of electrowon nickel was 675 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from last week. China's electrolytic nickel production and imports decreased significantly [34][33][36]. - **Nickel Inventory**: As of May 9, the LME nickel inventory was 23,426 tons, down 3,740 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,808 tons, down 2,786 tons from last week [42][43]. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Trade**: In April 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 350.25 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In March 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 124,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,900 tons; the export volume was 412,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178,100 tons [48]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of May 9, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 339,134 tons, an increase of 10,240 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 612,232 tons, an increase of 14,674 tons from last week [53]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of May 9, the production profit of stainless steel was - 257 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Downstream Industries**: The real estate industry recovered slowly, while the home appliance industry showed signs of recovery in the peak season. In March 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the production of construction machinery also increased [60][64].